Taking a look at potential available starters
Any treatment of the MLB deadline needs to be a comprehensive one. I cannot possibly look at every available player and position in one piece effectively. It is also impossible to speculate on what every team will do. I call this reengineering. Essentially, it starts by looking at teams that are likely sellers and going from there. I have identified nine teams that should definitely be sellers at this point. They are teams far enough out of the playoff hunt for it to make sense.
From there, there are teams that are hovering around .500. They may have a sudden losing streak close to the deadline or they may choose to sell on their own. I hate to speculate on those teams. I’ll allow my colleagues to do that sort of thing. Before we dive into specific names we should look at what the Houston Astros may want to do at the deadline.
As of this writing, the Astros have sizable lead in the NL West. That makes this deadline different than the last two. The Astros have a choice that precipitates the specific position of need. They need to ask themselves if they think it is a bigger need to get to October or to prepare for October. That’s not a spot they found themselves in the past two seasons. It is a luxury and one that could be the driver for a decision that may not make immediate sense in July, but could make sense in October.
I make no bones about the fact that I am an offense first guy. However, I would ignore the needs on the mound at my own peril. It is true that the Astros can expect arms like Spencer Arighetti, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia to return. The open question is whether any of them are a legitimate third starter in a playoff series. I think they could be in 2026, but it might be a bit much to expect three injured starters to come back in August and be ready for that kind of pressure in a six to eight week time period.
So, we will take a look at the starting pitcher market and look at two kinds of pitchers. There are those that are seen as frontline starters now. Obviously, those guys are more expensive. There are aso those that might be more “lightening in a bottle” guys. Those are the guys that the pitching coaches and decision scientists can help get to a gear they hadn’t before. This is not a new strategy. Another Yusei Kikuchi might be a pipe dream, but you could easily see someone perform better than they have up to this point.
Frontline Guys
Sandy Alcantara— 4-9, 91.0 INN, 7.22 ERA, 7.02 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 44.5% Hard, 4.95 xERA
Alcantara probably fits in both categories. He is performing better lately, but the results are still mixed at best. When players come back from TJ surgery, command is usually the last thing to come back. Many pitchers need a year on the mound to work their way back to where they were. His velocity is still there. Alcantara comes with two problems. First, he is signed through 2026 on a five year, 56 million dollar contract. If he doesn’t have it anymore that will be an expensive mistake. More importantly, he was the NL Cy Young Award winner in 2022. You aren’t going to be the only team in on him and you may not have the bullets to get it done.
Mitch Keller— 3-10, 113.0 INN, 3.58 ERA, 7.09 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 42.0% Hard, 3.81 xERA
I don’t think too many people would think of Keller as a frontline arm, but even if the statcast numbers are right, he probably would be our number three starter right now. When you consider the innings it makes sense. He has more innings than Hunter Brown and nearly as many as Framber Valdez. Acquiring him would alleviate some concerns about the bullpen. However, he wouldn’t come cheaply.
Luis Severino— 2-10, 108.2 INN, 5.30 ERA, 6.05 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 42.7% Hard, 4.73 xERA
This is a tale of two pitchers. Severino is 2-2 with a 3.04 in 47.1 INN on the road, He has an 0-8 record with a 7.04 ERA at home. He has been outspoken about his hatred of the ballpark. The A’s signed him through 2026. They are an organization going nowhere and maybe getting a few good prospects for him would help long-term. In either case, he looks like a frontline pitcher in any other uniform.
Lightening in a bottle guys
Charlie Morton— 5-7, 83.1 INN, 5.18 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, 32.9% Hard, 4.16 xERA
Like Alcantara, Morton is a little bit of both. He is on a heater over the last month, so these numbers are not necessarily as grim as they seem. Morton seems too perfect to ignore. He obviously knows the clubhouse and organization. Based on his strikeout numbers and hard hit data he looks more like a frontline starter than the frontline starters. He has a ton of postseason performance. Moreover, he is on a one year deal and might be done after this season. You can get him for less and not impact your long-term outlook at all. It could be another Kikuchi.
German Marquez— 3-10, 89.1 INN, 5.84 ERA, 6.35 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, 47.0% Hard, 5.05 xERA
Like Morton, Marquez got off to a horrible start, but has been pitching better lately. Also like Morton, he is on the last year of his contract. Yet, this one is more of a leap of faith. You have to believe in his stuff and the ability of the coaches to coax the best out of him. You also have to interrupt the Colorado Rockies’ pizza party to get them to pick up the phone and make a deal. Betting on a positive regression seems prudent for a guy pitching on a 21-72 (as of this writing) baseball team. The cost is the only question.
Andrew Heaney— 4-8, 96.0 INN, 4.41 ERA, 6.84 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 41.3% Hard, 4.61 xERA
Heaney seems more “get me through the season” than “lightening in a bottle”. He has some postseason experience, so it wouldn’t be completely nuts, but I’m not sure if he is an upgrade over what you already have. I suppose the idea of having a veteran with an established floor isn’t the craziest idea in the world. What if playing on a better team gets him into the low 4.00s? Is that good enough to be a third starter in a playoff series? This will be a more complex negotiation based on the fact that he is pretty much performing where you would expect him to. So, the Pirates could extort a little extra based on his name and history.
Final Thoughts
This will be a continuing series. I’m not sure a third starter is the best use of the team’s limited resources. Obviously, they have been pretty open about their desire for a left handed bat. A higher profile reliever for the seventh inning is another possibility. If you were to ask me, Morton would be my favorite from this list. It remains to be seen which direction they go.