We are playing both sides on this one
In a continuing series, I will look at the principal players on the roster and look at what a contract might look like for them. On the Kyle Tucker contract I played agent. If it is possible, the Alex Bregman negotiations will be even more complicated. So, I will be playing the part of Scott Boras and Jim Crane/Dana Brown/Jeff Bagwell.
I’m also introducing a new stat which will hopefully make things more clear. Bill James introduced total runs on his site billjamesonline.com. Unfortunately, he is no longer active, but I will pick up the ball for him. I will throw out the same numbers I did with Tucker which includes OPS+, rOBA, OW%, rbaser, and runs created per 162 games. On defense, we will look at Rfield, DWAR, FG, and defensive runs saved.
Total runs takes runs created and then adds base running runs and defensive runs saved. I will calculate that per 162 games. I will also do something on the Astros end that I will explain later. I am almost certain that will complicate negotiations, but this is a diffcult negotiation. Let me start with the Boras angle. All numbers are up to date through May 30th. The Astros side won’t be but I’ll explain that later.
Offensive numbers
Manny Machado: 124 OPS+, 0 Rbaser, .356 rOBA, .582 OW%, 101.4 RC/162
Austin Riley: 122 OPS+, -3 Rbaser, .360 rOBA, .615 OW%, 104.6 RC/162
Alex Bregman: 132 OPS+, -2 Rbaser, .366 rOBA, .642 OW%, 110.5 RC/162
Matt Chapman: 117 OPS+, 2 Rbaser, .340 rOBA, .559 OW%, 91.0 RC/162
Nolan Arenado: 127 OPS+, 0 Rbaser, .370 rOBA, .626 OW%, 109.1 RC/162
Rafael Devers: 126 OPS+, -8 Rbaser, .365 rOBA, .627 OW%, 111.0 RC/162
Jose Ramirez: 130 OPS+. 32 Rbaser, .369 rOBA, .656 OW%, 111.3 RC/162
As I explained in the Kyle Tucker article, I could go into a long-winded tutorial on what these numbers all mean, but the fact that most of them are so close renders that moot. Offensively, Machado, and Chapman fall out in terms of comps. Obviously, things are never that simple, but for now, we see the other four guys are pretty good offensive comps for Bregman, and as his agent, that is where I would start.
In particular, the runs created per 162 are eerily similar among those five guys (counting Bregman). Since that is going to be part of our total runs formula, that seems like a good place to start. Before we start diving into contracts, we need to look at fielding and total runs.
Fielding Numbers
Manny Machado: 92 Rfield, 100 DRS
Austin Riley: 25 Rfield, 22 DRS
Alex Bregman: 19 Rfield, 18 DRS
Matt Chapman: 99 Rfield, 99 DRS
Nolan Arenado: 151 Rfield, 150 DRS
Rafael Devers: -59 Rfield, -59 DRS
Jose Ramirez: 26 Rfield, 22 DRS
Obviously, Devers falls out on the low end, and Machado, Arenado, and Chapman fall out on the high end. That leaves Austin Riley and Jose Ramirez as the only good fielding comps for Bregman. However, this gets really interesting when we put it all together in total runs. Remember, I’m playing Scott Boras here.
Total Runs
Manny Machado: 101.4 RC/162, 0/1.0 Rbaser/1/62, 9.9 DRS/162 = 111.3 total runs
Austin Riley: 104.6 RC/162, -0.7 Rbaser/162, 5.5 DRS/162, 109.4 total runs
Alex Bregman: 110.5 RC/162, -0.3 Rbaser/162, 2.9 DRS/162, 113.1 total runs
Matt Chapman: 91.0 RC/162, 0.4 Rbaser/162, 17.4 DRS/162, 108.4 total runs
Nolan Arenado: 109.1 RC/162, 0.0 Rbaser/162, 15.4 DRS/162. 124.5 total runs
Rafael Devers: 111.0 RC/162, -1.5 Rbaser/162, -10.8 DRS/162, 98.7 total runs
Jose Ramirez: 111.3 RC/162, 3.8 Rbaser/162, 2.6 DRS/162, 117.4 total runs
Okay, I am suspending disbelief and pretending that Boras will be reputable. I cannot in good conscience call Nolan Arenado a comp because he is over a win better per season than Bregman. Devers is over a win worse, so I will count him out as well. So below are the other four guys with the same inflationary multiplier I used before.
Boras Contract Comps
Manny Machado: 11 years, 350 million, 31.8 AAV = 33.4 2024 dollars
Austin Riley: 10 years, 212 million, 21.2 AAV = 22.3 2024 dollars
Matt Chapman: 3 years, 54 million, 18.0 AAV = 18.0 2024 dollars
Jose Ramirez: 7 years, 141 million, 20.3 AAV = 23.3 2024 dollars
If we take the contracts at face value and look at the aggregate, we get an 8-year contract worth around 190 million dollars. Obviously, Scott Boras is asking for more than that, but I am pretending to be reputable here. Also, considering his age, I am not walking into Jim Crane’s office and asking for eight years. Boras will, but as a reputable agent, I wouldn’t. I would probably go six years and go at the inflationary midpoint, which would end up being a shade over 24 million dollars. I would probably ask for 6/150 and call it a day.
The Astros Side
This is simple. I am not paying for 2018 and 2019. Those are out of context seasons that don’t reflect who Alex Bregman is as a player. So, I am removing those seasons and also removing the 2024 season since I am being magnanimous. So, if you remove 2018, 2019, and 2024 this is what his offensive numbers turn into (I’m not removing the defense since those were at career norms.
New Bregman: 121 OPS+. -2 Rbaser, .350 rOBA, .588 OW%, 90.8 RC/162
Suddenly the offensive comp becomes Matt Chapman. Bregman is still a good baseball player with these numbers, but he isn’t a MVP level player. From here we go back to the contract comps and throw in Rafael Devers because their total runs per 162 are the most similar. We will also include the Matt Chapman contract since they are at least similar offensively. The other guys fall out of the comps.
Rafael Devers: 11 years, 331 million, 30.1 million AAV = 31.6 2024 dollars
Matt Chapman: 3 years, 54 million, 18.0 million AAV = 18.0 2024 dollars
This, unfortunately, doesn’t help the Astros to combine these two. We end up at 7 years and 24.8 million AAV. However, I am heavily leaning into the Chapman numbers as my starting point. I’d pitch two contracts to the Boras team and see if they bite on either one. I would go either 4/80 or 5/90 as my proposal.
The End Result
This is where you hope Scott Boras gets a little gun-shy. His clients took it in the teeth this winter and his client is almost certainly going to be below career norms even if he is picking things up a little in this Seattle series. I don’t think he is getting a long-term deal from anyone, and certainly not anything close to six seasons.
If I am Boras (which I am not) I have to look at the likelihood of my client being more valuable following 2025 or 2026. He will be two years older and further removed from those MVP-type seasons. 2022 and 2023 are legitimately the best hope you can get from Bregman. He is absolutely valuable but not at the top of the scale. I’d be inclined to accept 4/80 or 5/90 because Bregman will likely be more successful in Houston than elsewhere. The question will be whether Jim Crane and company are willing to make those offers.