The Astros and Rays have had conversations involving Tampa Bay starter Shane Baz, report Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is close to fruition, nor is it a lock that the Rays trade him at all. Baz is presumably one of a number of targets for a Houston team that is trying to add a starter — ideally via trade, given their payroll constraints.
Baz, 26, would fit the bill from an affordability perspective. He’s in his second of four trips through the arbitration process, but early-career injuries kept him from accruing significant earnings in year one. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $3.1MM sum next season, and he’s under club control through 2028.
A first-round pick out of high school by the Pirates in 2017, Baz was traded to Tampa Bay in the lopsided Chris Archer deal a year later. The 6’3″ righty developed into one of the sport’s top pitching prospects but has yet to reach the mid-rotation or better ceiling for which he was lauded. He dealt with multiple elbow issues over the early part of his MLB career. Those culminated in September 2022 Tommy John surgery. He missed the following season and spent some time in Triple-A in ’24, so he didn’t return to Kevin Cash’s rotation until around the All-Star Break that year.
Baz turned in a 3.06 earned run average across 14 starts down the stretch. That was aided by a .229 average on balls in play that papered over league average strikeout and walk numbers. The results swung in the opposite direction this year. Baz held a rotation spot all season and made 31 starts, but he surrendered 4.87 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate actually climbed three percentage points to a solid 24.8% clip, but a spike in the BABIP and an uptick in home runs led to much worse overall results.
Despite the uneven year, Baz would have a lot of trade value. Controllable starting pitching is very difficult to acquire. That’s especially true when it’s a former top prospect who averages 97 MPH on his fastball. Baz has a four-pitch mix and did a solid job handling left-handed hitters. His command isn’t elite but close enough to league average to stick as a starter. He has so far been held back by a lack of start-to-start consistency. Baz allowed one run or fewer 10 times (including seven scoreless appearances) but also had 10 outings in which he gave up five or more runs.
Tampa Bay is under no pressure to trade Baz, but they tend to be open to conversations on almost anyone on the roster. There’d be some parallels to last summer’s deadline deal in which they shipped Taj Bradley to Minnesota (though he’d fallen far enough in their view that they’d optioned him to Triple-A shortly before trading him). They swapped Bradley for a controllable high-leverage reliever in Griffin Jax and would presumably want to build a Baz return mostly around MLB pieces as well.
The Astros have one of the weakest farm systems in the game. Speaking broadly about the team’s trade conversations, general manager Dana Brown acknowledged to The Athletic that opposing clubs have focused more on their big league roster. Center fielder Jake Meyers is reportedly available in talks for a starter.
While there’s no firm indication that Meyers is a target for the Rays specifically, he’d make sense given their outfield questions. Tampa Bay did sign Cedric Mullins to a one-year deal last week, but he could factor into an uncertain corner outfield mix if the Rays acquired a superior defender in Meyers. It’s unlikely that Tampa Bay would agree to a one-for-one swap given the scarcity of starting pitching, however. Rome and Rosenthal report that the Rays like High-A pitching prospect Anderson Brito, who could be a secondary piece in a larger deal.
The Astros are expected to lose Framber Valdez, leaving them with plenty of questions behind ace Hunter Brown. They’ll slot Cristian Javier in the mix and have the likes of Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson and Lance McCullers Jr. competing for spots. It’s not nearly deep enough for a team that intends to compete for the AL West title.
Houston has been linked to some free agent possibilities (Ranger Suárez, most notably). They’re reportedly reluctant to surpass the $244MM luxury tax line, though, and RosterResource has them less than $25MM from the threshold. They could also use a left-handed hitting utility infielder and a backup catcher, and they’ll want to keep some payroll space aside for midseason additions. That might inhibit their ability to add a mid-rotation arm in free agency. Relatedly, Brown told reporters (including Rome) this evening that the club would prefer not to sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer and would cost them draft compensation. That lists includes Suárez, Michael King and Zac Gallen.