Astros: Three Days To Trade Deadline

Quick Takes On The Astros As The Team Works to Get Back to the Playoffs and World Series

The MLB trade deadline is three days away—Tuesday at 5 pm CDT to be precise. The most recent comments by GM Dana Brown regarding the Astros’ trading progress is shown in the X tweet above. Brown expresses confidence that the Astros will acquire a starting pitcher and mentions that he wants a No. 3 or No. 4 rotation pitcher. Maybe this will change in the futures, but he seems to be looking higher than the bottom of the rotation pitchers discussed in my previous articles about possible pitching targets, which naturally will require more trading capital (i.e., prospects).

Some observations about Brown’s comments:

• Brown seems to be confident that payroll won’t be an impediment to acquiring a starting pitcher. He says Jim Crane realizes that the Astros need additional pitching which will affect the payroll.
• Brown would prefer a pitcher with team control for next year, but the priority is adding a pitcher for 2024, so it depends on whether a pitcher who meets the 2024 need also has remaining team control.
• Maybe it is GM-speak, but Brown stating that no prospect is “untouchable” sounds like he might package higher level prospects in a deal. Brown says he believes the Astros have enough prospects to make a deal. “So we’re going to do what we have to do to get it done.” Although he admits that there are some prospects he would prefer not to trade, he adds that if higher level prospects are traded, he would like a starting pitcher with more team control through 2025 and/or 2026.
• Athletics reporter Chandler Rome would be surprised if Brown were to trade No. 1 prospect and CF Jacob Melton. “Brown fought to keep outfielder Jacob Melton during last year’s pursuit of Verlander, according to multiple people familiar with the negotiations, so it stands to reason trading him would require a seismic return.”
• Brown has an interest in acquiring a relief pitcher and additional bat, but that is lower priority than acquiring a pitcher.
• Brown is not looking to trade a player off the 26 man active roster.
• John Morosi reports that the Astros and Tigers have had conversations about Jack Flaherty, a rental starting pitcher. Morosi also reports that the Astros are actively considering Erick Fedde, who has remaining control through 2025. The Astros have also been connected to Cubs’ starting pitcher Jameson Tallion, but it’s not clear if the Cubs will trade a pitcher with two years remaining control. Rome added the name of Blue Jays’ rental pitcher Kikuchi as a starter under consideration by the Astros.

Tampa Bay Rays and Paredes

The idea of a trade for the Rays’ 1b/3b Isaac Paredes has been linked to both the Astros and Mariners. In my opinion, it is unlikely that the Rays will trade Paredes, given the years of team control remaining. But in some ways Paredes does look like a fit for the Astros.

Mike Petriello posted on X:

The magnitude of HR improvement for Paredes in Minute Maid Park seems impressive. Projecting trade matches based on ballpark expectations is an overlooked part of targeting players for acquisition. Again, I don’t expect a Paredes trade to happen, but it does make sense for the Astros, as evidenced by Dan Symborski listing a possible Astros trade for Paredes as one of seven deadline trades he would suggest. Symborski’s proposed prospects moved from the Astros seems costly but it also looks to be fair based on past practice.

For those interested in Rays’ starting pitchers who might be available after the Orioles traded for Zach Eflin, the Rays have another Zack. Zack Littel is a 28 year old starting pitcher who could fit the No. 3 or 4 starter role. Littel has a 4.35 x-ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 3.95 x-FIP. However, the Rays may be reluctant to part with him, given that he is under team control through 2025 at a reasonable contract cost. However, if the Rays are inclined to reduce the number of arb-eligible players, maybe he would be available.

As for bats who may be more likely than Paredes to be traded, the Rays’ Yandy Diaz (1b/3b) is a RHB who is signed through 2025 with an option for 2026. His power numbers are down this year, but his wRC+ of 110 might make him a good platoon option between DH and 1b.

The Rays are known for following their own evaluation of prospects which may not coincide with prospect rankings. The Athletic interviewed Rays’ GM Erik Neander about the Eflin and Arosarena trades, which did not involve any Top 100 prospects. He noted, “I think more than anything we’re going to go after the players that we believe have the best chance long-term to positively impact our major-league team. Sometimes those players are really well known, sometimes they’re not.”

Thoughts?