It wasn’t that long ago when the Astros re-signed Rafael Montero to a three-year, $34.5 million contract early in the 2022-23 offseason, following a World Series title and James Click’s departure from the organization. Jim Crane’s controversial decision to offer Click only a one-year extension created a void within baseball operations, which likely allowed Montero’s contract offer to come into existence. To be clear, I don’t fault Montero for taking the offer. I would, too. But it was an ill-advised contract at the time for the club and has aged terribly.
The Astros remain responsible for $11.5 million in 2025, the last year of this agreement. Montero’s ascent in 2022 dissipated as quickly as it appeared, with 2023 and 2024 offering a stark reminder of why expensive contracts for volatile relievers aren’t smart business. Unlike José Abreu, who was eventually released last season, Montero accepted his assignment from the organization, pitching in Sugar Land following an in-season demotion and off the 40-man roster. At the time, the odds felt incredibly low that Montero would find himself pitching for the Astros again.
But never say never, I guess. With Ryan Pressly now in Chicago and a lack of veteran depth in the bullpen, Montero has a chance to do a funny thing: Reclaim a role in Houston’s bullpen. I mean, he does have the most service time of any reliever within the organization at the moment. The path is relatively clear for him to rejoin the active roster for Opening Day if he throws well in Spring Training. It doesn’t hurt his chances that he threw a scoreless inning in Friday’s Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, striking out two and walking a batter.
However, before placing Montero back on the active roster, the Astros would likely want to see improvement in a few areas. Velocity immediately comes to mind as his decline from his peak in 2022 was a far cry from where he finished in 2024.
Now 34, it is doubtful whether Montero can ever fully reclaim his 2022 level of velocity. But the right-hander did average around 95.6 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2024, not even a full mph lower than his 96.5 mph average in 2022. The hope, perhaps, is based on him inching closer to 96 mph and adjusting his pitches around that slightly lower velocity.
There is also a concern about his pitch arsenal. Montero throws four pitches — a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider — with his fastballs representing a majority of his usage tendencies. But, according to Stuff+, only his sinker (110) and slider (101) are considered average or better. With that said, Stuff+ not loving his four-seam or changeup isn’t a new development, as that has been the case for a while. Even in 2022, when Montero was worth one-and-a-half wins, his four-seam was considered average at best by the model. But his location has noticeably suffered last year across all of his pitches according to the models.
I wonder if the Astros are working on a couple of different things with Montero. An adjustment to the location, especially his four-seam, seems appropriate. I do recall that pitch catching too much of the zone at times last year. I also wonder if he would benefit from throwing his sinker more and his four-seam less. Again, his sinker was the highest-rated pitch in his arsenal based on the Stuff+ model. Part of his issue last season was possibly due to the fact that he threw his two lowest-rated pitches more often — four-seam and changeup — while decreasing the usage of his best option.
It will also help Montero if he can keep the ball in the yard. In 2022, his home run-to-fly ball ratio was only 5.7%, a career-best in a season in which he has thrown in at least eleven games. But that rate in the past two seasons — 15.3% and 18.6% — has really undermined his performance. Incorporating more of his sinker could lead to more unpredictability that could help the rest of the arsenal and possibly help keep the ball out of the stands. Of course, a poorly thrown sinker can still be launched, as we’ve seen with Framber Valdez a few times, but Montero has to try something different to return to the big leagues.
Ultimately, the Astros will provide Montero with opportunities to prove himself once again. They have $11.5 million reasons to offer him a chance in Spring Training to bounce back and there are openings within the bullpen. At this point, why not? But am I holding out much hope? Honestly, not that much.