Thought: Want Better Pitching? Try Improving the Fielding
With the news of Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidity heading to surgery, Astros fans are abuzz about ways to improve the pitching staff. But as much as we want more pitching depth that the team didn’t acquire during the off-season, the fact is that’s a tough challenge during the regular season. Everyone needs more pitching because pitchers are at a premium.
Let me throw out a different idea. Suppose the Astros could concentrate on improving their defense. Wouldn’t that allow the Astros to get performances out of their existing pitching staff and whatever depth they call up from the minors?
One way of reviewing this issue is to evaluate the discrepancy between ERA and x-ERA. The statcast x-ERA is an expected ERA developed from the amount of contact the pitcher allows and the quality of contact that results. The pitcher’s control over the results of an at bat pretty much ends at the point of contact and the quality of that contact. The remainder of the results largely are in the hands of his fielders and the vagaries of luck. I developed the table below which compares the Astros pitchers’ x-ERA and actual ERA. A positive difference means the x-ERA is lower than the ERA, and a negative difference means the x-ERA is higher than the ERA. These are simple averages in the summation of the table, but I think it makes the point.
The Astros’ pitchers’ average ERA is almost four-tenths of a run higher than the expected ERA. Hunter Brown (2 run difference), Spencer Arrighetti (1.3 run difference), Shawn Dubin (3.3 run difference), and Ryan Pressly (1.35 run difference) are pitchers who posted particularly unlucky ERAs. Montero, Scott, and Blanco appear to have been somewhat lucky and could face regression in the future. But the point is that the Astros pitching staff, on average, has experienced results worse than expected, according to Statcast.
While some of this could be whimsical luck, I would guess that a substantial part is due to problematic defense. Let’s look at the Astros’ team fielding metrics.
- The Astros currently are ranked 21st in team defensive runs saved at -5 runs saved. Particular fielding deficits arise at 1b (-7 runs), pitcher (-4 runs), catcher (-4 runs), and CF (-4 runs). And the negative numbers in CF do not involve Jake Meyers who is a positive on DRS. The Astros are really good when they shift the infield and outfield (+8 runs) but poor when they don’t shift (-2 runs). The Astros were ranked a lofty No. 4 in DRS as recently as 2022.
- The Astros are ranked 16th in team defense, according to Statcast’s fielding run value. The Astros were ranked 3d on this Statcast metric in 2022. So clearly there is room for improvement on defense.
I liked Espada’s post game comments a couple of weeks ago when he credited fielding as the most important variable they can control.
Now, just suppose the best Astros’ strategy to improve the pitching would be redoubling efforts to improve the team’s fielding. I’m not a coach, but perhaps more fielding practice and pitcher fielding drills would help. Emphasizing to the players that focus and concentration on fielding is as important as individual batting stats. Getting even better at designing the kinds of shifts and positioning that are allowed under the rules. Coaching better framing by the catchers. And how about the lineup decisions? It’s probably time to decide that Jake Meyers is the everyday CF. Maybe defense should play a part in deciding who plays 1b on a day to day basis. Players’ defensive skill should probably be a major part of any decisions to call up position players from AAA.
We like to call baseball a team game. There is no better way to demonstrate teamwork than the relationship between fielding and pitching. And the better the fielders perform, the more confidence that young pitchers will have in throwing strikes. When you notice that Brown and Arrighetti have added multiple runs to their ERA due to BABIP misfortune, that makes you wonder if that experience affects their ability to throw balls in the zone with conviction.
So that’s a strategy for dealing with the loss of high level pitching due to injury. It might be quite a bit cheaper than trying to acquire pitchers at the trade deadline.