What does a Framber Valdez extension look like?
The headline picture gives it away. We are comparing Framber Valdez to another pitcher to determine what an extension might look like. One of the advantages of waiting to re-sign guys is that there is always more clarity about what their value is in comparison with other players. The disadvantage is that this clarity might not give you the news you are hoping to hear.
In particular, we are doing this test to demonstrate what a Framber free agent contract might look like. I must always throw in the caveat that this is not my money and simply releasing this is not an endorsement of the Astros or any other team signing him to such a contract.
Framber became a regular pitcher in 2020, so we will compare him to the other pitcher since that season. We will look at some of the basic numbers, ERA estimators, and I’ll even throw in a modified version of my Hall of Fame index. Hopefully the combination will give us a better idea.
Conventional Numbers
Player A: 112 GS, 54-25, 659 INN, 2.81 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9
Player B: 122 GS, 60-33, 781 INN, 3.12 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9
Those of you out there that are seamheads can probably identify Framber in this comparison. However, we will continue as if it is still a mystery. I am working under the immediate assumption that teams will have their own preferences based on these numbers. Some will prefer Pitcher A because he has a better ERA and better winning percentage. Others will prefer Pitcher B because he has been more durable and pitches deeper into games.
On that note, I should point out that Pitcher A has averaged 5.88 innings per start as compared to Pitcher B with 6.40. So, Pitcher B has approximately two more starts per season and a half inning more per start. That’s not insignificant. However, we would be remiss to boil this down to the conventional numbers.
ERA Estimators
Player A: 3.12 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 3.11 xERA, 3.68 SIERA, 3.33 Composite
Player B: 3.33 FIP, 3.20 xFIP, 3.73 xERA, 3.45 SIERA, 3.43 Composite
On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Given a long enough timeline in pitching, the ERA estimators will start to resemble the actual ERA, but in this case we just see both pitchers a little better than their estimates. Player A is further removed, so the gap is narrowed.
ERA estimates matter, but they matter less when we add a larger sample. What matters is the ballpark the pitcher will pitch in and what the defense looks like behind him. Both pitchers are extreme groundball pitchers, so they need good infield defense behind them, but might be able to survive in most parks. Organizations that want to commit long-term big dollars should consider these factors before signing anyone.
Hall of Fame Index
Player A: 19.2 BWAR, 15.4 FWAR, 34.6 Index, 3.46 per season
Player B: 14.8 BWAR, 16.3 FWAR, 31.1 Index, 3.11 per season
Player A is a little better overall, but that depends on how far back you go. If you want to eliminate the COVID shortened season then the two are almost equal. Obviously, agents are going to exploit every advantage they have. If we assume the average value per win is between eight and nine million then both pitchers would be worth between 25 million and 30 million annually according to current value. However, I am getting ahead of myself.
Contract and Reveal
Most of you probably guessed that Player B is Framber Valdez. Player A is Max Fried. Fried just signed an eight year, 218 million dollar contract with the Yankees. Now, is he better than Framber? That all depends on what teams ultimately want and value. Valdez is better when it comes to durability and volume. Fried is a little better when it comes to quality. I think if you polled 30 general managers on a secret ballot then the end result might be fairly split.
2025 will be Max Fried’s age 31 season. Framber is also entering his age 31 season. So, I’m sure his agent is looking for the same contract. Maybe he would be willing to take eight years and 200 million because he is not a current free agent and you have to give a little to get that long-term stability.
If you wait a year then you risk Framber having a down season. However, let’s assume he is similarly between three and four wins as he has been the last three seasons. He probably gets one fewer season on the open market, but we have to account for natural inflation within the game. If we bump up Fried’s AAV up five percent then we get an AAV of 28.61. That is almost exactly 200 million over seven seasons.
Likely Course
The Astros have never given a contract longer than six years while Jim Crane has been the owner. I just don’t see him breaking that for a pitcher. Yes, Framber has been durable, but pitchers are always healthy until they aren’t. I’m also sure that the associated health problems for Lance McCullers and Cristian Javier are significant detractors for him to take the plunge.
When I suggested that the Astros trade Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez in an earlier piece, this is precisely what I was talking about. If you know you aren’t going there, then you are better off getting something of value for him now. The Tucker deal already gives you a blueprint. You could get a functional outfielder, fringe arm, and good prospect and that would be similar value. That would also be more than the comp pick from waiting a year.
I could offer specific packages and likely will when we get closer to finding out who the actual suitors would be, but ultimately getting six baseball players is worth more than one year of Tucker and Framber and two comp picks. Of course, maybe the Astros change their mind on long-term deals. If so, then we already have the framework for a deal. Which direction are you going?