The Astros have a chance to salvage the season, but if they wait too long they will face the same fate as the talented 2023 Padres
The Astros’ season has been disappointing so far. (I can hear you saying, “tell me something I don’t know”). Can the Astros turn the season around? Yes, but… Always the “buts.” Yes, but they have to turn some trends around. And they have to start sustained winning soon.
In April, I wrote about three teams that played the Astros in the World Series (Nationals, Braves, Phillies) but had to make furious comebacks after a similarly bad start prior to June 1. That’s the optimistic way to look at the possibilities. And, if you like optimism, the 2021 World Champion Braves offer the positive outlook. The Astros current playoff odds (34%) according to Fangraphs are higher than the Braves playoff odds on June 3, 2021 (23%). The 2021 Braves didn’t post a win percent above .500 until early August 2021.
Recently I have wondered if the Astros will end up like the 2023 Padres. This is a decidedly less optimistic view. The 2023 Padres were a paradox. They ranked among the NL leaders in total individual WAR. The Padres had seven former silver sluggers. Their pitching ace won the Cy Young Award. As the 2023 season began, the Padres’ playoff odds stood at 85%, which is similar to the Astros’ 2024 preseason odds. By August 15, 2023, the Padres were 3 games below .500 and their playoff odds had dropped to 22%. Fifteen days later, the Padres’ record stood at 11 games under .500 and the playoff odds stood at less than 1%. At that point, the Padres began their “comeback” but ended the season at only 2 game above .500. Given the talent level and expectations, the 2023 Padres season was a debacle.
If there is a take away for the Astros, it’s this: don’t wait too late to begin a comeback. The Padres went on a 20-7 win streak to end the season, and even pushed it’s playoff odds into single digits, but ultimately they were eliminated from the final wild card spot with two days remaining in the season.
Like the Astros, that Padres team had some pitching injuries to blame. Musgrave and Wacha were injured in the rotation for prolonged periods. Hader had a good season as closer, but the Padres’ set up reliever was injured for half the season (Similarly the Astros have had under performance from their set up reliever.) However, some similar trends between the two ball clubs may tell us something.
Run Differentials
The differentials between aggregate runs allowed and runs scored is more predictive than actual win/loss record. That’s why the Pythagorean Record is interesting—even if we can’t explain why some teams under or over perform their Pythag. The Padres finished an incredible 10 games below their 91 win Pythagorean Record. According to Fangraphs, the Astros are currently 3 games below their adjusted Pythagorean Record. Can the Astros do a better job at synchronizing their offense and pitching on a game to game basis.
1 Run and Extra Inning Games
Extra Inning Games
W/L Win%
2023 Padres 2-12 .143
Current Astros 3-5 .375
1 Run Games
2023 Padres 9-23 .283
Current Astros 5-13 .278
The Padres were terrible in extra inning games and one run games. So are the current Astros. It’s an early trend this season, and it needs to stop.
Offense and Runners On Base
wRC+ Rankings
Overall
Current Astros 7th
2023 Padres 7th
Runners In Scoring Position
Current Astros 16th
2023 Padres 20th
High Leverage
Current Astros 26th
2023 Padres 29th
This is a trend that the Astros share with the 2023 Padres. The offenses are well within the top 10 of the MLB. But they just can’t perform as well with runners in scoring position or in high leverage situations. The Padres had been dead last in both clutch measures for most of 2023, but the clutch hitting stats began to regress in September when they went on the winning spurt to end the season. We have talked about it a lot. The Astros’ offense needs to perform better in clutch opportunities.
How important is clutch hitting? As Tom Verducci pointed out, every World Series champion since 2017 has been Top Five in batting average with RISP. (The Astros were No 1 and 2 in 2017 and 2022.)
Bullpen
The bullpens for both the current Astros and 2023 Padres and been given a lot of blame for the poor Win%. But surprisingly, neither team ranks terribly on Meltdowns. The Astros are ranked 8th on fewest meltdowns and the 2023 Padres ranked 15th in meltdowns. The Astros bullpen currently ranks 12th on the Clutch stat, while the 2023 Padres’ relievers ranked 26th in Clutch. The Astros’ bullpen ranks 15th in WPA and the Padres’ relievers ranked 21st in WPA. The Astros currently have the 12th highest blown saves, and the 2023 Padres ranked 11th highest in blown saves. The Astros’ bullpen ranking on contextual stats may not be as bad as we expect—and may even be better than the Padres’ bullpen. In any event, there is no reason the Astros can not staunch whatever bleeding has been caused by its bullpen.
OK, that’s it. The Astros need to avoid the Padres’ tail spin. Even highly talented teams can be susceptible.