A natural follow up to the dynasty piece
It had occurred to me that I left a lot unsaid in my last piece. The most important of these is the next obvious question. It would be fair to ask what should be done after offering as much criticism as I did last time. I could see the responses now, “okay genius, what would you do then?” That’s perfectly fair.
Let’s start by looking at the view from 10,000 feet. The Astros are on a hamster wheel. They have already passed the first tax threshold. Based on the Blake Snell negotiations we can guess that Jim Crane is not willing to surpass the second tax threshold. I’m not here to question his willingness to spend money. It’s not my money. As it stands, you have three choices. You can damn the torpedoes like the New York Mets and spend upwards of 300 million annually to buy your way out of your problems. We see how well that has worked out for them.
Crane is a billionaire, but he isn’t a billionaire like Cohen is a billionaire. Cohen can shake out a billion dollars out of his seat cushions. Crane is barely a billionaire. Sure, that might not matter to 99 percent of the general public, but it is a big deal to the one percent. I’m not sure he could even spend at that level if he wanted to. Even still, let’s say he adds the most expensive pitcher and most expensive position player next year. Does that guarantee anything?
The second road is to go the Dodger road. We can call this the Wimpy mode of management. He was the infamous character from the Popeye cartoons that would say, “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” Most of their contracts are deferred into the next decade. The Ohtani contract is just the most notorious of those. However, in a decade’s time they will be paying Ohtani, Will Smith, Mookie Betts, and others for production they won’t get. I don’t think Crane has an appetite for that either.
So, that leaves you on the 220-230 million hamster wheel. It seems crazy to think we are here given then franchise history of pinching pennies and nickels, but we are here. That should be plenty of money to spend, but when you have a number of hefty contracts that money gets swollen up quickly. The team kept kicking the can down the road and replacing would be free agents from within. The cupboard is bare and the balloon payments are due. It is time for some tough decisions.
Let’s start with the easy ones. Ryan Pressly has a two million dollar buyout after the season. You almost certainly won’t pay him beyond this year. If Alex Bregman is still hitting .220 then you likely are letting him walk. Even if he somehow gets up to .250 or .260 then the 30+ million price tag is too rich for what he gives you. Letting those two guys go seems like a lock. That helps the bottom line some, but more needs to be done.
The harder decisions are Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker. I personally don’t find that to be a difficult choice if you are choosing one of those two. What’s hard is it might end being neither. I’m not giving Framber Valdez five or six years even if he suddenly returns to his 2022 form. I just don’t trust any pitcher over that period much less one that is already 30.
I took a look at the Kyle Tucker contract last week. He almost certainly will get that or more in free agency. The question is whether Jim Crane has the appetite to give that to him. Again, it’s not my money. If it were me I’d likely give it to him, but it is time to be honest. If you aren’t going to go there then it is time to look at what you can get. The time for allowing free agents to walk out the door with nothing coming back should be over.
Essentially, it is time to think beyond 2024. In fact, it is time to start thinking beyond 2025. That doesn’t mean completely waiving the white flag either. It means walking a tight rope and simply being up front and honest about your roster. Who is likely to be a part of this club beyond 2025? If they aren’t likely to be here then it is time to get as much capital as you can from those players to help you prevent rock bottom.
In the coming days and weeks, I am going to start looking at each of the key players like I did with Kyle Tucker and look at what a contract could potentially look like. From there we can make decisions on a case by case basis. Would and should we make those signings? We will obviously see but it is time to make some hard decisions and not kick the can down the road. Hamster wheels are hard on hamsters. On baseball teams and fans it is worse.