Interrupting the deadline series with a minor suggestion
The Houston Astros are in a predicament. To put it more bluntly, they have a number of predicaments at the same time. First, they lead the big leagues with 17 players on the injured list. I had been running through a series of possible trade targets and even have one in the hopper for relief pitchers. I am scratching that. The recent update on Isaac Paredes injury has changed the calculus some.
The second problem is the tax threshold. That same piece has estimated that the Astros are about 5.5 million below the threshold. Of course, those are estimates and no one can know for sure what the exact amount is outside the organization. However, considering that we are about 60 percent into the season, we can estimate that they could reasonably add 12 million in salary or less. So, that limits the options off the bat.
Granted, Jim Crane could choose to exceed the tax threshold, but that seems like a move you would only make for a difference maker. That of course brings us to the third problem. The Astros farm system is thin, so other teams might be reluctant to trade their prime assets for what we have and even the prime ones we have like Brice Matthews would be painful to deal right now.
I mention these caveats because the suggestion I have is not one that is going to blow anyone’s skirt up including mine. Necessity is the mother of invention and beggars can’t be choosers. So, what we are looking for is someone to help stem the tide. It would need to be someone that won’t alter the long-term plans of the organization in terms of where they would play, what it would cost in player capital, or exceed the tax threshold. So, before you toss the tomatoes, stale donuts, and half eaten boxes of vegetable fried rice, keep in mind that expectations are low.
Trade for Isiah Kiner-Fela
In order to be completely honest and transparent, I should mention the upsides and the downsides of such of move. In terms of the positives, IKF has a ton of positional flexibility. He has played 442 games at short, 203 games at third, and 77 games at second. He has even played some in left and center field. Given the injury toll on the team, having another player that can play a number of positions.
Even though he came up as a catcher, he was a negative impact fielder there. However, according to defensive runs saved, he is a positive impact fielder at second, short, and third. Essentially, it would be like having a second Maurico Dubon on the team. In many ways, that would be appetizing given our current situation.
The major advantage is that it would be relatively affordable. The Pirates are going nowhere and IKF will be a free agent following the season. His salary is 6.5 million, so he would fit under the tax threshold. He shouldn’t cost a ton of prospect capital because he is more or less a glorifield utility guy for the Pirates. He has been the Pirates primary shortstop this season (+3 DRS), but has spent much of his career as the first utlity guy off the bench.
That brings us to the negatives. As a hitter, he is probably most similar to Dubon. If we compare their career hitting profiles they look pretty similar. While Dubon has been hot for the past several weeks, that is not necessarily a high compliment. Plus, Dubon traditionally had more power. Let’s take a look at some career rates.
Dubon: 14.6% K, 4.8% BB, .261/.297/.382, .121 ISO, .294 wOBA, 87 wRC+
IKF: 15.6% K, 5.5% BB, .263/.313/.350, .087 ISO, .292 wOBA, 83 wRC+
So, they essentially very similar. Dubon has a little more power. IKF has slightly more patience. I have never made any bones about the fact that I have never been in love with Dubon’s hitting profile, so I can’t in good conscience say I love the idea of adding another hitter like Dubon.
Bottom Line
When you are considering trades the first question is whether any particular player makes you better than what you are right now. So, the question is whether IKF is better than Zack Short. In terms of career numbers it is not contest. Short has a 59 wRC+ for his career. Yet, he has a 92 wRC+ so far this year. The question is whether he can continue to produce at that rate.
Short has also played multiple positions, so it comes down to who will be better. IKF is a better fielder and historically a better hitter than short. The difference might be a game. Again, it’s not an earth shattering suggestion. At this point, there will be few deals any of us will feel great about. The question is whether it makes sense to try. Considering the injuries that keep happening, having someone that can play multiple positions well.