How will the Astros limit starter work loads with so little rotation depth?
General Manager Dana Brown may feel like he is playing with a Rubik’s Cube when he tries to set up the starting rotation over the next few months. With the recent loss of Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy to TJ surgery, the starting pitcher depth teeters on near-disaster. On top of the lack of depth, the Astros may face compelling reasons to limit the work load of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco in the second half of the season.
Teams like the Astros will frequently limit the seasonal work load of young starting pitchers and starters who have little experience with a starting pitcher work load. The idea is to balance the team’s current pitching needs with the future need to protect the pitchers’ arm and shoulder. It’s not in the team’s interest (nor the player’s interest), to put the pitchers at risk of arm surgery and under-performance next season due to overwork this season.
Let’s examine three of the rotation’s five pitchers. Below, I show the current innings pitched, 2024 extrapolated innings pitched, career high innings pitched, and the excess innings between the 2024 expected innings and the career high innings. For purposes of this comparison, I have combined minor league and major league innings.
Starting Pitcher Innings Pitched
2024 current innings / Projected 2024 innings / Career High / Excess
Brown 69 IP / 157 IP / High IP: 156 / Excess IP 1
Arrighetti 63 IP / 142 IP / High IP: 124 / Excess IP 18
Blanco 77 IP / 174 IP / High IP: 125 / Excess IP 49
As I recall, in the past the Astros tried to limit young starters to a 30 inning increase over their previous high season. By that test, Blanco is well on his way to exceeding that limit. Brown’s extrapolated 2024 season inning total appears to be fine, though it may be somewhat low, given his recent games in which he pitched 6 innings. Arrighetti’s total doesn’t exceed a 30 inning increment, but this may not be a good test for limiting him. All of Arrighetti’s “career high innings” are in the minor leagues, and major league innings may be more stressful. Perhaps he deserves a somewhat lower limit.
It may be useful to examine their work load on a more granular total batters faced (TBF), since not all innings require an equal work load. I’m not sure of an appropriate threshold, but I will assume that concern is raised if the increment of batters faced is 20% higher than the 2023 TBF.
2024 total batters / Projected 2024 TBF / 2023 TBF / Excess %
Brown 297 TBF / 668 batters / 2023 TBF: 665 / Excess >1%
Arrighetti 288 TBF / 649 batters / 2023 TBF: 521 / Excess 24%
Blanco 306 TBF / 689 batters / 2023 TBF: 528 / Excess 30%
If 20% increase in batters faced is cause for concern, than both Arrighetti and Blanco fit into that risky category. Again, Brown appears to be on track for repeating 2023 total batters. My conclusion is that the Astros may need to limit Blanco’s and Arrighetti’s incremental work load this season. This might be particularly painful from a competition standpoint, since Blanco so far has the best Astros’ run prevention numbers.
However, limiting two of the starters work load is problematic when the Astros have so little depth of starting pitching. In addition, how does this affect the Astros’ ability to deal with any unexpected future uses of the injured list for these three pitchers as well as for Verlander and Valdez? History tells us that an unexpected IL stint for someone will happen.
What kinds of options are available to Dana Brown:
- Will Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia return from rehab in time to help? When I reviewed pitching depth at the beginning of the season, I said the Astros shouldn’t count on these two returning, but rather should regard any help they provide as an unexpected bonus. Now the Astros must count on both pitchers returning in the second half of the season. Potentially, Garcia may return in late July and McCullers in August. My impression is that the August target for McCullers may be more uncertain. If both pitchers return on a schedule in that range, it will provide a cushion to reduce the work load for Blanco and Arrighetti. Of course, as much as the Astros need them to return soon, rehab time can be uncertain and subject to setbacks.
- If Garcia and/or McCullers return, the Astros can use a six man rotation or tandem starts to control the work load in the second half. But that involves an “if,” because it is contingent on their rehab going perfectly well.
- The existing AAA depth is where Dana Brown would look for options first But there are no obvious candidates there, and any moves may involve calling up starting pitchers before they are ready to take a big jump to the MLB level. Blair Henley might be the first to see a spot start, given that he occupies a spot on the 40 man roster and has seen one brief (albeit disappointing) start in the majors. Henley is a pitch to contact starter with a 5.00 ERA at Sugar Land. Other possible depth candidates— Sugar Land ERA in parentheses: Lauer (6.30); Gordon (4.43); Blubaugh (4.00); Gusto (6.84); Kouba (7.45); and Tamarez (7.66). Using multiple pitchers from this group would require some GM gymnastics in order to manipulate the 40 man roster.
- Trade for a ML starting pitcher. I am skeptical of this option, because I expect starting pitcher trading costs to be very high at the July 30 deadline. And, given the need to rebuild the Astros’ farm system, I contend that the Astros front office must be very careful and judicious in trading prospects. Are there under-the-radar trades which would be less costly? Maybe, but at this point, I don’t have any suggestions.
- Trade for a ML depth starting pitcher in the minor leagues. This would mean targeting someone else’s “depth” stashed away in AAA. After a surface search for this type of older pitcher in the International or Pacific Coast leagues, I only found Dallas Keuchel, who pitches in the Seattle minor league system. I’m not sure if he has contractual language with Seattle that permits him to be released if he has other opportunities. It’s also possible that there are similar veteran pitchers in the minors whom I didn’t identify.
- Use innovative strategies that would utilize relief pitchers to help solve the rotation depth issues. For instance, the “opener” strategy has been utilized successfully by other teams, such as the Rays and Dodgers. A relief pitcher starts the 1st through 2d inning, to be followed by the “bulk” pitcher (who can be one of the starting pitchers), and then followed by middle/late inning relievers. This permits the starter or bulk pitcher to pitch limited innings (perhaps 4 or 5), with the added advantage of reducing the times they are seen by the opposing lineup. In my view, Taylor Scott might be a good candidate for opener. In addition, Sugar Land has a number of relief pitchers who have performed relatively well. Also, trading for a relief pitcher, rather than starting pitcher, at the deadline may be more viable.
Dana Brown may have other options available to him. But I have laid out the main ones that come to mind. And it may require some creativity on his part.