A critical look back at history
I like to be up front and honest as much as I can. Intellectual integrity is important to me. For those that are uninitiated, that means that it is hard to keep a reputation as a reasonable analyst and blatantly omit when I was wrong. I liked the Jose Abreu signing at the time. Three years seemed a bit much for a 36 year old first baseman, but I just thought it seemed like the cost of doing business.
The assumption was that you probably would get two productive years out of him and then he would likely break down in that third year. Yet, another World Series run or two would have been well worth the bargain. All of that obviously hasn’t turned out to be the case. The festering question is not what I would have done. I am a high school special education teacher. The question is what James Click would have done if given the opportunity. He’s a real baseball man and he was run out of town on a rail.
For that not so brief period in between Click and Dana Brown we had Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell kept telling us to trust what was on the back of the baseball card. In fact, he’s still telling us this. Fine. We will have it your way Jeff. I’m going to dispense with my high fangled numbers because I know you don’t trust them anyway. I will use the basic slash numbers (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage) along with home runs, runs scored, and RBI. Let’s take a look at the top five first basemen in the history of the sport (after 1900) and see what they did in their last season.
Lou Gehrig: .143/.273/.143, 0 HR, 2 Runs, 1 RBI
Jimmie Foxx: .261/.336/.420, 7 HR, 30 Runs, 38 RBI
Albert Pujols: .270/.345/.550, 24 HR, 42 Runs, 68 RBI
Jeff Bagwell: .250/.358/.380, 3 HR, 11 Runs, 19 RBI
Frank Thomas: .240/.349/.374, 8 HR, 37 Runs, 30 RBI
Aggregate: .234/.332/.373, 8 HR, 24 Runs, 31 RBI
Obviously some of these guys were better than others. Gehrig obviously was in the throws of ALS while the others ranged between mediocre (Foxx, Bagwell, and Thomas) and good (Pujols). None was as good as they were in their prime. Pujols’ numbers look deceiving because he had that renaissance at the end, but his last several seasons were all subpar. The aggregate isn’t the literal average. That would involve totaling all of the plate appearances to break down the percentages exactly. The aggregate is simply averaging the five together. It’s not quite as accurate but it’s good enough for now.
What’s the point? These numbers are also on the back of the baseball card. They just happen to be the last baseball card. We don’t know if Jose Abreu is in his very last season, but it sure as heck feels like it right now. Everything is clearer in the rearview mirror than the windshield. We never know when the end will come, but we know it will come.
These are the top five first basemen in history according to JAWS and the Hall of Fame Index. Let’s take a look at who might be similar to Jose Abreu historically by finding the five first basemen closest to him in JAWS. What did they do in their last seasons in the big leagues?
Andres Galarraga: .300/.364/.600, 1 HR, 1 Run, 2 RBI
Frank McCormick: .250/.289/.389, 4 HR, 14 Runs, 34 RBI
Earl Torgesen: .091/.311/.091, 0 HR, 4 Runs, 1 RBI
Hal Trosky: .254/.330/.334, 2 HR, 22 Runs, 31 RBI
Rudy York: .157/.259/.157, 0 HR, 4 Runs, 6 RBI
Aggregate: .210/.311/.314. 1 HR, 9 Runs, 15 RBI
I am sure Galarraga is familiar to most of you. The others might not be. Abreu’s career is unique in that he played most of his twenties in Cuba. Had he come up when most players come up he’d likely end up considerably higher on the first base list and would be compared to guys you’ve all heard of.
Even if he comes back and plays a little bit better, the aggregate slash numbers appear to be pretty close to what he would actually produce this season. I’m guessing with the plate appearances he would be somewhere in between McCormick and Trosky in terms of the counting numbers.
Jonathan Singleton isn’t going to make anyone forget about Jeff Bagwell. Hell, he seems more akin to Chris Carter than anyone else that has worn an Astros uniform recently. Chris Carter was a better baseball player than the numbers you see above. Abreu was the AL MVP in 2020. It was a terrific season and he routinely drove in more than 100 runs until 2022. That Abreu isn’t walking back through the door. Whatever form of Abreu we get back from Florida, we can guarantee we aren’t getting THAT Abreu.
We are only getting the man he is right now. I’m not a hitting coach or scout. I don’t know if it is a physical issue, mental issue, or mechanical issue. I just know he isn’t catching up to the fastball. The few hits he did have were almost exclusively to the opposite field and all off of off-speed stuff. He needs to prove he can actually hit a big league fastball before we declare him back. The decline was extreme and seemingly came out of nowhere. It happens that way sometimes. Baseball history is littered with guys that were great until they weren’t. It isn’t always a gradual thing. It feels like he’s done. Hopefully I’m wrong, but all of this will go on the back of the baseball card anyway.