How his 2025 moves are looking so far
Last off-season, Astros GM Dana Brown let Astros championship-era mainstay, free agent Alex Bregman, walk to Boston for $90 on a three-year contract, and traded slugger Kyle Tucker for three Chicago Cubs. Tucker was in his last season under team control. To his critics, Brown gutted the heart of the team. To his supporters, Brown did what had to be done to secure his team’s future success.
So who’s right? Early returns are mixed.
First, let’s look at the Cubs trade. The Astros traded 28-year-old, All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker for 25-year-old, third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and top prospect Cam Smith. Tucker has continued where he left off with the Astros, one of MLB’s Top 10 hitters.
But the grass is always greener on the other side. Isaac Paredes is not only the Astros’ third baseman of the future, but he is on track for the best season of his career and possible All-Star recognition of his own. It’s not just one year of Tucker for three years of Paredes plus some throw-ins. Paredes is holding his own this year so far, even as good as Tucker has been. Tucker has contributed 2.2 fWAR for the Cubs with a 154 wRC+. After a slow start, Paredes has 2.1 fWAR and a 149 wRC+.
But wait….there’s more.
It was highly controversial when the Astros promoted former first-round draftee Cam Smith to the majors after less than 20 games at AA and no experience at his new position in right field. Well, in a not-quite full-time role, Smith has contributed 0.8 fWAR in less than a third of the season with a 119 wRC+ and plus defense.
No, he’s not quite in contention for ROY, but expect an upward trajectory here on out —this season — and the next five under team control. Is it impossible that in two years, Paredes and Smith will double the WAR of Kyle Tucker? They have more this year alone with both players still moving towards their peaks.
Hayden Wesneski was a viable starter before he went down to Tommy John. You can’t count injuries against the value of a trade. That can happen at any time to any player. It could still happen to Tucker as it happened to him last year. But the Astros still presumably have a decent starting pitcher for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 in Wesneski.
Some might argue that the real trade was Paredes for letting former third baseman Bregman walk for $30 million a year. Let’s compare Paredes with Bregman.
Bregman is having a career year, except maybe 2019 when he should have been MVP. He has avoided his usual early-season slump with Boston. He has a 159 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR, but like Tucker, only marginally better than the younger Paredes. But Paredes so far with the Astros is ahead of Bregman’s career average 136 wRC+. And defensively, he’s not much behind last Year’s Gold Glove, Bregman.
Of course, the elephant in the room is the free agent acquisition of Christian Walker at $20 million a year for three years. By plugging the hole at first base, Dana Brown hoped to replace some of the production lost with Tucker and Bregman. At age 33, it didn’t seem like Walker was at much of a risk of a sudden drop-off in production. But so far, he is at – 0.4 fWAR with an OPS of about .600.
Is this on Brown? What would we be saying if it were Jon Singleton at first base doing about the same? And what responsibility do the batting coaches have? Free agents like Jose Abreu and now Walker come here to die, while Alex Bregman credits his resurgence to tweaks in his swing given to him in Boston.
I still think it’s too early to give up on Walker. His swing and bat speed look sound, and his xWOBA is 43 points higher than his actual WOBA.
Overall, Brown’s Tucker trade looks brilliant. I say the jury is still out on the Walker acquisition, and even if he turns out to be a gigantic flop, I don’t blame Brown for trying to fix the hole at first base with a proven 33-year-old. If Walker were producing even close to expectations, the combined WAR of Walker, Paredes, and Smith would equal or surpass that of Bregman and Tucker this year alone. Keep in mind, keeping either of them long-term was simply not realistically within the Astros’ budget.
The Astros are mediocre this year, but not because of Brown’s moves. The hugely disapointing performances of Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yainer Diaz are largely to blame, as well as multiple injuries to the starting pitching corps. And where would the Astros be in 2026 and beyond without Kyle Tucker AND Paredes and Smith?
Taking the long view, I give Brown a B+.