The Astros announced Friday that they’ve released first baseman Jose Abreu. The former American League Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM contract. Houston will eat the remainder of the money still owed to Abreu on that deal.
Houston selected the contract of catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel from Triple-A Sugar Land, reports KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander. In 201 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, Hummel boasts a .301/.423/.509 slash (135 wRC+) with seven homers, 13 doubles, eight steals (in nine tries), a 17.4% strikeout rate and a massive 16.4% walk rate. The Astros acquired the 29-year-old from the Giants via an April waiver claim and later succeeded in passing him through outright waivers.
While Abreu generally exceeded expectations in landing that sizable three-year deal, few could’ve predicted that the contract would go this poorly. Abreu hit .237/.296/.383 with Houston last season and began the 2024 season in such a calamitous funk that the veteran agreed to be optioned at a point when he was 7-for-71 on the season. Since returning, Abreu hasn’t looked any better, hitting .167/.186/.333 in 43 trips to the plate.
Overall, Abreu’s tenure with the team will come to an end with a shocking .217/.275/.351 batting line in 714 plate appearances. That’s about 28% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. When coupled with below-average defense at first base, Abreu was 1.6 wins below replacement level, per Baseball-Reference, and a full two wins below replacement per FanGraphs.
Although there were some signs of decline in 2022, Abreu still hit .304/.378/.446 that season. A good portion of his power had eroded (hence the pedestrian .141 ISO and career-low 15 homers), and a fair bit of his production was propped up by a .350 average on balls in play that the plodding Abreu was never going to sustain over the long run. The Astros, operating without a general manager for the first portion of the offseason, still paid a hefty per-year price to sign Abreu into his late 30s, with owner Jim Crane spearheading negotiations on that deal and on Rafael Montero’s own surprising three-year pact. Though the length of the pact was a modest surprise, it pales in comparison to how surprising the extent of Abreu’s decline has been.
Between Abreu and Jon Singleton, Houston’s lack of production at first base has been near the bottom of all Major League Baseball. Only the Rockies — Kris Bryant, Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Hunter Goodman — have seen their first basemen combine to deliver a lesser output than the Astros’ miserable .181/.262/.291 batting line. That dearth of offense from a typically bat-heavy position in the lineup has been one of many reasons for the Astros’ disappointing 31-38 record. Houston sits eight games back of the division-leading Mariners and six games out in the AL Wild Card hunt (with six teams to leapfrog in order to claim one of those three spots).
Abreu’s contract will now be dead money on the Astros’ payroll both this year and next. It still counts toward the luxury tax as well, even though he’s no longer on the roster. That dead money only further adds to a troubling long-term outlook that raises legitimate questions about the team’s ability to continue putting a perennial contender on the field. Despite their questionable long-term outlook and their 2024 struggles, however, general manager Dana Brown — hired after the signing of Abreu — has insisted that his team will not be a seller and that he expects to operate as a buyer in the run-up to next month’s trade deadline. The Astros reportedly have interest in adding multiple starting pitchers.
As for Abreu himself, he’ll now head to the open market and be able to field interest from other clubs. It’s unlikely that any team will place him directly onto the big league roster in light of his recent struggles, so he’d very likely need to settle for a minor league deal.
Whether Abreu is amenable to that sort of arrangement isn’t clear, but players often want to go out on their own terms rather than be forced from the game they love due to declining performance. Abreu’s willingness to be optioned earlier this season and the constant praise he’s received from teammates both in Chicago and in Houston regarding his work ethic and passion for the game could point a willingness to keep going. Teammates Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena and Kendall Graveman all lauded Abreu’s work ethic last September when discussing his late-season hot streak with Chandler Rome of The Athletic, as well as his impact in the clubhouse. That drive, combined with his sterling clubhouse reputation and outstanding track record in Chicago, could lead to interest on what amounts to a no-risk flier from a team with a need for help at first base and/or against left-handed pitching.