Understatement of the year, but Hunter Brown didn’t have the best start to his 2024 season. In his first six starts through April 30, he allowed 25 earned runs in only 23 innings. He allowed three-plus runs in four of those six starts, including a rather disastrous nine-run performance in less than an inning against the Royals. While his peripherals at the time — 5.73 FIP and 4.35 xFIP — indicated that some of his issues were likely due to a higher BABIP (.444), those still weren’t quality numbers. Brown was a demotion candidate entering May and if the Astros rotation didn’t suffer a rash of injuries, well, I think he would’ve spent part of the season in Sugar Land. The results certainly warranted a discussion.
But due to circumstances outside of his control, Brown was kept on the Major League rotation out of pure necessity. Houston hoped that he could figure out his issues in the meantime. By this point, we already know about Brown implementing a sinker against the Mariners on May 5, specifically against right-handed hitters. It has become his most used pitch against right-handers, with a usage rate pushing almost 50% in July and August. Based on the pitch’s movement profile, it makes sense why Brown added it to his arsenal. Again, nothing necessarily new here, but worth pointing out one more time.
As I mentioned a moment ago, the Astros were hoping Brown would improve on the fly a bit, at least to an extent where he wasn’t a liability every fifth day. The sinker added a new dimension to his profile and provided a pitch with arm-side movement to help neutralize right-handed hitters. Before implementing his sinker, right-handed hitters had a .439 batting average and a .683 slugging percentage against Brown. Even the expected stats — .325 xBA and .483 xSLG — weren’t all that promising. A small sample of six starts, mind you, but you get the point. But his sinker, which exhibits more run inside than any sinking action, has been a major asset for his in-season improvement.
On top of a pitch change, Brown has also seen changes in how his pitches break compared to, say, 2023. First, let’s take a look at how his pitches are breaking this season.
And below is the 2023 version of his pitch movement chart.
Another changes Brown made entering this season was to drop his 2023 sweeper in exchange for a slider. But that slider usage saw a sharp downturn in usage — 17.9% in May to 0.9% in June — while his cutter made a comeback, especially against left-handed hitters thus far in August at around 30.8% with decreasing usage to right-handed hitters. I wonder if the glove side movement involved with his cutter is a more appealing option to him against left-handed hitters in a similar case as his sinker’s arm side action is favorable against right-handed hitters.
In any case, Brown has continued to tinker with his pitch mix as he attempts to find ways to neutralize both left- and right-handed hitters. While the sinker usage against right-handed hitters has been no secret in recent months, I am becoming increasingly curious about his cutter to left-handed hitters. The spike in August at the exchange of his four-seam is an interesting choice, but he did have a similar usage increase with his cutter against right-handed hitters back in June (32.8%) before dropping back to 13.4% this month. Regardless, Brown isn’t afraid to tinker and it has led to ace-level results since early May (2.59 ERA, 3.26 FIP in 111 1⁄3 innings).