Are the Astros’ base stealing/prevention efforts working right now?
Last season saw MLB implement a series of new rules to add a bit more excitement and pace to the game (what, you mean everyone didn’t want to see the Houston way of dominant pitching, strategically designed shifts and all those things that made them the dominant force in the MLB?). There was emphasis on generating more stolen bases, with bigger actual bases and limiting pitchers to only two pickoff attempts per batter. In some ways, it worked for baseball writ large. For the Astros…meh.
As the 2024 season crosses the two-month mark, how have the Houston Astros done relative to base-stealing and preventing base-stealers? At one point in the mid-2010s, the Astros found themselves among the league leaders in stolen bags. No doubt a young athletic team with speed to burn did much to help that. As the 2010s moved into the 2020s, the Astros got a bit older, and with less emphasis on bag-swiping, they fell into the bottom-tier of base-stealing.
In 2022, the Astros rated middle of the pack in base stealing, finishing 16th (83 steals out of 105 attempts). Then again, that team was not reliant on speed, nor did they necessarily need the steals to get runs, as they finished 8th in runs scored and OPS. A strong pitching staff and overall offense did not place a huge premium on the steal. Kyle Tucker led the team with 25 steals, tied for 9th in the league. The team did show some increased aggression on the bags, building off a post-season run where they went 12 for 12 on steals.
When the calendar turned to 2023, everyone had to adapt to the new rules, Houston included. Houston upped the number of bases stolen to 107 but fell to 18th in the MLB. Other teams, more reliant on speed and having younger legs, took full advantage of the base stealing changes. Tucker again led the team, improving to 30 steals, only good enough for a tie for 15th. The Astros finished 5th in runs/OPS, so perhaps some of the aggressive base running helped set up more runs, but their offense was strong enough that it was probably not that huge a factor.
How have they done in 2024? Given that the overall answer is “really not great”, it is worth checking out their actions on base-stealing so far. They currently rate 15th in the league, so the standing is improving, logging 48 steals (on 59 attempts). Rough calculations have them on pace to steal roughly the same number of bases at ~105. Hard to say if the league ranking will remain the same. The OPS standings remain to usual standards (5th), but they are currently sitting 11th in runs scored. A number of issues are in play here, but the base stealing rate does not appear to add or detract from the run scoring. Especially with the team’s RISP struggles.
Base-stealing prevention:
The 2022 Astros rated 7th in the league in stolen base prevention. With Maldonado still at least a strong defensive catcher and the overall strength of the pitching staff, teams just didn’t have the chance to run much on Houston. Move the clock to 2023, and the ranking significantly decreases to 22nd in preventing stolen bases. Significant factors include the Astros’ catchers struggling to throw out baserunners and the pitchers struggling to adjust to the pitch clock. It still got them to the ALCS, but they didn’t help themselves in run prevention either.
What of 2024? They rank 23rd in the league, so it would not seem as if there is much improvement. While Diaz offers more of a bat vs. Maldonaldo (arguably anyone not named Jose Abreu offers more of a bat than him at this point), he is not proving all that successful throwing out baserunners. Perhaps given all the pitching struggles with the team, to include health and constancy of starting. Maybe that improves as the season goes on, but you can’t count on it. While the Astros’ run prevention is improving as the season progresses, they still have a significant gap to overcome. Likely teams, when they get runners on-base, will continue to press their advantage. With the inconsistency of the Astros’ offense and their pitching issues, that can be enough this year.
Overall, the Astros are adapting like the rest of the league to the new rules, and they will steal more bases. Yet their key to victory never relied on speed or stealing bases. It still boils down to strong pitching that prevents runners from ever getting on base and an offense that can hit its way to runs. Can they improve? Perhaps, but given all the other bigger problems, fixing the base-stealing, particularly preventing runners, rates somewhat low on the priorities. Good if they could, but don’t count on it.