The Astros are apparently trying to shake things up in their rotation. Manager Joe Espada tells reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Lance McCullers Jr. will be moving to the bullpen. The skipper emphasized that it would be a “short-term” move in order to “just change things up.”
McCullers has returned to the big leagues this year after two completely lost seasons. He didn’t pitch at all in 2023 or 2024 due to issues with his throwing arm. In 2023, he had surgery to repair his flexor tendon and remove bone spurs from his elbow. The recovery period dragged on longer than expected, preventing him from pitching in 2024. Since a forearm injury limited him to just eight starts in 2022, he had thrown very little over the previous three years.
His return in 2025 has not been triumphant. Since being reinstated from the injured list in early May, he has twice gone back on the IL, once due to a right foot sprain and once due to a blister. Around those IL trips, he has a 6.89 ERA over 12 starts. He has walked 14.3% of batters faced this year. He returned from the blister issue last week and made one start, walking five batters in four innings.
Despite the challenges the Astros have faced with their pitching this year, they are atop the American League West. However, their lead over the Mariners is just a game and a half. If the Mariners catch up, the Astros are only 4.5 games ahead of the Royals, the top American League team not in playoff position. Though the Astros are in a decent spot, they still have to win games for another month to crack the postseason.
It seems they have decided that McCullers needs a shift. He has plenty of good numbers on his track record but hasn’t gotten into a good groove this year. He has also thrown 48 1/3 major league innings this year, surpassing his total for the previous three years combined. Getting him a reset in the bullpen will naturally put a check on his workload.
Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown give the Astros a strong one-two in the rotation, though the remaining spots are more in flux. Cristian Javier has a strong track record but also just returned from a lengthy injury layoff. His first three starts since coming back have resulted in a 5.40 ERA and a 13% walk rate. Spencer Arrighetti has also been limited by injury, having made just six starts with a 6.21 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. Jason Alexander has a 2.91 ERA over his past six starts but his larger track record is that of a journeyman depth swingman.
The struggles from the rotation also have domino effects for the relievers. The bullpen has recently lost Josh Hader, Bennett Sousa and John Rooney to the injured list. With the relief corps weakened, it’s obviously not ideal for the rotation to be struggling at the same time.
There could be another X-factor over the horizon. In another piece at The Athletic, Rome notes that Luis Garcia could be reinstated from the injured list soon. Garcia is in a somewhat similar position to McCullers. He had Tommy John surgery back in May of 2023. He was expected to rejoin the club last year but renewed elbow soreness has repeatedly set him back, so that it’s now been well over two years since his last major league game.
Rome provides some details on the setbacks, noting that Garcia shortened his arm slot in an attempt to work around the soreness. However, that new motion prevented from getting back his previous velocity. Eventually, in time, he has been successfully able to return to his previous arm slot as he has become healthier and gotten farther away from his surgery.
He has pitched 30 innings across nine rehab outings in recent weeks. He has a 3.30 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate in those. In his last outing, he tossed six Triple-A innings, allowing one run while striking out five opponents.
He has only averaged 91.4 miles per hour at the Triple-A level this year. In his previous big league work, he was mostly in the 93-94 mph range. That’s a bit concerning but both Garcia and pitching coach Josh Miller expressed confidence that he would continue to push that up over time.
Garcia seems likely to be reinstated soon. His first rehab outing was on July 7th. A rehab assignment for a pitcher normally has a 30-day maximum but exceptions can be made for one coming back from UCL surgery. A ten-day extension can be granted as many as three times, leading to a total rehab span of 60 days.
Even with that wider window, Garcia would need to be reinstated in early September. Rosters expand September 1st and the Astros don’t have a starter listed for that date. Alexander started today with Javier, Arrighetti and Brown scheduled for the next three games. They could have Valdez pitch on the 1st on regular rest, though Rome notes that McCullers and Garcia are both options for that start. McCullers taking the ball that day would naturally depend upon if he is used as a reliever in the prior days.
Prior to his surgery, Garcia tossed 352 big league innings with a 3.61 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Getting that kind of production in the rotation would obviously be great but the struggles of McCullers and Javier show that it’s not always easy to just come back and succeed after a lengthy rehab period.
Further down the line, assuming the Astros make the playoffs, they will have to decide on who makes playoff starts for them. Brown and Valdez are obviously the first two guys but picking a third or a fourth starter out of this group will likely come down to who pitches the best in the next few weeks.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images