Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes went on the injured list with a strained hamstring over the weekend, and manager Joe Espada last night suggested that the 26-year-old slugger won’t be back anytime soon. Espada called Paredes’ hamstring issue “pretty serious” and added that while the team is still awaiting further testing results before an official diagnosis and recovery timetable is provided, the injury is “definitely something that’s going to keep him out for a while” (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Espada could not definitively say whether Paredes would return this season.
It’s yet another brutal injury blow to an Astros club that has somehow weathered an avalanche of health troubles to sit atop the AL West. Houston has only gotten 29 games out of Yordan Alvarez this year due to an ongoing hand injury that was originally diagnosed as inflammation before the team eventually revealed he’s dealing with a small fracture. Jeremy Peña’s breakout season was interrupted by a broken rib in late June. He’s missed nearly a month. Outfielders Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Jacob Melton have spent time on the injured list; Meyers and Melton are there presently.
The pitching side of the coin has been even worse. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski both required Tommy John surgery by early June. Spencer Arrighetti hasn’t pitched since early April after suffering a fluke injury when he was playing catch in the outfield during batting practice and was struck by a batted ball. Luis Garcia’s rehab from 2023 Tommy John surgery is now up to well over two years in the making after some early-season setbacks.
Houston has persevered through it all, improbably sitting 17 games over .500 thanks in no small part to dominant pitching performances from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and several unexpected contributors (e.g. Bennett Sousa, Steven Okert, Shawn Dubin, Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walter, Colton Gordon). They’ve also enjoyed career-best performances at the plate from Meyers, Mauricio Dubon and catcher Victor Caratini.
Paredes has been a huge part of the team’s success, however, playing in 94 of 101 games and batting .259/.359/.470 with a team-leading 19 home runs. He hasn’t singlehandedly replaced Kyle Tucker’s bat in the lineup, but Paredes and Cam Smith — both acquired in the Tucker return — have provided above-average offense throughout the season.
With Paredes sidelined indefinitely, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that the Astros are now likelier to target an additional bat than they were prior to the injury. Houston had been looking around for a left-handed bat who could help at second base, but GM Dana Brown’s primary focus had been on improving his strained pitching depth.
It creates a fascinating dynamic for the Astros. Over the winter, it was clear that owner Jim Crane was only interested in exceeding the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season in very specific cases (namely, if it meant re-signing Alex Bregman at their price — not his). Trades of Tucker and Ryan Pressly helped keep the team’s CBT number under the $241MM first-tier threshold even as they brought in free agent Christian Walker on a three-year contract. The April trade of Rafael Montero to the Braves — in which they surprisingly found a taker for a portion of his underwater contract — spared the Astros just under $3MM of his salary and created a bit more breathing room. That could wind up being pivotal if Crane remains intent on avoiding the luxury tax.
RosterResource projects the Astros for about $235.5MM worth of CBT considerations — just $5.5MM shy of the threshold. Cot’s Contracts is a bit more bearish at $238.9MM. Both of those are estimates, as the exact calculations of CBT spending are not all publicly available. But they still paint a generally similar picture: the Astros have minimal wiggle room with which to operate if keeping that number under $241MM is still a priority.
The Astros could always convince a trade partner to pay down some of a new acquisition’s salary, but doing so would require paying an increased price in terms of prospects. Houston’s farm system is not well-regarded, though their player development staff continues to churn out players (particularly pitchers) who exceed industry expectations. If the team needs to stay under the $241MM level, finding pre-arbitration players would be one path to explore, though the prices on those players will be notable.
The Mets are open to dealing from their infield depth (including lefty-swinging third baseman/second baseman Brett Baty), presenting one possible path. Tampa Bay speedster Jose Caballero is a below-average hitter who bats from the right side of the dish but is a plus defender with 32 stolen bases already. He’s reportedly drawn trade interest. Houston could also look to buy low on a former top prospect like Minnesota’s Edouard Julien or the Cardinals’ Nolan Gorman. Julien is hitting well in Triple-A but has slipped down the organization’s depth chart. Gorman is out with a back injury at the moment but has provided average offense for the Cards. The St. Louis infield picture is getting more cluttered, however, and Gorman could be squeezed out when top prospect JJ Wetherholt is ready for a big league look. Those are speculative examples, to be clear, but that’s the type of move that could provide some infield help while managing CBT limitations.
Another alternative would be trading from the big league roster to try to free up a bit more financial freedom. The previously mentioned McCormick is making $3.4MM and doesn’t have a starting role, especially when Meyers returns. Trading him would trim about $1.22MM from the CBT bill (as of this writing, though that number will drop incrementally as the deadline draws nearer). One way or another, Houston will be one of the more interesting clubs to track between now and next week’s trade deadline.