The Astros and Jeremy Peña were apparently making some recent progress on extension talks, per reports from Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Heyman described the talks as “serious” while Alexander said the two sides were “deep” in discussions. Alexander adds that the deal in question would have exceeded $105MM over five years. However, Heyman notes that these talks took place before Peña switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. Earlier this week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that Peña had hired Boras to represent him.
Peña, 27, has long been a solid shortstop of the glove-first variety but his bat has taken a step forward this year. From 2022 to 2024, he produced a combined .261/.307/.399 batting line. He hit 47 home runs but only drew walks in 4.9% of his plate appearances. His 100 wRC+ for that span indicates he was exactly league average at the plate. But thanks to his glovework and 44 stolen bases, he was able to produce 8.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.
This year, he’s already up to 4.0 fWAR through 79 games thanks to a massive .326/.382/.495 line and 150 wRC+. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s currently riding a .365 batting average on balls in play. For context, this year’s league average is .291 and Peña personally had a .308 BABIP coming into the season. Still, there are some signs it’s not entirely luck. His 41.4% hard hit rate is a career high. He has 11 home runs, despite only hitting 15 last year and just 10 the year prior. His 5.9% walk rate is still low but an improvement for him. His strikeout rate is also down for a fourth straight year. He had a 24.2% rate in his rookie season in 2022, then 20.3% the year after, 17.1% last season and 15.9% this year.
Though there may be some regression coming, it seems fair to conclude Peña has increased his earning power with his bat this year. Perhaps he realized this as well and that’s why he made the pivot to Boras. The idea that Boras clients never sign extensions is incorrect, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Several big-name Boras clients have signed extensions, including Stephen Strasburg, Xander Bogaerts and Peña’s teammates Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr..
On the other hand, there is some truth to the fact that Boras clients generally lean towards trying out the free agent market. It’s possible there’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing happening. Do Boras clients look to maximize earnings because that’s the way the agency prefers to operate? Or do players looking to max out hire Boras because they have seen him play that game?
Whatever the reasoning, Peña has made the switch at a notable time. He came into this year with exactly three years of major league service time, meaning he’ll be at the four-year mark at the end of the year and on pace for free agency after 2027.
Peña is currently in his age-27 season, making a $4.1MM arbitration salary. A five-year deal starting in 2026 would buy out his final two arb years and three free agent years. Looking again to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for players in the 4-5 service window who signed extensions, the group has two clear standouts. Garrett Crochet recently secured himself a six-year, $170MM guarantee. A few years prior, Matt Olson got $168MM over eight years.
There’s a clear gap between those deals and what the Astros were discussing with Peña, so perhaps that is what has led to this pause. Since Peña is currently in his age-27 season, he is on track to reach free agency after his age-29 campaign. A five-year extension would buy out his age-28 through age-32 seasons. If he can keep putting up solid numbers, he should have more earning power by going year to year and hitting the open market younger. Though that naturally comes with the risk that his performance dips or he suffers a significant injury between now and then.
Ultimately, it’s up to Peña and what his priorities are. As mentioned, he’s making $4.1MM this year. He has already set himself up for a nice raise next year. He should have some financial security and could bank on himself if he wants. If he’s comfortable with the Astros, perhaps he would be willing to take something below full market value to stay, but then maybe he wouldn’t have hired Boras if that were the case.
For the Astros, they have extended some players, as mentioned. However, they have also let guys like Carlos Correa, George Springer and others walk to sign elsewhere. They signed Alex Bregman to an early-career extension but eventually let him hit free agency and sign with the Red Sox. Framber Valdez seems likely to depart after the current season. Kyle Tucker seemed unlikely to sign an extension and was traded in the offseason.
Payroll wise, the Astros are right up against the competitive balance tax this year and are clearly trying to avoid it, though they have more wiggle room going forward. RosterResource has their 2026 CBT number pegged at $135MM, about $100MM lower than this year’s. Arbitration raises will increase that numbers but the club is going to see commitments to José Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero come off the books. Their most notable impending free agent is Valdez, though they may feel they can replace him internally with their many injured starters potentially getting healthier by next year.
Looking farther down the line, McCullers comes off the books after 2026, Christian Walker and Cristian Javier after 2027, then Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader after 2028. Altuve is the only guy on the books by 2029 and they’re clear by 2030. It appears there should be room in there for Peña but he will have to agree on an acceptable price point.
Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images