Cy Young and more….
I’ve seen some comments in the threads about Hunter Brown and the Cy Young Award CYA) or Cam Smith and the Rookie of the Year (ROY). Those awards are a long way off, but maybe we can take a very early look at how they and other Astros stand.
CY Young Award
The CYA is tracked by Fangraphs with a projection tool. Supposedly the FG CYA tracker does a pretty good prediction job by the end of the season. But what’s it look like now.
Hunter Brown’s current season performance ranges from 4th to 6th, depending on the model used. Brown is 4th in CYA Points method. That method is defined as: Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 – ER + SO/10 + W. An obstacle for Brown is that the American League has some terrific pitchers who will compete for this award. Current season in order of CYP
Fangraphs
For the CY Points model, Fried, Bubic and Eovaldi are the only starting pitchers above Brown (4th). Hunter Brown is 5th and 6th based on fWAR and RA9 WAR. The CYA Points model was a very accurate predictor through 2020. However, Fangraphs states “:The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior” Turning to the Projected FIP Adjusted CYP, . Brown is 4th with only Skubal, Fried, and Crochet ahead of Hunter. In addition, the model predicts that, by the end of the year, Framber Valdez will rank 6th in the CYA voting based on the FIP adjusted CYP.
So, don’t forget Framber because he also might be in the hunt for the CYA by season end. I would say Brown has some work to do if he wants a CYA. But I would love to see it happen.
Rookie of the Year
Obviously a lot of season remains to be played. So current rookie rankings are extremely speculative in telling us how the players will end up. Cam ‘Smith ranks 9th in rookie wRC+. Jacob Wilson ranks first among rookies with 161 wRC+, and Zach Dezenzo ranks 13th with 108 wRC+. Cam Smith ranks 6th in WAR, which incorporates some of his defensive achievement.
Cam will have to steadily improve his offense to have a chance at the ROY. My guess is that Wilson will be difficult for any of the rookies to beat. Other well know names like Dominguez and Kurtz may also be difficult to surpass. Cam is far down the list for rookie HRs (3), and Wilson, Kurtz, and Dominguez have more power.
But I wouldn’t give up on the possibilities for Cam Smith. A ranking of 6th – 9th is reasonably close to having a reasonable chance at 2d or 3d. It’s possible for under performance or injuries to waylay some rookies between Cam and first place. And, of course, if Cam continues to hit the ball well and perhaps shows a little more HR power, he could rise toward the top of the rookie list on his own.
Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
All Star Slots
All Star voting hasn’t begun. But I have some thoughts on Astros who should receive consideration.
First, Hunter Brown should definitely make the team. In addition, Framber Valdez should receive consideration for All Star Game;
Second, I believe both Josh Hader and Steven Okert deserve to be in the American League bullpen—at least based on performance so far. Okert is No. 1 in AL reliever WHIP (.56) and Hader is 6th (.79) Okert and Hader are ranked 7th and 9th in AL FIP (1.82 and 2.12) I suspect it is very likely that Hader makes the ASG. But Okert has enjoyed such a bounce back season that it would be a nice story if he also makes the All Star squad.
Third, let’s pull for Jake Meyers. Assuming that Jake Meyers keeps up his current performance, it would be really satisfying for him if he makes the ASG in CF. Meyers is 5th in both WAR and wRC+ among AL center fielders. He would need to beat out guys like Byron Buxton, Julio Rodriguez. and Cody Bellinger.
Fourth, get your ballots out to vote for Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes. Paredes has been a pleasant surprise defensively and he has been a key performer on offense. Paredes is No. 2 (behind Bregman) in AL WAR for 3d baseman. Pena has also been playing very well. Pena is No. 3 in AL shortstop WAR, behind only Witt and Wilson. (The fact that Wilson leads all shortstops in WAR demonstrates why he will be tough to overcome for ROY.) I feel like both Paredes and Pena have a good chance to make the All Star roster. Jose Altuve is a fan favorite and he draws a lot of popular vote. Let’s see how his batting stats trend over the next month. But I wouldn’t bet against Jose making the All Star roster again.
What are your thoughts?