With almost half the season done, two players have emerged as major talking points for the team, and both for similar, yet different, reasons. Coming into the season, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker were the two players that were expected to be getting the next long-term deal with the team so how they performed this year would be a massive statement for both.
Both getting drafted in the first round of the 2015 draft, they have both become staples of the team of the past years and have both been consistent on both a defensive and offensive standpoint throughout their careers. What is changing this year is that one of them is not performing and in a time like now, when a contract is on the line, both need to be playing at their best.
The season that Tucker is having so far in 2024 compared to Bregman is on another level. Tucker is putting up career numbers, all while Bregman is having the worst season he has had in his career. Is that to do with the pressure of a contract? No, probably not. But it is safe to say that now, it is not helping.
Bregman
Bregman, who made his debut in 2016, has been the primary third baseman for the team for the past 9 years. In those years, he has racked up good numbers for himself, with over 1000 hits, over 240 doubles, over 600 RBIs and a .969 Fld% and 23 DRS. These numbers lead his to 2 All-Star games and won him a silver slugger award in 2019. He was a key player in both the 2017 and 2022 world series wins, hitting 37 postseason XBH and collecting 54 RBIs.
162 g/avg: .272/.369/.482, 39 2B, 27 HR, 97 RBI, 133 OPS+
This is not the same Bregman we have gotten so far this 2024 season though. While Bregman is known to have slow starts to his season’s, this has been slower than normal. At the same time his production is slipping at the bat, he has seen a down spike in his glove as well, committing five errors already.
Mar/Apr Avg: 24.8 G, .255 AVG, 23 H, 2.8 HR, 11.8 RBI
Mar/Apr 2024: 26 G, .216 AVG, 22 H, 1 HR, 10 RBI
May Avg: 27.2 G, .265 AVG, 26.8 H, 5 HR, 15.8 RBI
May 2024: 29 G, .221 AVG, 25 H, 6 HR, 16 RBI
Bregman can obviously still turn his production around. This is all coming at the heels of what will be an off-season where he is going to be looking for a longer-term deal. As a Scott Boras client, the deal Bregman will be looking for a deal that is similar to the other contracts signed by free agent third baseman clients of his.
Manny Machado: 11 yr(s)/$350,000,000 = 31.8 AAV
Jose Ramirez: 7 yr(s)/$141,000,000 = 20.14 AAV
Austin Riley: 10 yr(s)/$212,000,000 = 21.2 AAV
All three of these players are all Boras clients who signed these contracts within the past few seasons. The only other similarity between all three of the contracts is that all the money in them was guaranteed. Machado was not only the one to sign the largest of the three, but he did it at the oldest age, 30.
By the end of the season, Bregman will be coming up on his 31st birthday, so asking for a contract of that size and for that long does not seem reasonable. Knowing the way Boras operates, he will likely want something between 7-10 years with an average of $25 million or more a year. I would offer him a contract more in the ballpark of 4-6 years and $18/20 per year, like that of fellow Boras client Matt Chapman.
Tucker
Tucker, who made his debut for the team two years later in 2018, has made himself a mainstay in the corner of the outfield since making his debut. Tucker made himself known as someone of value when he was avoided being used in many major trades made by the team thought his years in the minors, while still staying within the Top 100 every year.
He played in 50 games between 2018-19 before playing in 58 of the teams 60 in the shortened 2020 season and playing every day since 2021. In that time, he has only seemed to get better as the years go by. He has collected over 120 career home runs, over 130 doubles and over 400 RBIs in seven seasons. These numbers have earned him two All-Star nods as well as a silver slugger and a gold glove. He has also put up 8 doubles and home runs each in his five postseason trips, helping lead the team to a ring in 2022.
162 g/avg: .272/.350/.514, 35 2B, 32 HR, 107 RBI, 138 OPS+
So far in 2024, Tucker has put together arguably his best season up to this point in his career so far. While he has seen a slight average drop compared to where he is normally at by this point in the season usually, Tucker has seen a huge increase in power so far this season, putting him third in home runs and fifth in slugging at the moment.
Mar/Apr Avg: 25 G, .230 AVG, 4.7 HR, .416 SLG, 16.7 RBI, .718 OPS
Mar/Apr 2024: 29 G, .300 AVG, 7 HR, .555 SLG, 20 RBI, .967 OPS
May Avg: 25.3 G, .265 AVG, 4 HR, .472 SLG, 15.6 RBI, .825 OPS
May 2024: 28 G, .216, 11 HR, .598 SLG, 19 RBI, .962 OPS
When comparing Kyle Tucker to other players in terms of contracts, it is a much different discussion than with Alex Bregman ultimately, and a lot of it has to do with age and agency. Tucker, being only 27, has a few more years of production to be expected in him compared to Bregman. He also will likely not try and exceed his own value and shouldn’t be expected to be as stingy in negotiations for long-term as Boras, despite the previous few arbitration negotiations.
Bryce Harper: 13 yr(s)/$330,000,000 = 25.4 AAV
Christan Yelich: 7 yr(s)/$188,500,000 = 26.9 AAV
George Springer: 6 yr(s)/$150,000,000 = 25 AAV
Kyle Schwarber: 4 yr(s)/$79,000,000 = 19.75 AAV
When looking at these players, three of them are outfielders who have put up similar numbers to Tucker in terms of production at the plate and in the field and who all signed their contracts at or around the same age Tucker will be by the end of the season. As for Schwarber, he, as well as Springer, is with the same agency that Tucker is and recently signed a large contract with his team.
While he did not accumulate the accolades that Harper or Yelich had by the time they signed their deals, Tucker is someone who has put up MVP-type numbers in the past and has proven yet again this year so far that he will keep this production up for years to come. Being just 27 years old, Tucker is in the same spot that as some of these guys to ask for massive deals. Seeing him ask for a contract that is 7-10 years and $27-30 million per year would not be out of the question.
How the farm looks
When looking at spending this type of money on one player and looking this far into the future, another thing to consider IS the future. The Astros have eight different minor league teams over the five levels, which means there are a lot of potential players that could fill in either of their roles but is not something easy. Being ranked by MLB.com as the 27th worst minor league system in the league, the Astros will have to look very hard for someone who can fit in the roster.
AAA INF Will Wagner (25 yo): 47 G .303/.419/.406, 8 2B, 2 HR, 23 RBI
AAA INF Shay Whitcomb (25 yo): 60 G, .298/.381/.556, 12 2B, 14 HR, 54 RBI
A+ INF Austin Deming (24 yo): 44 G, .286/.372/.497, 10 2B, 8 HR, 26 RBI
(Rehab) ROK INF Zach Dezenzo (24 yo): 5 G, .450/.500/.600, 3 2B, 4 RBI
When looking at the infielder in the minors, there is not a whole lot that pops out. With no Top 100 prospects in the infield, the depth at the third base spot is not very deep. There are some guys who have looked good so far this year and have shown potential for the future. Pair of infielders Wagner and Whitcomb have both had outstanding seasons for the Space Cowboys so far, with Wagner getting most of his reps at 1B/2B with the occasional third and Whitcomb most of his al around the infield. Both have been everyday players and have gotten chances to show that they are ready to step up and fill a position and both only being 25 means there is much more improvement that can be made moving forward.
Two other guys who have been showing out at the hot corner this year are High-A Ashville’s Austin Deming and rehabbing infielder Zach Dezenzo. After getting drafted in the 10th round in 2023, Deming got off to an awful start last year in High-A, but has really turned it around this year. Still being as young as he is, he has time to grow and improve in the areas he is struggling in, like strikeouts.
Dezenzo, who was the third baseman for the Hooks before getting hurt last year, started on his rehab assignment this year and has picked up where he left off last year so far. Although he has not played in many games, in the ones he has played in he has looked much healthier and has looked like he will be back in at least AA ball soon. Like with all these guys though, he will need to work on the eye and cutting back on the strikeouts if he wants to be able to fill in that hole that could be left by Bregman.
AA OF Jacob Melton (23 yo): 33 G, .262/.326/.444, 4 2B, 5 HR, 24 RBI
AAA OF Pedro Leon (26 yo): 62 G, .288/.375/.527, 17 2B, 13 HR, 58 RBI
A+ OF Luis Baez (20 yo): 50 G, .292/.332/.481, 13 2B, 9 HR, 38 RBI
ROK/AA OF Zach Cole (23 yo): 25 G, .267/.377/.400, 5 2B, 1 HR, 11 RBI
When looking at the outfield farm system for the Astros, it does not look much better than the infield, but it is where you find the only Top 100 prospect on the team. AA outfielder Jacob Melton is the 71st ranked prospect in the game of baseball and has come out this year and been a leader for the Hooks. At just 26, he has a chance to come in and have an impact on the team right away if needed.
The same can be said for Space Cowboys outfielder Pedro Leon. Since signing with the team back in 2021 as an international prospect, Leon has been on the AAA team for what is now his third season and is having his best one yet. Playing in the most games on the team, he is tied for second on the team in OPS while only committing one error in the field in all those games. Spending most of his time in center this year, he has shown a massive improvement in his glove over the years after starting out as an infielder. The only problem is his age, as he would come into the league as roughly the same age as Tucker.
As for the other two, they are guys who have some time but are showing that they could be the future. Baez, who is the team’s second overall ranked prospect, has been shaping himself up to be the future since he first singed with the team at 18. As the High-A team leader in both doubles and home runs, Baez has been putting all his talents on display and is showing why he can and wants to be the next big name for the Astros in the future, despite being so young.
Cole, who is the third highest outfield prospect for the team, has been doing the same thing as Baez but for AA. As a 10th rounder out of Ball State, Cole has been putting his talent on the field for what is now his third season and is only seeming to get better. Although he, like most other prospects, have had some serious strikeout problems, he has still managed to improve his batting average year-by-year, showing that he is learning his way around the plate in preparation for big-league pitching.
There is also Joey Loperfido. After having two great minor league seasons for the team in 2022 and 2023, Loperfido started out the 2024 minor league season in AAA as the best hitting in the minors. Jumping out quickly to lead the minor leagues in home runs after the first month of the season, he got the call up and was rotating around in the outfield for the Astros. He looked good too, hitting .333 in his first 15 games in the majors. The problem is there is no spot for him on the roster right now. With other players getting hurt and the team needing to fill other spots, Loperfido keeps finding himself as the odd man out and the one that is getting called up and down. Losing Tucker could give him a shot to solidify himself a spot on the team permanently.
So, what do I think we should do?
While I am someone who grew up with him as my third baseman and as my personal favorite player, I think that the right choice is to give Tucker whatever he wants. I think that replacing someone like a good solid infielder is much harder than an outfielder, I think that the talent that Tucker has shown is something that you can’t lose. Over the past few years, it seems like Bregman has slowly started to go down in skill each year and I think that signing him to the type of contract that he is going to want would be a huge risk that I don’t think the Astros should be taking.
I think they have a lot of good prospects that could fit in wherever they are needed and with enough time, I think that one of them will be able to replace to productivity lost. It will not be something that happens instantly, and the team could seriously suffer for a time having to deal with the loss of a franchise third baseman, but it is what needs to happen to ensure success in the future for the team. They already have Yordan and Altuve locked up for the future and I think signing Tucker will be the next step to keeping the Astros dynasty they have built since 2017 going.