The sinker has movement again.
Earlier this week, I wrote about Framber Valdez’s sinker and the changes to its movement profile in the last couple of seasons. In short, we saw less vertical movement as his velocity increased. His sinker became more two-seam-like with its horizontal movement profile instead of the sinker that helped make the left-hander one of the better starters in baseball. This change to this movement profile was crucial to some of Valdez’s struggles in 2023, especially as his groundball rate suffered.
Entering Opening Day, I was curious about how Valdez’s sinker would move. Last season, his sinker averaged around 20.5 inches of downward movement, a stark decline from 27.1 inches in 2021 and even 24.2 inches in 2022. It wasn’t a coincidence that Valdez’s average velocity also climbed during those seasons, topping out with a 95.3 MPH average on his sinker. For comparison’s sake, it was 92.5 MPH in 2021. Naturally, with the pitch velocity increasing, the ball has less time to break. Those changes made Valdez increasingly susceptible to leaving his sinker higher in the zone and opposing hitters responded by slugging .455 against it.
Against the Yankees on Thursday, however, we saw a sinker that offers hope for Valdez’s 2024 prospects. Well, as much as a lone start can provide hope, especially the season’s opener. But anytime the average drop in a pitch used nearly 48% of the time in a start increases up to 26.3 inches, it’ll catch your attention, whether checking Statcast or watching the game live.
So, what changes did Valdez possibly make? For one, while still elevated compared to 2021, the average velocity on his sinker — 94 MPH — was more closely aligned with his 2022 average. But, as Lance Brozdowski of Marquee Sports Network noted, the lefty also adjusted his extension and the height of his release. Not only did this affect the movement profile on his sinker, but also other pitches, like the changeup. In turn, Valdez’s Stuff+ numbers experienced a noticeable bump, according to Driveline.
Missed this one in my notes, but interesting stuff from Framber Valdez. #Astros
Small release height drop, driven by greater extension.
Cut 5″ of vertical break (more drop) on both his sinker and changeup. That’s substantial.
Driveline Stuff+
CH 85 ➡️ 152
SK 93 ➡️ 123— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) March 29, 2024
Ultimately, the final result against the Yankees wasn’t ideal. The strike zone calls left some to be desired, yes, but Valdez’s command wasn’t great. As noted by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston here, the southpaw pointed to the sinker’s increased movement as a reason for his command being an issue. It is clear that Valdez still has adjustments to make. But for the Astros to have any meaningful success in 2024, they’ll need him to return to a form resembling his 2021-22 self. It is far too early to speculate whether that will happen, but based on what we saw on Opening Day, I feel a bit more optimistic about this possibility.