This time we look at some hitters on the market
Last time I took a look at some potential starting pitching arms on the trade market. It was really a two step process. It involved identifying teams that should be sellers and we came up with nine such teams. We are doing the same thing here with the hitters. However, we added a step of finding positions of need. For instance, I’m sure the Washington Nationals would love to dump Nate Lowe or Josh Bell, but since we already have Christian Walker it would make zero sense on our part.
So, we are focusing our needs to second base and the outfield as it pertains to guys that are available. There will be zero stars in this list. Anyone looking for 2004 Carlos Beltran or 2018 Bryce Harper should probably keep on going. The Astros likely do not have the firepower to pull off such a deal for a variety of reasons.
In terms of numbers, we are looking at the players coming into play Saturday. I certainly hate trying to hit a moving target, but that is the nature of the beast this time of year. There will be two sets of numbers. The first is the garden variety counting numbers most fans pay attention to and then some more sabermetric ones under that. Like with pitchers, we will split these guys into two categories: rentals and long term answers.
Rentals
Cedric Mullins— .215/.291/.405, 13 HR, 38 Runs, 41 RBI, 13 SB
24.1% K, 10.1% BB, .245 BABIP, .308 wOBA, .296 xwOBA
Clack and I have commented on him before. I’m not a fan of this profile because it only makes sense if he is a guy you think will get better with a change of scenery. The numbers above do not indicate that. Jake Meyers’ injury does complicate things because if he is going to miss significant time then getting a center fielder on a rental starts to make more sense. If Meyers’ injury is only temporary then simply stashing him in left field is much less appetizing. Of course, with our training staff and organizational structure, Meyers could be out anywhere between another week to three calendar years.
Marcell Ozuna— .239/.366/.396, 13 HR, 37 Runs, 43 RBI, 0 SB
22.4% K, 16.5% BB, .284 BABIP, .339 wOBA, .377 xwOBA
Again, this only makes sense if Yordan is likely to miss the rest of the season. Given all the available evidence, this has to be a possibility. The Braves are likely to throw in the towel and likely to move anyone not coming back. Ozuna really cannot play in the outfield anymore, so he would be tied down to the DH slot, but the xwOBA indicates he could be a significant bounce back guy. He also doesn’t fit the desire for a left handed bat. I am here to list possibilities and not to make clear endorsements of every single choice.
Luis Robert— .196/.284/.341, 10 HR, 31 Runs, 37 RBI, 23 SB
30.0% K, 10.6% BB, .254 BABIP, .275 wOBA, .322 xwOBA
This is one where it depends on exactly what you think you are getting. He was brilliant in 2023 with 38 dingers and if you could get THAT Robert then every team would sign up. Is he a guy that is being dragged down by a horrible organization or is he just a diminishing asset? His contract makes it possible to cut him loose after the season with two club options. Again, this depends on what you see when you look at him. I’d lean more heavily on your pro scouts to see why the numbers above are happening. If that is who he is then it would be a hard no. If that is the product of a horrible team environment then it could be intriguing.
Long Term Options
Jesus Sanchez— .260/.321/.420, 8 HR, 36 Runs, 32 RBI, 9 SB
20.9% K, 8.1% BB, .308 BABIP, .323 wOBA, .354 xwOBA
I also wrote about him earlier. The good news is that he is producing like an average starter now. So, even if he does nothing other than produce what he has to date he would be an upgrade. Betting on him would be betting on positive regression. Since he is arbitration eligible he would be a part of your outfield rotation through 2027. I’m not sure how everyone feels about that. He is unplayable against lefties, so the counting numbers don’t look that good. That’s one of the main reasons why we have the second line of numbers above.
Bryan Reynolds— .226/.288/.372, 10 HR, 34 Runs, 46 RBI, 3 SB
27.0% K, 7.6% BB, .290 BABIP, .288 wOBA, .352 xwOBA
Right or wrong, Reynolds would be your left fielder for the foreseeable future with such a move. He is signed through 2030 with a club option for 2031. It is at a fairly reasonable rate, so the question is more philosophical. Is he a good player trapped on a bad team or is he a player in decline? The answer is in the eye of the beholder. Old school analysts would tell you that a guy is always at least somewhat a product of his environment. New school analysts are a little more nuanced. Obviously stats like runs and RBI are team dependent but we can probably isolate certain numbers which would be portable. I’ve always been a Reynolds fan, but this situation might be the real life embodiment of the Jake Taylor conversation in “Major League.” I wish we would have had him two or four years ago.
Ryan McMahon— .213/.310/.384, 14 HR, 38 Runs, 30 RBI, 2 SB
32.0% K, 12.1% BB, .288 BABIP, .307 wOBA, .330 xwOBA
He is signed through 2027 and has played extensively at third and second in his career and is a plus defender at both (at least historically). However, it is hard to take anything at face value coming from Denver. Brendan Rodgers had seemingly league average numbers in Denver and has been out for over a month and got re-injured in a rehab game because of course he did. His numbers haven’t been good, so what could we expect from McMahon? I honestly couldn’t tell you. It is a a question of push vs. pull factors of leaving a god awful team vs. leaving the best hitting environment in baseball. He is a career 88 wRC+ guy which doesn’t look promising. However, he would be a veteran left handed bat who could be a solid defensive player at second and third. Would you rather have that than Brice Matthews? I’m really not so sure.
Overall Thoughts
The more you look at the list of names, and the more you dive into their numbers the more you want to walk away. Given the AAA lineup we have been running out there lately, I’m not sure walking away is an option. I think at least some of these guys can give you league average performance or maybe better. The question is how much you are willing to pay for league average performance? Even though the team has a lead in the AL West, it is hard to look at this roster and see a path forward. If you want to project Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, Yordan Alvarez, and even Rodgers back I suppose you could, but at least some of those names could be out for an extended time. Out of the list, I like Reynolds and Sanchez best, but they are more long-term options and likely more expensive. I could see a Mullins or Robert coming cheaper and being a “lightening in a bottle” project. That being said, I can’t give any of these names an overwhelming endorsement.