Did the Astros do the right thing trading one of their all-time best relievers
From 2018 to 2024, there were three things certain in Houston: Death, taxes, and Ryan Pressly coming in late in an Astros game to preserve a lead. He is fourth all-time in saves with 111 among Astros relievers behind Billy Wagner, Dave Smith, and Brad Lidge. In one stretch from August 15, 2018, until the end of that season, Pressly had 21 straight appearances without allowing a run.
In his heyday with Houston from 2018 to 2022, his ERA was sub-3.00 for four out of five years, with peripherals to match. However, in 2022-23 there was a noticeable decline: ERAs in the mid 3s, decline in velocity, K/9 down from about 12.5 to nine.
Seeing the writing on the wall, the Astros traded Pressly to the Cubs for a low-level prospect, Juan Bello, but more importantly, the Astros were able to dump all but $5.5 million of Pressly’s $14 million salary.
Were the Astros correct in believing that paying another team millions for Pressly to leave Houston was better than paying him full price to play here?
When I looked at the stats, I was a little surprised. I had heard all about Pressly’s nine-run meltdown, his early-season struggles (he tended to have that problem here, too), and his high 5.40 ERA. But a deeper look gives a more positive impression. But an even deeper look, well, not so much.
When you subtract the one meltdown on May 6, Pressly’s ERA is 1.41. In 17 appearances since April 1, Pressly has only allowed a run in one game, the meltdown mentioned above, which occurred after having not pitched for five days. And if you’re going to give up runs, you might as well do it all at once.
But taking out the one bad game, you have to wonder if Pressly is pitching with luck at his back. His peripheral stats aren’t much better than ERA:
xERA: 4.86 xFIP: 5.04 SIERA: 4.96.
These numbers generally reflect the more granular statistics below.
BAA: .301 (career avg, .231) WHIP: 1.69 (career avg. 1.18) K%: 12.0% (career avg. 25.5%) K-BB%, 1.2% (career avg. 18.3%) EV: 92 (career avg. 89.5) HardHit% 50.8% (career avg. 39.1 %).
So, even if you exclude Elvis’ meltdown inning and consider only his other innings with the 1.41 ERA, a deeper dive would lead to the conclusion that Pressly has been pretty lucky.
Were the Astros right to dispense with Pressly?
Getting rid of him put the Astros under the salary cap. And although rest of season projections have Pressly around 3.65 ERA, that leaves him a low-leverage reliever on one of baseball’s best bullpens — and he’d be blocking one of our league-minimum-salary surprises.
Ryan Pressly will always be remembered fondly by Astros fans. But I wouldn’t mind if the 2025 Stros saw him in the World Series pitching for the Cubs.