The 2024 MLB draft will commence Sunday night, and the Astros will make their first pick at 28 overall and pick again in the third round on day two. It is easy to predict who a team will pick when they are drafting in the top five, but it is tough to accurately determine who a team will select at the bottom of the first round. Last year, Dana Brown selected Brice Matthews, who many analysts did not consider a first-round talent. So, it is highly likely that the Astros do not select anyone discussed in this article, but here are a few names to watch out for.
Theo Gillen, Westlake HS, TX, SS.
First off, it is crazy to read that many of this year’s draft prospects were born in 2005. I am in my late 20s, but to think that these kids have no memory of the housing crisis, flip phones, etc, is insane.
Anyway, Theo Gillen is an extremely talented prepster from Austin and has the tools to make an impact at the big-league level. According to MLB.com, he has a disciplined approach, quick hands, and a smooth left-handed swing that could possibly yield 20+ homers a year. The catch is that he has not been healthy the past few seasons.
As a sophomore, he suffered a severe throwing shoulder injury, and as a junior, he hurt his knee. Although he has recovered well enough to impress scouts, many believe his shoulder has not fully recovered. He has the range and athleticism to stay at Short, but there are legitimate concerns that he may have to move to second due to a lack of arm strength.
Gillen has the potential to hit well enough to play left field or second base, but it would be preferable to keep him at short if possible.
Assessment:
Whenever a team drafts at the bottom of the first round, one has to ask, “Why has he fallen this far?”. For Gillen, it is his injury history and concerns over his long-term position. I would avoid drafting a young man who has already had multiple injuries. I hurt my back several times as a college wrestler, and I probably never fully recovered. If a player has an injury history as a high schooler playing around eighty games a year, what are the odds that he will be healthy in his mid-20s when he plays every day?
There is a lot to like about Theo Gillen, but the Astros should pass.
Malcolm Moore, Stanford, C
Malcolm Moore sounds like every fan’s dream. He is a left-handed hitting catcher with excellent control of the strike zone and an overall good bat. He has also demonstrated great stuff off the field at Stanford. His teammates and coaches rave about how hard he works and how much he cares about his success and his teammates.
The only problem is that he may be unable to play catcher at the Majors. He receives the ball well and is pretty athletic, but his arm is described as “fringy” by some scouts. However, he just turned 21 and is among the youngest draft-eligible college players.
If Moore is around for the Astros to pick, then the industry consensus is that he will be a first baseman going forward. The Astros system did a great job getting the most out of Diaz though, so maybe the Astros can make the necessary adjustments to Moore’s game.
Assessment:
MLB front offices never draft on positional needs because knowing what a team will need years in advance is impossible and prospects are valuable as trade capital. Even if a player is blocked several years after he is drafted, he is still valuable in the trade market. The Astros should not let their current situation at the catcher position keep them from drafting the best player available. Perhaps Diaz will steadily improve and be a perennial all-star, but it is also possible that he will fall off.
Malcolm Moore would be a great pick-up, but I doubt he will still be on the board. Out of the 27 teams ahead of the Astros, at least one will believe that they can develop his defensive game.
Brody Brecht, Iowa, RHP
Keith Law of the Athletic projects Houston to draft Brody Brecht in his latest mock draft. He had this to say:
“Brecht is a college pitcher who’s less polished than his peers, with athleticism and arm strength that point to more upside, very much the sort of player Houston general manager Dana Brown has liked in his career running drafts.”
Brody Brecht has a nasty fastball/slider combo, which helped him strike out 14.7 hitters per nine innings. Bear in mind he did this in the BIG 10, which is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. However, there is no doubt that he has elite stuff. The problem is that he does not have good control, walking over five per nine innings this past year. Still, his lanky 6’4” frame gives front offices and scouts a lot to dream about.
Assessment:
“There is no such thing as a pitching prospect” is a term for a reason. I think there is just too much that can go wrong to justify using a first-round pick on a pitcher. The Astros have a good track record of identifying and developing under-the-radar talent, especially out of Latin America. Nobody would kill Brown for making this selection, but this would not be the best pick he could make.
Griffin O’Ferrall, SS, UVA
O’Ferrall may not be a great athlete but has excellent bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He has an average arm in the field but makes up for that with solid footwork and reaction time. He is only 21 years old andhas time to develop, but this is the ultimate high-floor, low-ceiling pick.
He has put on some weight in his time at Virginia, but it is doubtful that he will ever be able to hit for consistent power in pro-ball.
Assessment:
This would be the opposite of the Brice Matthews pick from last year. Griff’s game is much more polished than Matthews, but he lacks the eye-popping athleticism that Brice possesses. Generally, I suspect that Dana Brown wants a little more upside, but something must be said for a prospect who consistently gets the most out of his tools.
Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State, OF
Last year, Brown seemed to favor high-upside college players with a lot of athleticism. Dakota Jordan fits that mold in spades. Jordan has elite bat speed and above-average power.
Although he has had pitch recognition and plate discipline issues, his walk rate improved to 15% this past season.
On defense, Jordan has a lot of work to do, but he has the speed and reaction time to develop into an average pro outfielder.
Assessment:
Out of all the prospects discussed in this article, Jordan is the most likely to be selected by the Astros. He is a young, high upside, college player who has the tools to make Dana Brown dream a bit.
Final Thoughts:
Last year, Brown and company focused on toolsy college players in the first five rounds. I suspect he will do the same in 2024. However, the MLB draft is always hard to predict. I would not be surprised if Brown selects a high school shortstop in the first round.
The Astros had to give up their second-round pick to sign Hader. If Josh Hader is the Astros’ ace reliever for the next five years, no one will remember or care that the team gave up a second-round draft pick to get him… but it sucks not having a complete draft, especially when the farm system is so depleted.
What do you all think? comment below.