A historical perspective on a current Astro
Perspective is hardly ever found in the moment. Even when talking former and current Astros we have difficulty with perception. It goes without saying for most people that Jose Altuve is the greatest player in Astros franchise history. Certainly, there are points in his favor, but this is probably an opportunity for another one of my famous Player A and B tests.
Granted, most of the lore around Altuve revolves around the postseason. That is something we won’t look at that in this edition because it is inarguably that Altuve is the greatest postseason performer in Astros history. In fact, he is probably one of the top five postseason performers in all of baseball history. However, let’s put him through the index through year fourteen (2024) and compare him with another former Astro through his fourteenth season.
The Hall of Fame Index
Player A: 60.9 BWAR, 57.8 FWAR = 118.7 Career Value
Player B: 52.9 BWAR, 58.0 FWAR = 110.9 Career Value
For those that have read my index, you know there is a peak value component we are skipping over. I would imagine the breakdown would probably be pretty similar because both players are running through year 14. So, Player A is slightly better than Player B overall, but that is because of the BWAR. In terms of FWAR they are practically identical in terms of value.
Naturally, this is where I have to talk about the nature of value itself. Saying two players are equally valuable isn’t the same thing as saying they are the same. Each player will reach their value differently and depending on the needs of the team at the time, portions of that value could be more important. For instance, a gifted fielding team overall might not need another gifted fielder as much as they might need a gifted hitter. Of course, the reverse is also true.
Offensive Value
Player A: 121 OPS+, 44 Rbaser, .375 rOBA, .612 OW%
Player B: 129 OPS+, 16 Rbaser, .367 rOBA, .633 OW%
Player B is the better offensive player, but that is relative to the league as well. Player A played in a better offensive period overall, so his overall contributions (reflected in rOBA) were not as good as Player B’s. However, we have to remember that all of these numbers came through year 14.
Interesting though, one of the criticisms of Player B has been base running. It should be noted that he is a better than average base runner overall, but when compared to Player A he falls about three wins short. I imagine everyone has figured out the identity of our two players, but I’m going to keep it under wraps for now.
Fielding Value
Player A; -33 Rfield, 3.0 DWAR
Player B: -78 Rfield, -2.3 DWAR
Ironically, Player A and Player B are more alike than we might think. Neither of them were gifted defensive players and both of them have now changed positions in their career. It appears as if Player A is not only a better fielder, but also a more valuable fielder. Those two things are not always the same. Some positions are considered to be more valuable than others, so an average defender at say catcher could be a more valuable defender than a very good left fielder.
Both of these players spent a majority of their careers at second base. It should be noted that one of these two players kept playing beyond year 14 and saw his defensive numbers fall off a cliff. Of course, that kind of dovetails into my next point.
MVP and BWAR points
Player A: 15 MVP points, 16 BWAR points
Player B: 27 MVP points, 15 BWAR points
Reputation matters and Player B is obviously more accomplished in terms of reputation. That will make a big difference when the Hall of Fame vote comes up. However, I can’t help but notice how similar they are in terms of actual value. So, the overall index and the season by season totals pretty much say the same thing. These two players are very similar in terms of value.
I will tell you that Player B is Altuve and Player A is Craig Biggio. Knowing that Altuve CAN still build on this legacy is certainly important. However, the more important point is coming up shortly and the whole reason for doing this comparison will become quite clear.
The Overall point
A part of our perception of these two players comes in the fact that we saw the decline phase of Biggio’s career. There can be little doubt that he chased 3000 hits and that chase cost him in terms of value. He put up only 4.6 BWAR between 2002 and 2007. That’s a period of six seasons where he produced far less than one WAR per season. In particular, that last season was dreadful.
The big culprit there was the defense. He was a combined -68 Rfield in those six seasons which pushed his career Rfield past -100 total. Since some of those seasons came in the outfield, his overall DWAR also finished with a combined -5.9 DWAR in those six seasons. I’m sure for many Astros fans of a certain generation, those final seasons tainted his overall legacy some.
There are two things we know for certain about Jose Altuve. First, he is in the decline phase of his career. We can no longer doubt that as Father Time is undefeated. Secondly, we have no idea of what his decline phase will look like. That’s just a fact. I am sure people much smarter than me have some educated guesses. Maybe he is the kind that will gradually decline. Maybe he is the kind that will fall off of a cliff. We simply can’t know for sure.
However, a small part of the lore around him being the best Astro ever comes from the fact that we have not seen that decline phase yet. We might be seeing the first signs of it this season. Granted, a large part of the lore is the postseason performance and nothing can ever replace that. Still, I have a hard time calling him the best Astro of all time when others have been more accomplished overall. He might still get there, but we can’t know for sure until we see it.
Editor’s note:
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