Are the fantasy outlets bullish on the Astros?
Last week we took a look at the hitters and predicted whether they would go over or under their fantasy projections. This week we are taking a look at the starting pitchers. I find looking at projections to be enlightening. It doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about players individually as some projection systems are more accurate than others. It does tell us why certain outlets predict the Astros will finish in third place in the AL West.
The same was true of the hitters as most of the hitters I went over on. With pitchers I think there is a factor that the prognosticators ignore. For whatever reason, the Astros seem to get more out of their pitching than most teams. It could be the pitching coaches. It could be the analytics department. It is likely a combination of things. Either way, this across the board condemnation of Astros pitchers is likely the cause of these outlets underselling the Astros as a team.
Spencer Arrighetti
These are the traditional fantasy categories. I usually begin by pointing I couldn’t honestly give two craps about win projections. There is so much that goes into that and the pitcher has little to do with it. There are bullpens. There is offensive production. There is just plain dumb luck. Either way, I am ignoring that category across the board and focusing on the other ones.
This is who Arrighetti was last season. That includes a first month to six weeks that was dreadful. Once he got his sea legs under him, he lived in the high threes as a pitcher. From July on he was averaging more than five innings a start and had a 3.60 ERA. I don’t think he lives there this year, but I would peg him closer to 4.00 than where the “experts” have him pegged here. Verdict: Over
Ronel Blanco
These guys are all over the place. Baseball Prospectus and the Fantasy Baseball Index feel more realistic. I don’t think Blanco is as good as he was last season. He was leaking oil by the end of the season and pitchers sometimes struggle when they are coming off of their first big innings output. So, I think a step back is appropriate to predict. Lindy’s is predicting a huge leap back and that has skewed the overall average.
I think Blanco is a little better than this. Like Arrighetti, I think he will somewhere in the low fours for an ERA and the starts and innings feels about right. Like many teams, the Astros have flirted with six man rotations and if they are able to swing it, I think Blanco will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the extra rest. Verdict: Over
Hunter Brown
Unlike the other numbers, these numbers feel a lot more reasonable and that makes it difficult to go on one side or another. Yet, I have made a commitment to go one way or the other. 170 innings is a career high for Brown, so you always have to worry about a step back. Still, the numbers above are a step back. However, Like Arrighetti, he was much better in the second half than in the first half.
You could credibly claim that Brown might be the biggest key to the season. If the Brown that showed up after the all-star break shows up again this team will be a pennant contender. If we get the first half Brown they may indeed finish in third. I suspect it will be something in between. I get nervous the year after young pitchers accrue big innings. I am predicting a slight step back. Verdict: Under
Luis Garcia
Last season saw the slowest start in recent memory. That was largely because of problems with the pitching. Garcia was out. Lance McCullers was out. Then, J.P. France, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy were lost for the season soon after it started. That’s a whole rotation by itself. The same might be true this season. McCullers and Garcia will start the season on the injured list. France and Javier may come back after July. The second half could see a loaded rotation, or things could be thin again.
I really am pretty comfortable with the numbers here. I am hoping the Astros have enough healthy pitching to run a six man rotation. I think it will be best for all of the arms and it can hopefully get them through the season healthy. Furthermore, you’ll notice that most of these numbers are similar. The Astros have deep pitching but not a ton of top end pitching. I can’t bet the over in good conscience until I actually see him on the bump. Verdict: Under
Lance McCullers
Believe it or not, McCullers seems to be further ahead of Garcia. I had just assumed that he was an HEB induced myth like the Loch Ness monster, or Big Foot. He is supposedly touching 94 regularly on the gun for the first time since 2019. We haven’t seen it yet, so we have to follow the same rules as we did with Garcia. On the other hand, the fantasy projections are much less bullish. So, I will lean the over, but just slightly. Verdict: Over
Framber Valdez
To put these numbers in perspective, Valdez became a full time starter in 2020. He has posted better ERA numbers EVERY SINGLE SEASON IN THAT RUN. I think FBI and Lindy’s seem reasonable enough. Baseball Prospectus’ numbers are insulting. He did have a higher FIP in 2021, but the rest of the time the predictive stats were also better than this. This doesn’t even mention that this is a walk season and he will be motivated to put his best foot forward.
The only possible way he can hit the under is if he gets injured. With the rash of TJ injuries in baseball it can feel like a matter of time before something hits him. That’s a question for later when it comes time to talk contract extension. For our purposes, you better believe he is going to be better than that. Verdict: Over
Hayden Wesneski
We should start with the fact that Wesneski has averaged close to ten starts the last two seasons. Then, we should contend with the fact that the Astros pitching coaches and analytics department seem to know what to do to get pitchers to the next level. That makes Wesneski a pretty oood darkhorse candidate.
Of course, considering that he is the guy with the most experience as a reliever, he is the best candidate to move to the bullpen when a full complement of starters come back. However, he is the first guy back in the rotation if there are any injuries. I’m guessing that gets him into 10 to 15 starts. The ERA and WHIP numbers are about right, but the innings and Ks are likely off due to the usage. Verdict: Over