Where does Alex Bregman fall on the current list?
One of the more fascinating things we see throughout baseball history are the ebs and flows at every position. Every period is a great period for at least one position. It also is a down period for other positions. When we have a loaded field, it can be hard to parse who really belongs and who doesn’t. At first blush, it would seem if three or four contemporaries are more accomplished than you then you probably shouldn’t be in.
However, this is an overly simplistic view. If we expand our search outward we will see that players like Matt Chapman and Rafael Devers will join this list pretty soon. That’s a half dozen third basemen that could make some claim on the Hall of Fame. It is a seemingly ridiculous sum, but it isn’t unprecedented. We see the same thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
Yet, we have another issue with currently active players. The natural assumption is that players will have a fairly conventional career arc where we can accurately predict what they will do in their waning years. I can cite a half dozen examples off the top of my head where this does not occur. So, we have to look at players at where they are and not necessarily where we expect them to be.
On the face of these numbers, Machado and Arenado are not Hall of Famers. At least they aren’t Hall of Famers yet. Still, Machado will reach 2000 hits with a healthy season and Arenado will come close. Both will eclipse 1000 runs and both will have north of 1100 RBI as well. So, many naturally assume they will be there regardless of what happens from here on out.
Yet, when we look at the index we find that this is not necessarily the case. I’d argue that both have points in their favor that mitigate those short-comings and we can possibly predict that they won’t be short once they are done playing. Ramirez and Bregman obviously have more work to do in the conventional numbers department, but they also have a little more left in the tank.
Universally, I have to reiterate that these numbers are not nearly as meaningful as we might think. It doesn’t include walks or any context to how these numbers were accrued or what they mean in comparison with the rest of the league. However, two of them are within shouting distance of normal minimum markers we look to for enshrinement.
Index numbers are a snapshot in time and this is particularly true for active players. If I were to place future bets, I would put Ramirez on top of the list long-term. He is much closer to his prime and with one or two more prime seasons he will leap past Arenado at least and could surpass Machado as well.
Bregman is a little harder to consider. He officially has nine seasons under his belt, but he came up towards the end of the 2016 season, and the 2020 season was truncated by the pandemic. So, if we add in three more seasons he would get his tenth season in and likely replace those two seasons in his peak value total. Three four win seasons would ultimately add at least 30 to 32 wins to his index total.
A player sitting on a 190 index score is not Hall of Fame worthy in most cases, but Bregman could have as many as 600 postseason plate appearances. Throw in a spectacular postseason run and you could argue he is the best postseason third baseman in the history of the sport. Naturally, he could flop in those same opportunities and hurt his chances. The future is unwritten.
Obviously, as a Houston fan my attention will be placed on Bregman, but Ramirez deserves some mention here. He is four wins better than the other active players on the basepaths. That has a way of augmenting his offensive resume. The runs created totals show us what needs to happen. Machado and Arenado are two or three more solid seasons away of getting in range.
Ramirez is closer to four seasons. However, the quality has to come into play. These are the push and pull factors we have to consider when looking at Hall of Fame resumes. Ramirez and Bregman are better than the HOF median in most of the percentage numbers. They likely will see those numbers tumble a bit as they continue playing.
Bregman may play another five or six seasons and he may get close to the median in terms of runs created, but what will happen to his overall numbers in the process? It is a lot easier to see a path forward for Ramirez. He is already better than the Hall of Fame median and will get to the durability numbers with four healthy seasons.
I know that it takes some suspension of disbelief to overcome the bias against Rockie hitters. Larry Walker had to wait. Todd Helton had to wait. I’m sure Matt Holiday and Troy Tulowitzki will come up short when all is said and done. Yet, hitting has not been Arenado’s super power. He is the best fielding third basemen of his generation. Matt Chapman may very well give him a run for his money before too long, but when Arenado was at his best, there was no one better.
Machado is pretty damn good too and he also played some shortstop. These numbers should help overcome some of the offensive deficiencies. Bregman and Ramirez are legitimately good defensive third basemen, but they aren’t on that level. They will continue to add some cumulative value, but their bats (and legs in Ramirez’s case) will have to do the bulk of the heavy lifting.
The Astros flirted with Arenado a couple of different times this offseason and I suppose anything is possible from here on out. The trick comes in acquiring the player he currently is and not the player he was in the past. Arenado is good defensively as opposed to being great. He is average to solid with the bat as opposed to being good. Those players have value, but any acquiring team has to be careful to consider his present value and not the player he used to be.
I like the MVP test because it tells us two very important things. It is difficult to find a numerical measure for fame, but this metric comes closest. In particular, we see that the top three guys are already there in terms of both MVP votes and their actual statistical value in those individual seasons. So, they really don’t have to be great from here on out.
Bregman still has some work to do. If he finishes in the top five two more times, he will be at the Hall of Fame median. He will be there with three top ten finishes. As we well know, those actual counting numbers (index and standard) would be a boost for him as well. The MVP points are simple to understand and provide a quick reference that those other numbers don’t necessarily provide.
The second consideration is the difference between the MVP voting and the BWAR points. Sometimes, the voters miss a guy’s value either high or low. That is usually tied to defense as voters don’t look as carefully at defense as they do at the hitting numbers. It shouldn’t be any surprise that Arenado was the most unappreciated player in this group.
Playoff performance is not officially part of the index. It is an extra. To put this in perspective, 35 plate appearances usually take place over eight games. So, are we really going to trash Arenado over eight baseball games? I suppose you could and I suppose any team looking at acquiring him may think twice based on this track record.
Small sample sizes don’t impress me that much. Bregman has the most plate appearances of any third basemen in the postseason and his totals account for maybe four full months of a baseball season. Maybe you have 17 weeks of action when seasons usually have 24 weeks.
Let’s say he closes the gap and gets in the equivalent of a 162 game schedule. Maybe he gets to an .800 OPS with 25 dingers, 80 runs, and 80 RBI. That is pretty damn close to an average season for him. Those are good numbers don’t get me wrong, but how much weight are we really supposed to give it? Is it worth two full seasons? Three? Obviously, the leverage is higher and the fame is also considerable, but how close does he have to get for that to push him over the top?
My gut tells me the top three guys will be worthy of the Hall of Fame before all is said and done. Bregman still has some work to do. If he can produce another 2018 or 2019 then anything is possible. Add in some postseason heroics and who knows. My guess is we will see more of what we have seen the last few seasons. That’s a good player, but not one that blows anyone’s skirt up.