A Deep Dive. Compare and Contrast the two rookies so far.
Dezeno and Smith. Sounds like a buddy cop TV show form the 1980s. Zach and Cam are linked as the only two rookie position players on the roster. Both are outfielders who had precious little experience playing the outfield, coming into this season.
Even though it’s still small sample size, let’s check in on how both are performing so far this year. I initially thought about titling this article as a more provactive “Smith vs. Dezenzo.” But it felt like an unfair headline because they aren’t opposing each other. Still the tendency to compare both players is natural. When Yordan Alvarez returns, the two players may be in competition for playing time in RF. If Smith or Dezenzo goes through a sustained slump, it’s not inconceivable that one of them could be working on their game in AAA at some future point.
Offense
Dezenzo has put up better offensive number so far. Dezenzo’s wRC+ is 114 and Smith’s wRC+ is 93. The slash lines are compared below:
Dezenzo; BA .264 / OBP .346 / .SLG .389/ OPS .735
Smith; BA .214 / OBP . 313 / SLG .313/ OPS .659
It’s a small sample, but Dezenzo has hit well so far. I think most of us are fine with a 114 wRC+, given that it’s higher than the projected 102 wRC+ To some extent, the differences in the slash lines aren’t surprising, considering that Dezenzo is 26 years old with300-some minor league games under his belt, and Smith s only 22 years old with 30 games of minor league experience. Smith’s slash line might lend credence to the view that he should have been given more experience in AAA first. No, I’m not saying Smith should be demoted to AAA, but just pointing out that Cam’s hitting slash line probably is less than what the Astros hoped for when he was given an aggressive assignment to the ML roster.
An important caveat for Dezenzo’s nice slash line: his current BABIP of .391 likely is unsustainable. The projection systems assume that he can achieve an above average BABIP of .314 – .344, but that still means his BABIP probably will decline. The odds are that his batting average will regress somewhat, but we really don’t know how much it will affect his overall offense, which depends on changes in other inputs like HRs, Ks, and BBs.
Smith’s BABIP of .295 is more sustainable and almost exactly matches the BABIP assumed by projection systems.
Beyond BABIP , we can examine the Statcast “x stats” to evaluate whether the two hitters have been lucky or unlucky so far. In general, both Dezenzo and Smith have been unlucky so far. With neutral luck, both players would have shown more power. Dezenzo has been slightly lucky with his batting average (which is consistent with his high BABIP), while Smith has been slightly unlucky with batting average. But Dezenzo’s x-SLG is so much higher than his actual SLG that I would give good odds for improved power going forward.
BA and SLG vs. x-BA and x-SLG
Dezenzo BA .264 x-BA .258 SLG .389 x-SLG .449
Smiith BA .214 x-BA .239 SLG .347 x-SLG .357
Statcast’s EV50 is a good measure of exit velocity, and Smith and Dezzenzo check in with the same ranking (99.9 mph). Their exit velocity and hard hit rate are below average.
However, Dezenzo has excelled in barrels, which refers to the perfect combination of launch angle and exit velocity. He leads the Astros in barrel rate and launch angle-sweet spot. So, Dezenzo hasn’t hit a high percentage of hard hit balls, but when he does hit the ball hard, he does get the perfect launch angle.
Both Dezenzo and Smith have exhibited very good bat speed so far. Dezenzo is in the top 30% in bat speed, and Smith is in the top 10% for bat speed. Bat speed isn’t everything when it comes to hitting, but it’s generally a good trait.
It’s worth noting that Dezenzo’s launch angle is 3d highest on the team, while Cam has the lowest launch angle among the hitters. This probably contributes to Dezenzo’s more favorable batted ball results, since a low launch angle will produce too many balls caught by the infield.
Both Dezenzo and Smith have shown a propensity to strike out, with K rates over 30%. On the plus side, though, both hitters have good walk rates—which is something we don’t always see in young hitters. Dezenzo’s walk rate is 11.1% and Smith’s is 10.9%. While both Dezenzo and Smith whiff more than average, they both are good at staying in the zone, with below average chase rates.
Fielding and Running
The results on the fielding side are in contrast to the offensive comparison. So far, Cam Smith has been an excellent fielder and Dezenzo has been somewhat below average. The Statcast fielding and running bar charts are shown below.
Baseball Savant
Baseball Savant
Cam Smith enjoys a top 10% ranking in outs above average (OAA) with +3. Dezenzo, on the other hand, is in the bottom 15% in OAA (-2). An alternative advanced metric confirms these trends. Cam Smith is +5 DRS, which is quite good. Dezenzo has 0 DRS, which is composed of +1 with his arm and -1 in range. A comparison of their arms is interesting. Despite equivalent arm strength, Statcast views Dezenzo’s arm as more productive than Smith’s (80% vs. 19%).
Both Dezenzo and Smith are fast runners, but Smith enjoys the advantage. Smith’s sprint speed is elite at the 96th percentile, while Dezenzo’s sprint speed is well above average (75 percentile). Smith’s terrific speed is likely the reason that he overshadows Dezenzo in fielding range (OAA).
Again, given small sample size, the defensive comparison may look different by season end. But at this point, it appears that Dezenzo would be favored for his bat, but Smith would be favored for his defense. If there is a lineup choice as to which of the two plays RF, it might be reasonable to consider the type of pitcher that the Astros will have on the mound (GB vs. FB pitcher).
If the current batting trends continue, Dezenzo probably needs to bat in the lineup frequently. However, when Alvarez returns to the lineup, Smith may see diminished playing time—unless his offense improves. If Smith’s playing time is reduced, the Astros may have a future decision as to whether he should spend some time in the minors, where he could get more playing time. But that’s a question for later in the season, and lots of things can happen before then.