Spencer Arrighetti…and an extra course of appetizer stats
Spencer Arrighetti Baseball-Reference Player Page
Pronunciation: are-ih-GETTY
Nickname: “Spaghetti”
We like to talk about stats here. And today my article will cover some lessor known baseball stats In honor of Spencer Arrighetti’s nickname, we will treat this as a two course meal of stats.
Main Course: Spencer Arrighetti’s Gem
Spencer Arrighetti pitched a gem against a tough Phillies lineup this week. Arrighetti pitched a no hitter for seven innings and the Astros ended up with a shutout win. I think a go-to statistic for this occasion is Game Score. Game score is a statistic that summarizes the quality of a starting pitcher’s individual game. Game score was invented by Bill James in order to replace the more arbitrary “quality start,” and the formula has been updated by Tom Tango (designated GSc, version2 by Fangraphs). Game score involves a plus/minus system to consolidate measures of quantity and quality, which you can review at the Fangraphs link.
Game Score is calibrated to provide 50 as the average pitcher start. 80 and above is considered “excellent.” Arrighetti’s start against the Phillies achieved a game score of 84. The three highest game scores in the majors this year are related to no-hitters: Snell (95), Cease (95), and Blanco (92). For comparison, Hunter Brown’s very good start against the Royals Thursday was a 69 game score.
Blanco has the Astros’ highest game score this year with his no hitter (96 on GSc v.2). Blanco has one other start with a game score close to Arrighetti’s: 83 on June 16 vs. Detroit. Framber Valdez has three starts with game scores above 80: 82 against the White Sox and Angels and 81 against the Oakland A’s. Verlander has 1 start above 80 this year: 81 vs. the Tigers in May.
I find it interesting that Arrighetti has 2 starts with game scores above 80. The other start was 85 against the Colorado Rockies on June 26. Arrighetti has the next two highest game scores on the team (85 and 84) after Blanco’s no-hitter.
It’s relatively unusual for a rookie starting pitcher to have two game scores above 80 this year. Paul Skenes has two such games (91 vs. Brewers and 85 vs. Cubs). Imanaga has two 80+ game scores (81 vs. the Mets and 81 vs. Rockies). For rookie starting pitchers with more than 1.5 WAR, Arrighetti, Skenes, and Imanaga are the only starters with two game scores above 80.
Let’s hope that Spaghetti continues to serve his main courses al dente for the rest of the year.
Appetizer Course—Situational Batting
With the decline in power for the Astros this year, we probably notice situational batting more—for instance, productive outs and advancing runners. Home run and extra base power is the best way to score runs. But, as I’ve written previously, the Astros offense this year has experienced a decline in power compared to previous years. This makes those lessor means of achieving “extra bases” more notable.
Baseball-Reference has team pages with these secondary “situational stats.” Let’s look at how some of the Astros’ hitters perform on these secondary stats. In a sense, these are “teamwork stats” because the player’s batting stats don’t reflect their performance that helps teammates. Sometimes our impressions are not the same as the actual data demonstrates.
Productive Outs
Productive outs are defined as outs which advance the runner with no outs or scoring the runner with less than two outs. These percentages are expressed as productive outs per opportunity. I have limited the team leaders to at least 15 opportunities.
- Singleton 44%
- Caratini 39%
- Dubon 36%
- Meyers 32%
- Alvarez 32%
The Astros average for productive outs per opportunity is 27%. We can compliment Jon Singleton for 12 productive outs in 27 opportunities, which leads the team.
Scoring the Runner at 3d with Less Than 2 Outs
This is about making effective contact when it may score a runner. It’s a subset of productive outs and includes scores with or without a RBI. Again, I limited the team leaders to 15 or more opportunities.
- Pena 61%
- Dubon 59%
- Diaz 58%
- Singleton 53%
- Caratini 50%
- Bregman 48%
The league average in these situations is 51%. The Astros’ average is 52%. Pena is a surprise (to me anyway) as the leader on this list. Dubon and Diaz are less surprising, given their ability to make contact. Laggards on the list (by percentage) include Altuve, Alvarez, and Meyers.
Advancing the Runner From 2d to 3d With No Outs
This becomes extra important in extra innings, right? Like the previous stat, this statistic is a component of Productive Outs. I have limited team leaders to 13 or more opportunities.
- Singleton 79%
- Diaz 59%
- Bregman 56%
- Alvarez 57%
- Pena 53%
The team average is 51%, which is the same as the league average. Again, we can compliment Jon Singleton for leading the team in the percentage for advancing the runner to 3d base. I’m starting to see a pattern which shows that Singleton contributes more than his basic batting stats indicate.
Any surprises here? Thoughts?