Entering this season, I predicted the Astros would finish 95-67 and win the AL West for the fourth consecutive year. I mean, with this organization’s run of success since 2017, it felt like a reasonable projection. In 2023, Houston finished with a 90-72 record even with some regression in the mix. Accounting for potential bounceback from certain players, an extra five wins didn’t seem like a stretch, at least at the time.
But instead of a bounceback, the Astros have sunk lower than anticipated. Are they better than their 27-34 record? It depends. On the one hand, the record is what it is. The results matter. But with only a -4 run differential, their record ought to be better. There are reasons it isn’t better, at least on a macro level. For example, the bullpen has blown ten saves thus far. The lineup has increasingly faltered in key situations, with struggles from Alex Bregman, Yainer Díaz, Chas McCormick, and José Abreu looming large. While the starting rotation has seen its depth partially restored, there is no margin for error at the moment. But their Pythag record is 30-31, which is hardly great. A game below .500 in June for a club with lofty aspirations is a disappointment. With that said, that record would at least make the season look a little better, even if only for the vibes.
There are usually multiple reasons that cause a team to underperform. There is rarely a single point of failure. But those issues tend to manifest in certain situations. Only last season we saw the Padres stumble to an 82-80 record, but their Pythag was 92-70, good for a ten-game difference. Why? The main reason was due to a dismal 9-23 record in one-run games. Not exactly an apple-to-apple comparison, but close enough for our purposes. While their record in one-run games this season hasn’t quite reached that depth, the Astros’ poor record (5-13) in those situations isn’t helping matters. Apply last season’s .488 winning percentage in one-run games to this season and that record improves to 9-9, rounding up a little bit. That adjustment would come mightily close to the 30-31 Pythag record.
There’s also the issue of performance against teams above .500. The Astros are currently 10-22 against teams with a better than .500 record. For reference, the 2023 team finished 42-43 against winning clubs. In 2022, it was 42-27. It is arguably an even more damning indictment against this year’s club than their record in one-run games. Simply put, the Astros are playing worse against better competition. This season, the Astros are 3-17 against the Braves, Mariners, Royals, and Yankees. All four are either in possession of first place in their respective division or competing for a Wild Card. The Cubs were above .500 when they swept those three games against Houston back in late April.
Ultimately, the Astros have dug such a deep hole that it remains improbable that they reach the postseason for an eighth consecutive season. FanGraphs only gives them about 36.4% to clinch a playoff berth. To even reach 90 wins on the season, they will have to win 63 of their next 101 games. A .624 winning percentage. Certainly not impossible, but, again, improbable. However, I’d be rather shocked if that came to pass. In any case, the poor start to the season now begs a couple of questions: Are these who the Astros are now? Or is there a possible rebound in store, especially if certain players start to produce in June? A good place to start is by winning a higher rate of close games and playing better against winning teams.