The Astros’ dwindling pitching depth creates a challenge.
The Astros are in the midst of a 17 game stretch without a day off. This period strains the Astros’ starting pitching depth. In order to avoid stressing the rotation’s arms, the Astros may rely on a six man rotation. However, half of the pitchers in this rotation have question marks. It shapes up as a potential bumpy ride over the next couple of weeks.
From the beginning of the off-season, I flagged pitching depth as a potential problem in 2025. The Astros chose not to replace Verlander and Kikuchi with free agent signings. Instead, the Astros acquired Hayden Wesneski in the Kyle Tucker trade and put their hope in a long list of surgically repaired pitchers.
On Friday the Astros revealed that Wesneski would be undergoing TJ surgery this week Spencer Arrighetti, the No. 4 rotation pitcher, previously was placed on the Injured List after a freak accident involving a broken finger and an errant batted ball during pre-game practice. Out of the list of rehabilitating starting pitchers (Garcia, France, Javier, LMJ) only Lance McCullers, Jr. has returned at this point in the season.
Chandler Rome’s article at the Athletic provides details on the Wesneski saga. Wesneski appeared to offer reliable No. 5 pitcher production in the early weeks of the season. However, after a late April start against the Royals, Wesneski experienced a drop in velocity, and the Astros removed him from the rotation for 11 days. Rome writes that Manager Joe Espada insisted that Wesneski was healthy. Hayden experienced a rocky 40 pitch first inning in his next start, and he was placed on the IL with “elbow discomfort.” The discomfort was so severe that Wesneski could not move his elbow.
Eventually Wesneski’s orthopedic surgeon confirmed the need for surgery, which could keep Wesneski out for most or all of 2026. Rome speculates that the Astros could face a decision on whether to non-tender Wesneski next off-season, given that he may not contribute in 2026. According to Rome:
“Whether general manager Dana Brown or owner Jim Crane is concerned about the optics of allowing a piece of the Tucker trade to appear in only six games as an Astro could be a fascinating subplot to the decision. That Wesneski isn’t eligible for free agency until 2029 may work in the pitcher’s favor.”
Hopefully the Astros can work out a solution to this “sub plot” which retains Wesneski as a member of the organization in 2026.
The Astros problematic depth in the rotation led the Astros to claim Oakland 32 year old starting pitcher Jason Alexander off waivers. Alexander started four games for the A’s, but was DFA’d after posting terrible numbers (x-ERA of 9.76). A major reason for the ERA result was a blow out beating by the Dodgers’ bats (19-2 A’s loss), Alexander gave up 9 runs in 2.1 innings in that start, which resulted in the DFA.
Why would the Astros claim him? First, the lack of depth and, second, the availability of minor league options. The Astros recently DFA’d reliever Tayler Scott, and I suspect his lack of options was a significant reason. Over the next couple of months, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alexander is part of a “rotation-within-the-rotation” of AAA pitchers who pitch a spot start and then return to the minors. For the time being, Alexander will pitch in Sugar Land.
What does Alexander offer besides an elevated ERA? Normally he has a high ground ball rate. This year with the A’s organization, Alexander pitched to a sub-2 ERA with Las Vegas (AAA) and posted a 64% ground ball rate in the minors. And a 50% – 60% ground ball rate is characteristic of Alexander throughout his minor league career. Alexander did not induce ground balls at the major league level with the A’s (36%), probably leading to the poor results.
Perhaps the Astros can help him restore his ground ball ways.
Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and Ronel Blanco have been the foundation of the Astros’ rotation so far. And they are currently pitching well. But the next three slots in the six man rotation bring more question marks. Those pitchers are: Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr., and Colton Gordon. Gusto and Gordon currently are on the 26 man roster, but they also could be replaced with A.J. Blubaugh or Alexander if necessary. In the 6 man rotation, an idle starter can be pushed into long relief work if another starter has to leave his game early. And, when that happens, starters with options, like Blubaugh or Alexander could be called up for that player’s next start.
Why do I say question marks? Start with the current ERA. I know that ERA in these small samples can be misleading. But it gives us some idea as to their past performance.
2025 ERA/ERA+ (MLB): Gordon 6.23 / 5.12; McCullers 7.88 / 8.75; Gusto 4.65 / 4.52; Blubaugh 4.50 / 4.05; Alexander 18.00 / 9.76.
Some thoughts and concerns:
- Gordon is a pitch to contact LHP, who put up the best numbers in AAA Sugar Land this year; he normally is very stingy with BBs, and he should show better results if he pitches to his prior low BB%. It would also be good if he induces more ground balls than he did in his first start. He shows his best stuff on the slider, according to Stuff+. PitchBot estimates an stuff based ERA of 3.60, which is encouraging in the tiny sample.
- McCullers: His command has been poor since returning from the IL (Location+ of 85) and his fastball velocity is low 90’s mph. Perhaps this is to be expected after arm surgery and a two year layoff. I suspect that his stuff and command will improve over time, as he builds up arm strength. Stuff+ says his Slider and Knuckle Curve have been the best pitches so far. We can hope that the improvement process speeds up. Until then he will try to get by with guile. But the question marks are obvious.
- Gusto: He is primarily a fastball, slider, cutter pitcher. He has given up hard hits, with almost a 50% hard hit rate and Exit Velocity over 91 mph. But he exhibits a good strike out rate per 9: 9.29. But his 3.77 walk rate per 9 has turned into a problem. Gusto pitched well in his first few starts, but his recent relief appearances have been marred by too many walks. Stuff+ likes both his fastball and slider.
- Blubaugh: He probably has the best stuff of the group, as evidenced by his 13.5 K/9. But he gives up hits in the air (25% ground ball rate in his ML start), which can lead to home runs if the exit velocity is high. And in his one start he allowed high EV (97 mph) and high hard hit rate (75%). But based on that tiny sample, Stuff+ very much liked his stuff (Pitch+ of 108 and PitchBot ERA of 3.39). For some reason, his AAA ERA this year is somewhat inflated (6.23) and his BB rate per 9 (5.45) is not something you would want to see at the ML level.
- While there may be other interesting starters in AAA, they are not on the 40 man roster. One advantage of putting Alexander on the 40 man is that he can be more readily DFA’d if other players need to be added to the 40 man. Generally the Astros would prefer not to put prospects on the 40 man until they have to do so.
The Astros face a challenge filling out the rotation—at least until Spencer Arrighetti returns from the IL. With the current state of the team’s run scoring, the problematic nature of the starting pitcher depth could prove to be devastating. Or more optimistically, perhaps the Astros find that some of the depth turns out to be diamonds in the rough. Or maybe on a positive note, the team’s batters begin to produce more runs, which would allow a greater margin for error in the rotation..