Updates on the playoff odds, defense, and rookie of the year
Some quick Astros bites (or is it bytes?).
- For now the Astros’ playoff odds look really good.
After winning 19 of their last 24 games, the Astros are sitting pretty in the standings. I know momentum can shift on a dime, but currently the Astros playoff odds are looking very good. Let’s update the latest odds from the Fangraphs model. (I am using the FG WAR version of the model below.)
In my previous article, the comparison was between the Astros and Mariners/Rangers. Now the comparison is with the Detroit Tigers, since that team is the only AL contender with higher playoff odds.
Astros’ Odds
Fangraphs
Tigers Odds
Fangraphs
Some observations: (1) The Tigers hold an extremely thin margin over the Astros. (2) The Astros have the highest World Series odds in the AL and the WS odds are lower than only the Dodgers. (3) The Blue Jays are on track to win the AL East, and the Yankees are on track to make the playoffs as a non-bye Wildcard. (4) The Mariners are on track to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
2. Defensive Efficiency Rating
Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) is a statistic that informs analysts about overall team defense. DER is based on the percentage of balls in play which are converted into outs. DER was utlized more often in the past prior to the widespread acceptance of advanced play by play metrics like DRS (defensive runs saved) and OAA (outs above average). The advanced metrics are intended to evaluate players a individual positions on the field, but can also be summed at the team level.
But DER can still serve as a check on team level defensive stats computed by the advanced metrics. Currently the Astros are tied with the Tigers for 10th best DER, according to Baseball-Reference. A simplistic way to calculate DER is 1 – BABIP. B-Ref reflects some adjustments to estimate the number of plays, but B-Ref’s computed DER produces similar results. Based on BABIP, the Tigers and Astros are ranked 10th with a DER of .721 and B-Ref computes a 10th ranking at .708.
The advantage of DER is that it is a straightforward estimate of making fielding plays. The downside is that the results can be influenced by the pitcher (i.e., ground balls vs. fly balls and the quality of contact).
In this case, the advanced metrics produce different outcomes for the Astros’ fielding, depending on whether you utilize the Fielding Bible (DRS) or Statcast (OAA). The Astros are ranked the 3d best defensive team based on OAA (+19). The Astros are ranked 20th based on DRS (-1).
So maybe DER has some value in evaluating the contrasting advanced fielding results. In this case, DER falls between the OAA and DRS outcomes, but somewhat in the direction of OAA. The Astros defense is clearly above average, according to DER.
Cam Smith and Rookie of the Year
Astros’ rookie outfielder Cam Smith has enjoyed a terrific month of games heading into today. Over the previous 28 days, Cam is hitting .394 with a 158 OPS+.
One of the interesting story lines to follow is whether Smith can move closer to winning the Rookie of the Year in the AL. Earlier in the year, we assumed that the A’s All Star shortstop Justin Wilson would cruise to the ROY title. And he still might do so, but Cam is coming on strong.
Based on fWAR, Cam is the No. 3 rookie in the AL with 1.8 WAR, compared to the Red Sox Narvaez and the A’s Wilson at 2.7 and 2.9 respectively. However, Smith inches closer if you utilize bWAR instead of fWAR. The rankings based on bWAR: (1) Carlos Narvaez 2.7 WAR; (2) Cam Smith 2.3 WAR (3) Wilson 2.2 WAR.
Wilson, Smith, and Nick Kurtz are 1-2-3 based on wRC+ [136, 124, and 121 respectively].
Kurtz, Wilson, and Smith are 1-2-3 based on SLG [.506, .468, and .435 respectively].
Kurtz is far ahead among rookies in HR with 13. Wilson is 2d with 9 and Smith is 7th with 7.
All in all, it looks like a tight race heading into the 2d half. Smith is battling not only Wilson, but also Wilson’s teammate, Kurtz, and Red Sox catcher Narvaez. The Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez is also close to the lead.
At this point, I’m making no assumptions as to who will win AL ROY. But we hope that Smith keeps on surging.