It is time to finish the Altuve to left exoeriment
Every once in awhile you hear something patently ridiculous. I was minding my own business and listening to local sports radio when the on air personality said that the Altuve move to left field had been a “resounding success.” I almost called in in that moment to check to see if he was feeling okay, but I decided instead to check the numbers to see what on Earth he was talking about.
I love numbers, but sometimes the numbers don’t make any sense. Eventually, everyone is going to go back to the eyeball test and the eyeball test says this is not working. However, we should go back and outline the reasons for the move in the first place. There were two major concerns the Astros were addressing with the move to left field. First, you were trying to move a bad defensive second baseman to a position where he could hopefully develop into a mediocre fielder. At that point, you’d put a superior fielder at second and be better overall.
The second reason is that you didn’t have good offensive options in the outfield. So, you acquired Brendan Rodgers and assumed that between Rodgers and Dubon than you would get from Zach Dezenzo and Chas McCormick. Even if those were even you would still break even on the defense. So, let’s start with the left field defense in 2025,
Numbers have to make sense. The radio personality in question was using outs above average (OAA). I have always had a preference for defensive runs saved (DRS). It just makes more sense and that will be seen when we look at the second base data. However, I am sure you will notice something when we present the second base data.
We have a problem. Defensive runs saved says the Astros have been average defensively overall while Outs Above Average says they are the best team in baseball defensively at second base. Which one makes more sense? This is considering that Jose Altuve has played 11 games defensively at second base. Do you believe he has been a -2 or a +3?
Moreover, the logic breaks down even if you are relying on OAA. A part of that +9 has been Altuve’s resurgence (according to that metric) at the position. If we add up to the two positions then we are a collective +5 according to OAA at those two positions but you are a combined -8 defensively when using defensive runs saved. Obviously, your opinion of the move depends greatly on which source you end up using. In order to help us, let’s take a look at the 2024 data at both slots.
I have to start with a mea culpa. I’m missing a little over 100 innings here. Left field was a buffet of options and I didn’t include the likes of Cooper Hummel and others that played a few innings here and there. What we see are that the two sources of data are similar and indicate that the position was in the mediocre range overall. We have to remember we are a little past the one third point in the season. If you multiply the first numbers by three then you can get an approximation based on the pace you are on.
Overall, the decision to limit Yordan’s innings in left is probably the most important decision here. Yet, they are on pace to be -20 or more according to defensive runs saved and over -10 in outs above average. So, they are on pace to somewhere between one to two wins worse defensively in left field in 2025.
So, obviously, the Astros are on pace to be somewhere between neutral and +25 at second base according to the source. I just don’t trust discrepancies like that. It just doesn’t make sense. If one says you are league average and the other says you are the best in the league by far I am going to lean on the one that makes sense. The one that has Altuve at a pace to have the best defensive season of his career doesn’t make sense.
When we combine the two positions, they were a combined -13 defensive according to DRS and -8 according to OAA. The most likely scenario is that they have become average at second base and below average in left. Even given that idea, the best you can say they’ve done is break even defensively. Now, let’s take a look at the offensive numbers from the two primary second basemen not named Jose Altuve. We can compare that with the left fielders not named Jose Altuve or Yordan Alvarez.
Everything else being equal, you want to go with the better hitters. The whole idea behind going with Altuve in left was predicated on the fact that Dubon and Rodgers would be just as good offensively as Dezenzo and McCormick. As you can see above, that has not been the case. A large part of that is probably Rodgers going into the tank. Maybe DFAing him would change the calculus some.
However, I’d point out the difference in plate appearances. Neither Dezenzo nor McCormick have been able to get into a rhythm. When Dezenzo gets consistent at bats he starts performing better. I think if the two of them shared left field they would likely produce an OPS around .700. That’s considerably better than what the two primary second basemen.
Final Thoughts
One of the traps of commentary is the so-called hot take. The best way to throw out a hot take is say something has been spectacularly good or spectacularly bad. That would be a lie in both cases. The difference between Altuve in left and at second base has probably been on the order of a game. Of course, coming into Friday the Astros were trailing the Mariners by a game.
Over the course of a full season it might end up being two or three games. A part of that is defense, but a larger part is probably the lack of offense from second base without Altuve. Maybe there are some things you can do to mitigate that. DFAing Rodgers would be the main one. Maybe Shay Whitcomb could up the ante at second base enough to make it work. Maybe trading for a better second basemen could make it work. As things stand now, they need to move Altuve back to second base.