I don’t think this is controversial: The Astros likely overpaid when they signed Josh Hader two offseasons ago. Every contract involving a pitcher carries a risk, and this is no different for Hader, given his annual salary ($19 million in AAV) and the contract length (five years). However, the bullpen would be in worse shape today if they hadn’t signed him. Both things can be true. As someone naturally with a cautious eye for relievers, I found the decision to sign Hader to be a stark departure from previous norms with this organization. Still, the decision to sign has generally worked out so far.
Following an uneven 2024 season, where he posted a 3.80 ERA and a 3.50 FIP over 71 innings, Hader’s performance in 2025 was worth monitoring. Home runs were a significant problem for the left-hander last year, as he allowed 12 compared to 14 from 2021 to 23. However, if he could address that issue and bring it closer to his career averages, then a bounceback seemed likely.
Lo and behold, Hader has done that in his first 13 appearances of 2025 (1.80 ERA, 1.86 FIP in 15 innings). To be clear, home runs weren’t really an issue until later last season, specifically after early May. But his overall results have improved compared to a calendar year ago, and Hader’s pitches look better, particularly his sinker (113 Stuff+ in 2024, 122 Stuff+ in 2025).
Almost all indicators in Hader’s profile are trending upward this season, a welcome development for a bullpen with relatively more unproven arms than in past iterations. They needed this version of Hader to help stabilize the bullpen in any event, regardless of everyone else. He’s a key reason why, up to this point, the bullpen is among the best in baseball.
My interest is piqued regarding Hader’s pitch usage specifically. According to the pitch models, Hader’s sinker is grading better than his slider, and the overall results have generally improved. But he is also throwing the pitch at its lowest rate in, like, ever.
With a 55.7% usage rate, if the season ended today, it would signify the lowest usage rate in any season throughout his entire career. Consequently, he has noticeably increased his slider usage to 40.4%. Again, that would be a career-high if the season ended today. Hader’s slider has traditionally produced better results throughout his career and possesses some incredible attributes. He has achieved outstanding results in past seasons by leaning more into his sinker. However, an overreliance on his sinker may have benefited opposing hitters last season, as eight of the twelve home runs he allowed came from that pitch. Throwing more sliders, his best pitch, to counteract those effects has proven wise thus far.
Only time will tell how the remainder of Hader’s contract ages. But the results in the first month-plus of this season have proven encouraging. I’m curious to see if these trends continue, though. The Astros will need him and others to continue pitching well to compete in a crowded AL West.