How does Abreu’s release impact the immediate and not so immediate future?
As everyone already knows, Jose Abreu was released by the Astros on Friday. It seemed like an obvious decision, but when you have 30 million more wrapped into a guy, no decision is that obvious. As I have indicated before, the moniker “HOF Index” is not only an outlook on the Hall of Fame but a way to look at baseball and sports in general. It is about “evidence-based decision-making”.
It may seem like I have used that term a lot, but repetition is the key to solid marketing. If you make a mantra you will hopefully begin to use it and that is hopefully true of the Astros. All of the evidence pointed to this decision being obvious weeks ago. Yet, it is understandable when you consider the human element.
We should take a moment for a kind word on Abreu. He didn’t want to suck. He worked very hard and did his best. His best just wasn’t good enough. No one knows when they will be tapped on the shoulder and told they can no longer play a kid’s game. A few lucky ones figure it out before the league does. Most have to be told. You have to feel for anyone that gets told that message.
Now comes the time when the Astros have to officially consider their three options for filling first base. This is where evidence-based decision-making will lead you out of the hole you are in. The absence of that could bury you deeper into a hole. We can start with the most obvious choice.
Play Jon Singleton almost every day
Jon Singleton is to the 2020s what Chris Carter was to the 2010s. He is a stopgap solution until you can find something better. He is cheap and easily replaceable. The weaknesses have been on full display throughout May when Abreu was on his Florida vacation. He is a big swing-and-miss guy that also struggles to field the position at an average level.
The advantages are on display as well. He can occasionally get into one and hit it a country mile. He also has a good eye at the plate, so his OBP is livable even if his batting average is below average. A 92 wRC+ isn’t going to blow anyone’s skirt up, but compared to what Abreu was doing it is a breath of fresh air.
It is not an appetizing choice, but it is a choice that allows you to pool your resources into other parts of your roster. You can focus on pitching before the deadline. You could even afford to sell if you feel like you won’t get back into the race. Either way, you aren’t sinking more resources into a money pit.
Test out the Young Kid(s)
We have been told that Joey Loperfido can’t play first base. There is absolutely zero proof that he can’t. Trey Cabbage has also played some first base in the minors. We also have seen no proof that he can’t handle the position either. This is what evidence-based decision making is all about.
Playing the young kids might mean punting on the position for a year. It might also provide a glimpse into what the position could look like long term. If I detest anything, I detest a defeatist attitude. Some people have already written off Loperfido as a future utility guy. The same has likely been assumed of Cabbage. I agree that it is likely the eventuality, but nothing is written in stone.
All Loperfido has done while he is here is perform. He hasn’t been given many opportunities for reasons only they know. I can speculate about his lack of playing time and I have to because there is no actual evidence to explain why he is not. Is it above board? Maybe. However, I think at least a part of it was about not showing up Abreu. Well, that excuse is now out the window.
Trade for a Veteran First Baseman
This is the one that gets all the clicks and gets fans somewhat excited. We’ve heard the names before. Peter Alonso? Paul Goldschmidt? Josh Bell? Years ago there was a Simpson’s episode where they had a barber shop quartet called the “B Sharps”. The whole idea was to come up with a name that would initially be appealing, but then lose its appeal over time.
Such a trade feels the same here. Yes, those three are better than Singleton. They are likely better than Loperfido or Cabbage. The trouble is what you have to give up to get them. Would that capital be better spent on a healthy arm or maybe you trade your veterans to add more minor-league depth to those few trade chips.
Alonso is the biggest fish of the three because he is the youngest and he is hitting the best. Yet, he and Goldschmidt will be free agents, so you are essentially renting a guy for three months only to put yourself in the same position in the offseason. Furthermore, by not playing Loperfido or Cabbage you have no idea what you have.
The End Result
I think my preference should be obvious. If there is one thing I hate it is when teams make decisions before they even explore all of their options. Think of hurlers like Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Things looked rough early, but they gave them extended time and they finally seem to be getting results. This is an opportunity to see what will happen.
Sure, Loperfido might prove to be a utility guy. Sure, Cabbage might prove to be a fourth or fifth outfielder type. They also might show you more than that. Look at the evidence. Astros first basemen are hitting a combined .181/.262/.291 and Abreu and Singleton have combined to be the worst fielding combination at the position in the league. What exactly do you have to lose here?