Has the young catcher done enough to earn a long-term deal?
When we get to these last two guys we start to get into another section of proposing contracts. Yainer Diaz is just in his second full season at the big league level. So any contract is based around who they think he will end up being more so than who he is right now. Of course. we can only base that on what we have seen so far and how that compares with the catcher universe.
Eighteen catchers have played longer than Diaz and his 168 games. Connor Wong has the fewest number of games with 205 games played. Every other catcher has played in 300 or more games. We will use total runs per 162 games, but I am making a minor adjustment based on reader feedback and the way I am reading the tea leaves as far as the future is concerned.
At every other position, I have used defensive runs saved. DRS includes pitch framing runs. I think that’s invaluable for evaluating catchers now for the reasons I described in another piece where I discussed Brian McCann. However, the automatic strike zone is coming. Teams will likely be able to review ball and strike calls as early as next season and could possibly move to the automatic zone as soon as 2026. At that point, pitch framing ceases to be an issue.
So, our new total runs formula will include runs created, Rfield, and Rbaser from baseball-reference.com. From there we can take a look at the tiers of catchers in the sport and see which tier Diaz fits into. Like with the other players, we are looking for similar players and what they are currently being paid. Seeing who is similar might also help us decide if signing him is a good idea at all.
Tier One
Adley Rutschman: 108.8 total runs per 162
Will Smith: 102.4 total runs per 162
The Dodgers just gave Smith a huge ten year contract. The length of the deal is insane, but in terms of value it is in line with what he is currently worth. With 19 total catchers making the cut here, Diaz is actually the median catcher at 75.1 total runs per 162 games. So, Smith is worth about two and a half runs more than the median. Keep in mind this is just among 19 catchers. If we include the other spots he is probably closer to three wins better than the median starting catcher.
Rutschman is not making that money yet, but the Orioles will have a huge decision on their hands. He will likely command 20 or more million per season and they will have to decide if they want to invest that in a catcher. However, there is no doubt that he is an elite catcher and probably the best in the sport right now.
Will Smith: 10 years, 140 million = 14.0 AAV no multiplier
Tier Two
Willson Contreras: 94.5 total runs per 162
J.T. Realmuto: 94.4 total runs per 162
William Contreras: 93.0 total runs per 162
This seems pretty easy to see and we have three similar players here. We should note that the first Contreras could have been an Astro if only for 2022. In terms of his past performance he is about two wins better than Diaz. Of course, that is over a full 162 game rate. For what catchers normally play, it is probably closer to a win and a half. It will be similar for guys like the other Contreras and Realmuto.
Willson Contreras: 5 years, 87.5 million, 17.5 AAV x 1,05 = 18.4 adjusted AAV
J.T. Realmuto: 5 years, 115 million, 23.0 AAV x 1.15 = 26.5 adjusted AAV
Tier Three
Salvador Perez: 86.8 total runs per 162
Keibert Ruiz: 84.3 total runs per 162
Sean Murphy: 82.3 total runs per 162
So, this is getting closer to the neighborhood that Diaz is likely to live in. These three are all slightly better than Diaz now, but if he grows as a hitter he could approach their numbers in the next uear or two, Murphy and Ruiz are currently struggling while Perez is closer to the end than he is the beginning, but their current contract status should probably help us.
Salvador Perez: 4 years, 82.0 million, 20.5 AAV x 1.10 = 22.6 adjusted AAV
Keibert Ruiz: 8 years, 50.0 million, 6.25 AAV x 1.05 = 6,6 adjusted AAV
Sean Murphy: 6 years. 73.0 million, 12.2 AAV x 1.05 = 12.8 adjusted AAV
Tier Four
Danny Jansen: 71.1 total runs per 162
Alejandro Kirk: 71.0 total runs per 162
Cal Raleigh: 70.9 total runs per 162
Ryan Jeffers: 70.7 total runs per 162
Yasmani Grandal: 70.5 total runs per 162
Tyler Stephenson: 69.4 total runs per 162
Grandal is close to the end, so it really doesn’t matter what he’s making. He did earn an average of 7.6 million per season over the course of his whole career. Diaz (75.1) is slightly better than these guys. So, he is either a tier three or four catcher depending on your definition. Let’s take a look at what these guys are making.
Danny Jansen: 1 year. 5.2 million AAV
Alejandro Kirk: 1 year, 2.8 million AAV
Yasmani Grandal: 7.6 average annual contract
Tyler Stephenson: 1 year, 2.5 million AAV
Putting it all together
You get a bit of a discount when you get guys early. So, we see that Diaz is somewhere between tier three and tier four. His agent will want to compare him with the tier three guys while the Astros will want to compare him with the tier four guys. So, let’s see if we can boil down the two to see what the parameters are.
Tier Three Average: 6 years, 84 million in adjusted AAV
Tier Four Average: 1 year, 4.5 million
Keibert Ruiz feels like the closest comp in tier three. That’s an adjusted annual value of 6.6 million over eight seasons. The guys in tier four are all on one year deals where the average is 4.5. So, if we average the two together we would end up getting either a four or five year deal at 5.5 million annually. So, a five year contract would end up being 5 years and 27.5 million. Diaz gets long term financial security and the Astros get a possible third tier catcher at an affordable rate.