Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, and Neyens
Let’s look at three quick topics related to the Astros.
- Hunter Brown Regression
Hunter Brown’s final two starts before All Star break were disappointing, at least based on the brilliant pitching line before those dates. His start against the Rangers was only the second time this season that he pitched on 4 days rest. He threw 93 pitches in five inning, giving up 4 hits, 2 BB, and 5 runs.
Maybe 4 days rest wasn’t a good idea—who knows? But rather than worrying that “something is wrong with Hunter Brown,” perhaps the first thing to ask is whether the regression was predictable. And the answer is “yes.” My July 4 article on ‘x’ and ‘z’ stats provides a basis for that conclusion.
Based on Brown’s z-stat as of June 29, I wrote: “Hunter Brown is on the top 20 list for FIP over performers. Brown’s z-FIP is 3.44 vs. an actual FIP of 2.69. This would seem indicate some regression toward higher run scoring performance. The [FG] article notes that the z-stats still view Brown as an excellent contributor, but not at the same extent as his actual numbers. The z-stats indicate that Brown’s walk rate is likely to increase in the second half.”
Brown’s current FIP is 3.02, which indicates significant regression has already occurred. Since June 29, Brown has produced a high 4.96 FIP. The projected regressed FIP is 3.45 for the second half. That implies that the current 3.02 FIP might continue to regress upward, but probably to a lesser extent than last week.
The z-stats also indicated that Brown had the league’s second highest over-performance of his expected BBs at mid-season. Basically this means that his first strike percent and chase percent as of June 29 did not support the actual walk rate. Brown produced a 2.66 BB/9 on June 29. He has experienced a higher 3.18 BB/9 subsequent to that date. (If Brown can improve his first pitch strike percent in the second half, than the expected increase in walk rate may diminish.)
I realize that fans may not like to hear about probable regression, but in some respects, it’s a more reassuring explanation than saying “Hunter Brown is broken” or “he can’t pitch that many games without fatigue. “ Regression means that Brown may not repeat his first half run suppression, But he still should be a very productive and above average starting pitcher.
2. Josh Hader Regression
Like Hunter Brown, closer Josh Hader ended the first half with a couple of sub-par results. Against the Rangers, he gave up a Crawford Box special which was his first blown save of the season. He also gave up a HR in extra innings against the Rays. This probably isn’t surprising. It is unrealistic to expect Hader to go through a season with zero blown saves. To do so would require a great deal of luck. Among closers with at least 30 saves, the average number of blown saves was 5.5 in 2024 and 5.4 in 2023. Similarly, among closers with at least 20 saves at mid-season, the average number of first half blown saves was 3.5 in 2024 and 3.0 in 2023. Prior to this season, Josh Hader averaged 3.6 blown saves per season.
What we saw last week exemplifies the typical volatility of home run rates. Predicting home runs over a a half season or even multiple seasons is difficult because of this volatility. Hader’s career HR/Fly rate is somewhat above average (13.6 vs. 10 or 11 for the league average). Hader suppresses runs by avoiding contact and striking out batters, which also mitigates his HR/Fly rate.
But Hader is still very good, despite those recent home runs. Since June 29, Hader’s ERA as predicted by the quality of his pitches is still the lowest on the team (PitchBot ERA 1.90).
3. Xavier Neyens
Just a couple of thoughts on Xavier Neyens, the Astros’ first pick in the draft. I’m not going to evaluate Neyens—you can read some of the draft-related content on TCB. I would also point you to Chandler Rome’s article for the Athletic.
Neyens is the first high school shortstop picked by the Astros in the first round since 2012, when they picked Carlos Correa. Rome writes:
Comparing any amateur player to Correa is silly, but based on size alone, the similarities between him and Neyens are difficult to ignore. Correa stands 6-foot-3, weighs 220 pounds and patrols the left side of the infield. Neyens is listed at 6-4, 210 pounds and will begin his professional career at shortstop.
“We’ll give him every opportunity to play shortstop, we see it as a strong potential there, but if not, third base would be an obvious fallback,” Pendino said. “We think he would be a really, really good third baseman because of the actions and the arm. We’re going to give him every chance to stick at shortstop until he proves us wrong because we think he is a shortstop and we’re excited about that potential.”
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow made a bold pick with Correa. At the time, many scouts around the league insisted that Correa would not stay at shortstop—mostly because of his size and mediocre speed. Reportedly the Astros’ scouts and scouting director at the time voted to pick Byron Buxton over Carlos Correa. But Mike Elias, who was at the time Luhnow’s “personal” scout, loved Correa. And Luhnow had the over-riding vote. Elias touted Correa’s strong arm, but he also pointed to Correa’s competitive character. Carlos’ intelligence and drive to succeed undoubtedly played a major role in Luhnow’s decision.
Neyens also has an exceptionally good arm. But reading between the lines of Rome’s article, subjective evaluations of baseball intelligence and drive entered into the Astros’ selection of Neyens. That’s why draft pick decisions are so hard for fans to evaluate. The subjective elements are hard to know.
“I’m a dirtbag. I’m a baseball player,” Neyens said. “I’m going to do whatever it takes to win all the time.”
Rome quotes Astros scouting director Pendino: “His feel for the (strike) zone and his ability to spit on bad pitches and have an understanding of what he’s trying to do at the plate and what he’s trying to hunt, that’s really stood out over the past year,”
Neyens, the Mariner fan who has watched many Astros-Mariners match ups, understands the organization which selected him: “I know they whip the Mariners every year in the AL West…I know they always run the West.”