In the final year of a five-year extension, how much will Astros third baseman and free agent-to-be Alex Bregman be worth in free agency? The first major deal of the offseason was struck on Wednesday with the San Francisco Giants locking down third baseman Matt Chapman for the next six years. Chapman was expected to decline his $17 million player option and re-enter free agency this winter. Instead, he has a long-term deal in place. Chapman’s extension could be good news for Astros fans hoping to keep Bregman in Houston long-term.
Predicting The Value Of Astros Star Third Baseman
Like Chapman, Bregman is a Scott Boras client. Bregman told The Athletic in March that Boras has his blessing to negotiate with the Astros during the season. Throughout the winter and into spring, Astros general manager Dana Brown maintained the team would make Bregman an offer. Houston does have exclusive negotiating rights with Bregman during the first five days of the offseason, but there’s been no movement, at least not yet.
The Impact Of Matt Chapman’s Extension
The six-year, $151 million extension Chapman signed — a deal negotiated by Boras — should serve as a starting point for Bregman. Houston’s All-Star third baseman is a year younger than Chapman, and has been worth 1.3 more wins above replacement over his career. Bregman’s performance in the three years leading up to free agency is better than Chapman’s during the same period of his career. Bregman will be the best free agent third baseman available this winter and will seek a contract reflecting that.
How teams value the 30-year-old free agent-to-be will be interesting. Bregman’s best slugging years are behind him, but he’s still a skilled contact hitter capable of hitting 20 home runs. Known for his clutch plays, the two-time All-Star ranks among the top defensive third basemen in the majors. But Bregman is having an odd contract year. Despite a slow start, Bregman is hitting the ball harder now than at any point in the past five years. His walk rate, however, is not only uncharacteristically low, at 6.7% it is the lowest of his career.
With two World Series rings and 97 postseason appearances, Bregman will draw interest from any contender needing a third baseman. Like everything else, supply and demand drives free agency. Now the only high-end third baseman entering free agency this offseason, Bregman is expected to be in high demand. Setting himself and Boras up for a bidding war, something the Astros rarely win under owner Jim Crane.
How Much Is Alex Bregman Worth In Free Agency?
Unlike Chapman, a member of the “Boras Four” last offseason, Boras said Bregman will have “more of a normal free-agency.” Bregman already signed one $100 million extension in 2019 that bought out his three arbitration years plus two free-agent years. He hired Boras, known for encouraging clients to avoid contract extensions to maximize their value in free agency, in 2020.
Even though there is no timeline for an extension, Brown knows “how good [Alex] is and how good he’s been for the [Astros].” Bregman opened the season as a legitimate candidate for a $200 million deal which seems unrealistic now. Houston should make Bregman a qualifying offer, valued at $20.325 million last offseason, which he is expected to reject.
Given his $28.5 million salary this year, anything below Chapman’s $25.17 million annual value Bregman will likely decline. Assuming his elbow is not seriously injured, the two-time All-Star should receive offers with an annual value near $30 million. The largest contract Houston has given a player is the five-year, $151 million extension that José Altuve signed in 2018. Keep in mind should Bregman reach free agency, Josh Hader signed a five-year, $95 million pact, the Astros largest free agent contract under Crane’s ownership.
Should Bregman stay with the Astros, his extension would likely be at least five years with a minimum annual value of $28 million. Though, he could probably fetch a seven-year, $210 million deal from any contending or big-market team on the open market.
Brown has said repeatedly he wants to sign and retain Houston’s core players. So far, he’s been able to, locking down both Altuve and Cristian Javier, but the contract Bregman is seeking, is one the Astros typically avoid. But without an adequate replacement for him at third base, Houston could have a problem if they lose Alex Bregman to free agency.
Main Photo Credits: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
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