Looking at playoff odds, RE24, and contemplating LHB trades.
Some brief discussion points as the Astros head into a tough part of the schedule.
- Astros Playoff Odds
The Astros’ playoff odds eclipsed the 90% mark (FG WAR method). A could of months ago did you imagine we would see the Astros with that probability at this point in the season? It’s a testament to the Astros’ ability to deal with quite a bit of adversity. The rotation is ravaged by injuries and the Astros’ best hitter is still on the injury list But the Astros are an odds on favorite to be a playoff team
Here are the odds broken down for the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers.
Division Odds
Astros (76%) Mariners (19%),, Rangers (5%.
Clinch Bye
Astros (45%) Mariners (8%), Rangers (2%).
Playoff Odds
Astros (92%) Mariners (57%) Rangers (21%).
Astros appear to be on a pretty good track to win the division at nearly 80% probability. Clinching a bye is very important if the team wants to advance in the playoffs, and it would be better if the odds exceeded 50%. But 45% means the Astros have a reasonable chance of clinching a Bye.
The probability distribution of the Astros’ odds in the FG WAR model also enhances our insight.
Fangraphs Model
As I interpret the chart:
- In the lowest 25% of simulations, the Astros average a win total of 87 wins.
- (In 75% of simulations, the Astros average win total is 93.
- At the 50 percentile mark, the Astros average 90 wins.
2. RE24 and Win Probability Leaders
I like the win probability family of statistics. RE24 is the most interesting metric to me, because it reflects players’ ability to improve run probability on a situational basis. As a reminder, the metric reflects run expectancy above or below league average for each base/out situation.
The best Astros at improving run expectancy above league average: Pena (21 runs), Paredes (14 runs), and Cam Smith (7 runs). The worst Astros at decreasing run expectancy below average: Altuve (-7 runs) and Diaz (-10 runs). These two long time Astros have been the worst at changing the run expectancy in various base/out situations. Yordan Alvarez hasn’t played in awhile, but he remains the only other Astros’ hitter with a positive RE24. The remainder of hitters join Altuve and Diaz in the negative column
The Clutch stat is based on the player’s high leverage performance compared to his normal performance. The four Astros’ leaders in clutch hitting, at least according to the win probability clutch stat, are: (1) Jake Meyers (2) Cam Smith (3) Yordan Alvarez and (4) Mauricio Dubon.
Finally, the WPA leaders for the Astros: (1) Pena, (2) Meyers, (3) Smith and (4) Paredes. The WPA metric tells you which players had the biggest / worst moments in games this year. It is a very good descriptive statistic, but it isn’t a statistic for predicting what happens in the future, because it isn’t necessarily repeatable. It reflects some good and bad luck in appearing in the highest leverage situations of a game.
3. LHB at the trade deadline
We generally assume that the Astros will target starting pitchers and/or a Lefthand bat at the trade deadline. I have already written a preview piece on starting pitcher candidates at the deadline. So,, I will now toss out a few names for potential LHB trades. This is not a comprehensive review, but rather some interesting names from the Fangraphs leaderboard of lefthanded hitters. I’m not looking at the top end of the market, but rather some intriguing but lesser names who should be considered. I tried to identify LHBs whom might fall into the Astros’ price range and might be available for the right trade return. This is a “take it for what it’s worth” suggestion.
I have my doubts that the Astros will acquire a LHB at the trade deadline for a number of reasons which are complicated. I expect the Astros to try out all of the available LHB options available in their system (including Trammel and Singleton) before turning to the trade market. However, the injury to Jacob Melton is important. I’m not aware of any updates on when Melton will return, and if he is out for a lengthy period, that likely will increase the search for a LHB.
Here are three interesting possibilities:
Kody Clemens: He brings the Clemens name which is oh so familiar to Astros fans. He currently is a bench LHB for the Twins Since the Twins are a potential playoff team, I’m not sure how available he might be. But, given that he is a bench player and was purchased by the Twins for cash considerations, he probably would be available for the right return—and reportedly the Twins need RHBs. Clemens has performed well in the bench role for the Twins so far 117 wRC+ with 7 HR in 120 PA. He could play a bench role similar to Singleton, but he has more positional versatility, with the ability to play 1b, 2b, 3b, and LF. i am intrigued by his small sample size stats over his career in the Houston ballpark: 1.073 OPS with 2 HRs in 11 PA. One could hope that playing in his hometown might improve his results.
Kyle Stowers. The 27 year old Miami Marlins OF was acquired from Baltimore. He has a 122 wRC+ and 11 HRs in 375 at bats. He would add some LH power to the lineup, but given his prospect background and many years of team control, he may come at a higher cost. This probably only works if the Astros and Marlins could agree on a Astros prospect for young outfielder deal. Stowers’ x-SLG is .517 and his xwOBA is .371.
Micky Moniak. The one time first pick in the draft is now a 27 year old outfielder who has migrated from Philly to LAA and now to the Rockies. He is still arb eligible for next year and is signed to a $1 M contract this year. Two things jump out: he has a 102 wRC+ and 11 HRs in 207 PA. His Coors Field home park also jumps out—-who know how much of the power we should believe. The Rockies should be interested in trading anybody on their roster who isn’t a future core player, but Colorado’s front office seldom makes those rational moves.
Again, I’m just throwing out a few ideas. As you might notice, I targeted lesser names who could play a part time role with the Astros and who have the potential to add some power to the lineup.