Pitching Depth Is A Delicate Balance

The Astros will likely need another arm or two to shore up the rotation before any reinforcements from the IL arrive.

The Astros have already used ten different starting pitchers this season, and the number is almost certain to increase as the season progresses. It is only June 5, and I am unsure how long we’ll see Ryan Gusto start in the intermediate future.

Number of Starting Pitchers By June 5

• 2021: 8
• 2022: 6
• 2023: 8
• 2024: 8
• 2025: 10

In previous seasons, I criticized Dana Brown for not paying enough attention to the starting rotation during the preceding offseason. This year, though, I’ll give him a bit more leeway as injuries have piled up, in addition to a freak injury involving batting practice. Specifically regarding Spencer Arrighetti, there’s only so much one can plan for. Weird things happen. Instead, more criticism should be directed at the club’s return-to-play protocol, as multiple pitchers are still sidelined due to some questionable decisions, at best, from the organization.

Based on Brown’s comments earlier this week, the Astros appear optimistic about seeing Arrighetti return relatively soon as he ramps up, with a possible August return date in mind for Luis Garcia. Additionally, there’s Cristian Javier and J.P. France to consider, no matter how unlikely it seems at the moment. However, if their recoveries proceed with few to no complications (a significant stretch at this point), that could be a boon for a rotation later in the season that desperately needs another starter or two.

However, as admirable as that optimism may be, there are a couple of problems with it: How does the team account for the missing innings between now and then? Can we give the organization the benefit of the doubt regarding players returning from injury on time?

To the second question, because it is easy to answer, the answer is no, we can’t. Not exclusive to pitchers, the issues with the team’s return-to-play plans run deep across multiple seasons and numerous players. Until proven otherwise, it is difficult to take anything at face value regarding player injuries from the club. They rushed France back unnecessarily. The Kyle Tucker shin fracture situation in 2024 was ridiculous; the debacle behind Yordan Alvarez’s right hand fracture was arguably more preposterous.

For the first question, I think Houston may need to consider options that are currently outside the organization if that narrow margin for error is eliminated. It would behoove them to at least assess the trade market right now. But from my perspective, the plan seems to be to survive as close to the Trade Deadline and August as possible with their internal depth. After all, there are potentially up to four starters who could, in theory, return after the All-Star break. But these are pitchers, and it doesn’t take much for even the best-laid plans to become fraught with problems.

Perhaps Brown and the front office will look to acquire another starter at a low cost through trade, waivers, or free agency. Once again, I believe that this is certainly something they should explore to help consume some innings. It is one thing to hope for something to happen, but that shouldn’t be the only factor in roster building. If the Arrighetti, Garcia, Javier, and France quartet returns later this season, that would be wonderful. You would then have excess pitching depth, which is rarely a disadvantage. There is a balancing act with workloads and expectations among different personalities, but that’s an issue you address only when it actually becomes a problem.

The Astros are 33-28, holding a half-game lead over the Mariners for first place in the AL West. However, there are no guarantees regarding those pitchers or even the arms that are currently healthy. With just over $4 million of payroll space below the first tax threshold, Houston has the capacity to be a bit bold to enhance their postseason prospects. Doing so could make all the difference come August and September.