An early look at starting pitchers who might be available at the trade deadline
The mid-season trade deadline is about one and one-half months away. At this point, we don’t know exactly what the Astros will be seeking at the deadline. But it’s a good time to take an early preview of the trade market.
I have to agree with Chandler Rome (The Athletic) that the two most obvious possible trade targets are starting pitcher and a LH bat (preferably 2b). Rome notes that the “needs” list is similar to mid-season 2024:
“Parallels between last season’s deadline and this one are difficult to ignore. Both Astros teams had a starting rotation ravaged by injuries and an offense staying afloat despite an extended absence from one of its best hitters — Kyle Tucker last season and Yordan Alvarez this year.”
For this article, I will focus on the starting pitcher pool, since the Astros have lost two pitchers from the rotation to TJ surgery and another pitcher to a broken finger. The holes in the rotation have been replaced by rookie pitchers whom are described by Rome as “at best, unreliable.”
Like last season, GM Dana Brown will be trying to determine whether he can wait on one of the injured pitchers to return to the rotation. On an in-game interview Wednesday night, Brown said he didn’t expect any injured pitchers to return before, at best, late July and more likely, August. Rome is also skeptical of this option, stating, “The Astros’ much-maligned ‘return to play procedure’ adds to the obvious concerns of counting on a cadre of injured pitchers to throw meaningful, effective innings after such a long absence.”
Personally I’m not convinced at this point that the Astros need to trade for a starting pitcher. It’s possible that one or more of the rookie starters will carve out a reliable spot in the rotation. If (and it’s a big if) the rookie starters can provide good production until the end of July, then presumably Spencer Arrighetti will be ready to return to the rotation.
The Astros probably need to monitor the rookie starters’ performances through the end of June to evaluate how reliably effective they can be in stemming the bleeding. Also, if the Astros get any more bad news in the rotation—for example, if Lance McCullers Jr. has an injury setback or cannot return to effectiveness—then the need for a starting pitcher trade becomes more like a necessity.
As the Astros go forward, examining all of the unfolding clues about the rookie starters and injured starters, it makes sense to begin surveying the starting pitcher market.
Also, I haven’t addresses the required trade return from the Astros’ end. Nor have I discussed how the Astros might deal with the luxury tax exposure at the trade deadline. Given the state of the farm system, we would hate to give up too much prospect capital. Rome suggested that the Astros might attempt to trade players on the active roster who are owed money which could be taken off the books (McCormick, Meyer, and Dubon are mentioned in Rome’s article). My discussion will avoid that question for now.
Methodology
Like my trade preview articles last season, I will screen the potential starting pitchers based on two criteria.
First, the pitchers’ E-F (ERA minus FIP) must be a positive number. Or more simply, the FIP must be lower than the ERA. This criterion hopefully screens out pitchers who are likely to regress toward a higher ERA and perhaps increases the odds that the pitcher’s performance will improve after acquisition. Last year, when I applied this criterion, Kikuchi seemed like a top starting pitcher target from the beginning. And that turned out pretty well. E-F is not a bad predictor of regression,whether up or down.
Second, I have limited the trading market to teams which currently have a low playoff probability (according to Fangraphs’ playoff odds). For the time being, I have excluded AL West teams, given the difficulties of trading within the division. This cuts down the trade market considerably. For example, maybe you like Verlander, but the Giants continue to have reasonable playoff odds.
Potential Targets
After applying these criteria, the resulting trade market doesn’t have sexy or overly exciting rotation pieces. But the pitchers highlighted here appear to be reliable and productive. I will discuss the potential trade target by team.
Reds
Brady Singer and Nick Martinez are the potential options on the Reds. Martinez would be a rental and Singer has one more year before free agency. Singer, the former Royals’ first round pick, possibly has more future potential, but I would instead choose Martinez because he clearly has been the most effective pitcher this season. Martinez has a 3.70 ERA and has pitched to a low or mid 3 ERA for three straight years. Singer’s 4.86 x-ERA isn’t a good sign for his future performance.
The Astros are familiar with Martinez because he started his career with the Rangers. He subsequently pitched for the Padres and Reds. Martinez is a RH finesse pitcher who throws with 92/93 mph velocity and thrives on exquisite control (1.91 BB/9) and a low WHIP (1.17). His x-ERA and FIP are both less than his 3.70 ERA, which may indicate some potential improvement going forward. He throws a wide variety of pitches, including a 4 seam FB, a sinker, a change up, and a slider in almost equal proportions. The fact that he can pitch so well in a HR-happy ballpark like Cincy is a good sign.
The downside for this trade option is his salary ($21 M), which, even if the amount owed is only $8 million at the deadline, still probably requires the Reds to eat some salary. Singer’s salary is easier for the Astros to work with, but he probably will cost more in trade return.
Pirates
Mitch Keller recently pitched against the Astros, and he is a potential trade target. He is a 29 year old RH pitcher who is under contract through 2028. His 4.15 ERA is slightly elevated, but his 3.66 x-ERA and 3.82 FIP are substantially less, which may be more indicative of the future performance. Keller has a profile that fits the mid-rotation category. The Pirates signed Keller to a five year, $77 million contract over his arb years, which may mean that the Pirates won’t be inclined to trade him. His $15.4 M annual salary (AAV) could create a luxury tax problem this year, unless the Astros can work around it.
Nationals
Mike Soroka was on my trade market list last year when he was with the White Sox. He signed with the Nats this season, and pretty much fits the criteria again as a trade target. The 27 year old righthander, is a 94 mph ground ball pitcher. His current ERA is elevated at 4.86, but his x-ERA of 2.91 suggests that he has been very unlucky on batted balls. Soroka’s FIP is 4.11, pretty much in line with his projections. According to Stuff+, Soroka has average stuff, bu this Location+ is above average. This pretty much tracks his K-BB rates, which indicate average strike out ability and very good control (1.71 BB/9). Soroka is a rental, whose remaining annual salary should be manageable.
Red Sox
Lucas Giolito is a pitcher who had a reputation for a great slider over his career. But Giolito has not been able to regain his status as a possible ace starter. Giolito’s current 7-ish K/9 falls far short of the 10 – 13 K/9 range at his peak. Giolito’s ERA is not good for the Red Sox: 5.45. But two factors tells us that he may be better than that. His 4.54 FIP and 4.29 x-FIP offer some hope for improvement. In addition, he has an unsustainably high .336 BABIP. At 30 years old, I doubt that he is at the end of his career. His performance this season should decrease the probable trading cost. However, his $19.25 M salary could created luxury tax problems for the Astros this year unless the Red Sox agree to pay part of it. Giolito’s contract provides a $14 M mutual option for next year.
Royals
It’s unclear if the Royals will be sellers at the deadline. The Royals are a .500 team with 17% playoff odds, which is borderline. If they are sellers, Michael Lorenzen is a respectable rotation target. His current ERA is a little ugly at 4.94. But his FIP and x-FIP are lower (4.76 and 4.37). Moreover, his 4.19 x-ERA indicates some bad luck on batted balls. Lorenzen pitched 153 innings in 2023 and 130 innings in 2024, which might put him in the inning-eater category. Lorenzen also provides some flexibility with the ability to work out of the bullpen. This could enable him to back stop starters returning from injury, if necessary.
I hope these pitchers provide some food for thought.