Extension Watch Continues

Multiple players on the Astros appear primed for extensions, but little traction has occurred in recent years.

When the Astros hired Dana Brown in early 2023, I was struck by how candidly he spoke about extensions throughout his first season on the job. It was a refreshing departure, to some extent, from Jeff Luhnow and James Click. The previous general managers occasionally touched upon extensions, but not to the detail or energy of Brown. In fact, Brown would eagerly mention extending players throughout his first season on the job, most notably with Kyle Tucker.

Coming from the Braves, an organization known for extending its young core, Brown’s hiring looked like the Astros were seemingly intent on implementing a similar blueprint. His comments since his hiring have only added fuel to that speculative fire. But now, in his third season as general manager, only two extensions have been signed on his watch: Cristian Javier in 2023 and Jose Altuve in 2024. And, while not an absolute certainty, Altuve’s extension was never seriously in question. Of the club’s young nucleus, Javier’s five-year, $64 million contract stands alone.

The excitement of any extension talk from Brown has lessened in 2024 and 2025, at least from the outside looking in. And, to be fair, the lack of extensions is likely more of an ownership direction than Brown’s. For someone who was vocal as he was when he joined the organization about extending players, the relative inactivity on that front is rather telling. Jim Crane, after all, has long avoided contracts or extensions exceeding five to six years, so I suppose the relative inactivity shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

So, why do I bring up all of this extension stuff? For one, I have been meaning to write about it for a little while, but was also spurred on by the news of who Jeremy Peña has hired as his agent.

With Peña now represented by Scott Boras amid a breakout season, it stands within reason that the odds of an extension with the Astros have lessened. The long-term play here is clear, with only two more seasons past this one separating the shortstop from free agency. Jose Altuve’s pleas for Houston to reach out about an extension with his teammate earlier this season appear to be for naught. The same thought applies to Hunter Brown, who hired Boras as his agent in November 2024. While ‘never say never’ certainly applies, the likely scenario is that both Peña and Brown will be playing for new teams when their respective club control years end, if not sooner, as was the case with Tucker.

For the past few years, the Astros have missed the boat on extensions with multiple players, with possibly more joining the list in the future. Even James Click, who lasted not even three years on the job, could extend Yordan Alvarez. We’re not privy to any negotiations, or if they took place, but it is easy to pile on Brown because his hiring coincides with the start of this relative inactivity. Sometimes unfairly, I might add. To be fair to Brown, I don’t think he ever had a realistic chance to extend certain players, namely Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, and Tucker. By the time he joined the club, that ship had already left or was mostly out of the port. Those players have or will test the open market, barring a market value or higher offer.

In addition, Crane has to sign off on the extensions. It is his money, so he can decide how to spend it, for better or worse. Brown can only do so much, especially if Crane’s best offer and a player’s demands aren’t comparable. I think some criticism can apply to the situations with Peña and Hunter Brown, as both possibly could’ve been extended before their breakout seasons. To Brown’s credit, though, he foresaw how the Tucker situation would unfold and recouped some value before losing him for nothing other than a comp draft pick.

I also think Crane has developed a risk aversion to extensions for pitchers. I don’t have any data or support to back up this point, as it is more of a hunch, but it is accurate that the contracts to Lance McCullers Jr. and Javier have not aged particularly well thus far due to injuries. Click is responsible for the former, Brown for the latter. With the frequency of arm injuries having increased, it feels more like a when, not an if, when any pitcher will experience arm problems. Of course, Crane also spearheaded the effort to bring Josh Hader aboard with a five-year contract two offseasons ago, so what do I know?

Sooner or later, though, the Astros will extend someone else. Cam Smith and Spencer Arrighetti are logical candidates for extension offers as they still have multiple pre-arbitration seasons left. Yainer Díaz could make sense as he enters his first round of arbitration in the offseason. Those three stand out as the most likely on the current roster. I think there is value to be gained that Houston is ignoring on the extension front. But it all depends on the organization’s current view of risk, and at this moment, it doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon.