Meyers Offensive Resurgence and Other Tidbits
We will look at three brief Astros’ notes with a statistical focus. Jake Meyers is enjoying an offensive renaissance this season. So that will be the first thing we examine. This article will also look at some metrics for the rookie Cam Smith and the potential for a future Brice Matthews call up.
- Jake Meyers
Jake Meyers is 3d among Astros in wRC+ (119) and 2d in batting average (.295). This is surprising because Meyers’ career batting average is .240 and his career wRC+ is 92. So he is definitely doing something good at the plate. We know about Meyers’ defense, which has always been excellent,, but what has he changed on offense this season?
One method of analysis is to examine Meyers’ bat tracking stats (Statcast) to determine if he has made changes to his swing or stance. His stance is slightly more closed than 2025 but only by 1 degree, and most of the other tracking indicators are about the same as 2024. I doubt that he has made major changes to his swing. My subjective conclusion is that Meyers has realized what type of hitter he is and now tries to approach his at bats more efficiently.
Meyers is not a high bat speed guy. He has the lowest bat speed on the Astros and is in the lowest 8% of hitters in bat speed. Meyers also is in the lowest third of hitters in average exit velocity and barrel rate. But he also is among the top one-third of hitters in squared up rate and ranks first on the Astros is squared up swing percentage. That may sound contradictory, but it isn’t. The squared up rate leader list normally doesn’t include a lot of high bat speed hitters. Fangraphs has mused that squared up rate is a mathematical expression of Luis Arraez. Arraez ordinarily is at the top of the squared up board but near the bottom of bat speed. Bat control is his claim to fame. Unlike bat speed and barrels, squared up rate has zero correlation with home runs. But if you have good bat control and can poke the ball flush around the diamond, squared up rate should help the batting average.
Perhaps Meyers is leaning into this profile. He hits a lot of groundballs: he has the highest GB/Fly rate among Astros qualified batters (this excludes Cam Smith, who has the highest GB/Fly rate). Meyers has the lowest pulled ball rate among Astros’ hitters. Jake also has the highest line drive rate (25%) among qualified Astros batters. He does hit the ball all around the field, as his current spray chart shows.
Baseball Savant
But Meyers did change his approach in a big way. If you want to maximize your production as a contact hitter, the best path may be improvement in plate discipline. And that’s what Meyers has done so far this season. Jake’s K% is the lowest of his career (17%) and his BB% is the highest of his career (9%). Meyers is in the top 20% of batters in chase rate.
According to Statcast, these current plate discipline metrics are the best of Meyers’ career: lowest chase rate, highest zone contact rate, and lowest whiff rate. Meyers’ swing rate is his lowest since 2021.
It appears that the improved plate discipline is the major factor in his offensive improvement.
2. Cam Smith
Cam Smith is one of the interesting story lines for the Astros this year. The young rookie was placed on the Astros’ roster at an early stage of his career. The fact that he was playing in the college world series at this time last year tells you that he is a special player. Currently he is exactly average on offense (wRC+ 100), but his defense is well above average. Statcast ranks his “runs prevented” (4) as 16th among all outfielders. Some of his Statcast rankings among Astros’ hitters are noteworthy:
- Smith’s quality of contact has been good. He is 2d among Astros (behind Christian Walker) in EV 50 at 102.4 mph. That is the exit velocity for his 50% hardest hit balls. He is also 2d among Astros (again behind Walker) in hard hit rate.
- Smith also has the highest bat speed among all Astros hitters. He also has the highest rate of fast swings (above 76 mph) among Astros hitters (54%). He is also 2d on the Astros (behind only Jeremy Pena) in Blasts per contact. This is promising, and hopefully, in combination with the exit velocity indicators, will lead to future home runs.
- Smth’s high groundball rate probably is the most significant obstacle to a break out in home runs. As noted previously, Smith has the highest GB/Fly rate on the team, and Statcast indicates his average launch angle (6.9) is the lowest on the team.
Smith is the 7th ranked rookie in WAR, according to Fangraphs. But his SLG (.363) is only 15th ranked. Limited to American League rookies, those rankings are 5th and 8th, respectively. If he is to have a shot at a high ranking for the AL Rookie of the Year award, he probably needs to improve the slugging percentage.
3. Call Up for Brice Matthews?
Brice Matthews, the Astros’ top middle infield prospect, is enjoying a good statistical run in AAA recently. He has posted a .307/.408/.604 slash line across his past 120 PA in Sugar Land. Chandler Rome writing for the Athletic, discussed the potential of a call up for the rookie. Astros’ GM Dana Brown said that Matthews’ continued improvement could “force our hand,” but the front office views Matthews contact percent as an impediment to promotion.
Matthews has made improvements in his K rate, but his overall contact rate in AAA has not changed much. According to Rome, his contact rate in AAA would be among the three lowest rates in the major leagues.
The more interesting point made by Rome pertains to the difficulty in evaluating Pacific Coast League batting results. He points out:
Matthews entered Sunday’s game at Reno slugging .672 with a 1.117 OPS in 146 road plate appearances. In 93 plate appearances at Constellation Field — a ballpark that isn’t nearly as hitter-friendly as others in its league — Matthews is slashing .171/.323/.197.
I don’t think this necessarily shows that Matthews would hit as poorly as his home splits indicate—splits of this severity may just reflect the small sample sizes when splitting home / road plate appearances. But this reflects the care which should be used in accepting the PCL batting stats at face value.
But fans should probably keep an eye on Matthews’ stats in the future.