Where does Carlos Correa stand?
I suppose just about every angle has been exhausted from the Carlos Correa acquisition for your Houston Astros. It would be hard for me to add anything new in terms of current analysis. However, if we look at this trade as a free agent acquisition it suddenly makes a lot more sense. If we discount this season we could count it as a three year, 70 million dollar contract with option years tied on the end.
How many teams would be willing to sign a Correa for 3/70? Then, it occurred to me that he might be worth more to Houston than any other team. Of course, there is the fan favorite angle and the fact that the clubhouse seems to love him, but there is also the spector of long-term marketing.
Nothing would make him more marketable than making the Hall of Fame in an Astros uniform. He has only the three plus seasons out of a Houston uniform. If he manages to finish the contract in an Astros uniform that means an additional seven seasons in an Astros uniform according to his contract. The total value of the contract minus the Twins contributions is 140 million over seven seasons. That seems a reasonable enough investment if he turns out to be a Hall of Famer. The question is whether he will be.
For those new to the Hall of Fame index, what we have done is take the Hall of Famers and eliminated players on the upper and lower end of the scale. Anyone more than 20 percent above or below the median have been eliminated. So, what we have left is the garden variety Hall of Famer. The rest represent the top four currently active shortstops.
Obviously, none of them are where the median Hall of Fame shortstop are, but most of them are in their prime or at least close to it. So, we can look and see what any of them might need to get there. If Correa averages a mere 15 home runs, 100 hits, 60 runs and RBI a season for the next seven seasons then he will be over 1000 runs and RBI and close to 2000 hits. He obviously already beats the median in home runs. So, that gets him in the neighborhood.
The same could be said of Trea Turner and Corey Seager. Lindor on the other hand is a lot closer to the mark as he sits. You give him three or four more full seasons and he probably will have the counting numbers necessary. Most of that is due to more durability. As people say, the best ability is availability.
I have done these articles before, but we get new readers every day. The index numbers roughly reveal the same as the counting numbers. Lindor is ahead of the other three and seems like he’s close to a lock to get in. Mind you, being even or better than the median doesn’t automatically make one a Hall of Famer. Being short of that doesn’t mean you aren’t. However, the median seems like a pretty good place to start. If you are near the median in most of the categories then you probably are a Hall of Famer.
Correa is about 25 wins short in the career value category and about 15 short in peak value. If he is able to play those seven seasons then getting 25 additional wins seems perfectly reasonable. That is between three and four wins a season. If a couple of those are five win seasons then his peak value will also go up.
Seager and Turner are in more or less the same boat. Given their general performance the main question is health. Even a mediocre regular is worth between two and three wins a season. Give those players between two and three wins every year for the next six or seven seasons and you are looking at a group of Hall of Famers.
This is what I would call the Craig Biggio conundrum. For most HOF voters, the counting numbers are key. Those only go up. However, the reality is that while players accrue the counting numbers they often see their value numbers leak. Correa is ahead of the curve or close to it according to the offensive numbers. Yet, it seems a lot more likely that he will continue to produce closer to the league average for the remaining seasons. The more seasons he plays the lower those numbers end up being.
Yet, the runs created numbers will continue to rise. If he averages even just 60 runs created in each of the next seven seasons he will end up with well over 1100. Seeing him end up with over 1200 seems like a reasonable get if he remains healthy. Yet, his OPS+ will likely resemble the HOF median.
Of course, the same dilemma faces the other players as well. The same thing happens on the defensive end. The longer you play the more decline you see. So, for players seeking the ultimate honor, there is a delicate balance between playing as long as you can and quitting while you are still near the top of your game.
This is obviously an Astros centric site. So, the Correa dilemma in the fielding department is slightly different than on the offensive end. If his move to third is long-term then we could see something different. He could end up holding his Rfield value or exceeding it at third base even as he ages. Yet, the DWAR and FG can’t help but take a hit. The fourth category is really a throw in.
However, it is more likely that he will improve in that category as well. If we were to use Outs above average we would have an incomplete picture, but it will probably look better than using UZR. So, his fielding legacy will largely depend on which number you look at it. It is highly possible that he could perform at a Gold Glove level at third base and come out looking better reputation wise.
Lindor is more likely to stick at short, so he is more likely to see decline. It comes down to a question of whether you want to compare a player to players at his position or the whole baseball universe. There are no positions more valuable than short defensively. So, Correa will get dinged there.
In his landmark book “Whatever happened to the Hall of Fame?” Bill James asked a couple of key questions. How often was the best player in the league at his position and how often was he the best player in the league? You can also ask about a particular team, but these are all permutations of the same question. How often was the player dominant?
Mind you, the answer doesn’t have to be yes to any of those questions. Some players got into Cooperstown without answering yes to any of those questions. Yet, Correa had the most BWAR in the American League in 2021. Of course, that happened to be the year he became a free agent. It’s weird how that works.
He had 3.0 DWAR (which led the AL) that season and won the Platinum Glove award for the best fielder at any position. The awards test helps us answer the question by providing a point system for how high you finished in the MVP voting or in year to year BWAR. Maybe he gets back into the hunt with a healthy season. Maybe he never gets back into the top ten ever again. Having at least one sabermetric MVP probably helps his candidacy some.
No one can compare with Derek Jeter’s playoff resume at shortstop, but given the changes in the playoff format, there is a chance that Correa can get close. Simply getting through the league playoffs can require as many as 15 games. That would be roughly 60 plate appearances by itself. If you go into a World Series that can be anywhere from 20 to 30 additional plate appearances.
So, given the Astros general level of competitiveness and the state of the playoffs, an additional 200 playoff plate appearances in the next seven seasons. Add an additional ten home runs, 30 runs and RBI and suddenly you are talking about the second best playoff shortstop ever.
Does that make him a Hall of Famer? I suppose it depends on what we see in the other categories. Fame is often a fleeting thing and some voters will get swayed by big moments. Correa has already had some of those and could have more as soon as this season. Suffice it to say, there are considerations beyond simple wins and losses at play here. There is an added bonus that comes when a legend begins and ends his career with a team. He will never approach Altuve territory, but he can get pretty close.