A six-man rotation might be necessary for a notable portion of May, but Ronel Blanco’s future role could look different past that point if certain performance trends continue.
The Astros expect Lance McCullers Jr. to return to the active roster soon. How soon? I’d speculate around the first full week of May, just in time for a 17-game stretch over 17 days (May 9 through May 25). In that scenario, we can safely assume McCullers Jr. will take one of the spots in the starting rotation, joining Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, and Ryan Gusto. The odds seem favorable from my vantage point that he will join those five to create a temporary six-man starting rotation throughout that 17-game stretch with no scheduled off days.
What happens after that point in time depends on the health of the club’s arms. Obviously, McCullers Jr. has had a challenging time returning to the mound, so the Astros will monitor his workload closely. Additionally, there are no guarantees regarding any pitcher’s health. However, if the rotation makes it through most of May with few or no issues, it seems reasonable to revert to a five-man staff. The question at that juncture becomes who will remain a starter and who will receive a different assignment.
At first glance, Valdez, Brown, McCullers Jr., and Wesneski all appear as locks in any projected rotation, health and performance permitting. That leaves possibly one full-time starting role between two pitchers on regular rest: Blanco and Gusto. Yes, it is one of those “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there” situations. A lot can change between now and then. But I am not entirely sure whether it will be Blanco or Gusto in that fifth starter role.
Blanco, of course, had a strong season in 2024, with a 2.80 ERA and was worth slightly more than two wins. His peripherals were never as optimistic, but his second half saw some regression as his innings total easily climbed to a career-high (167 1⁄3 IP). Overall, it was a tremendously successful season for Blanco. That same success, however, has eluded the right-hander to start this season, with a 5.08 ERA in his 28 2⁄3 innings, reasonably close to his FIP (5.03) and not too far from his xFIP (4.63). A combination of a higher BABIP, a lower strikeout rate, and fewer groundballs all play a role in this regression. From the outside looking in, it is also why he is possibly the odd man out when the rotation starts to become crowded.
Gusto, on the other hand, has looked more impressive in his first 22 2⁄3 innings to start his season. Yes, we’re talking about small samples for both pitchers, not even eclipsing 30 innings individually. Keep that in mind. But Gusto’s first two starts — 14 2⁄3 innings, 3.68 ERA, two walks, and 14 strikeouts — stand out at the moment. His stuff arguably looks better than Blanco’s at the moment, featuring a four-seam fastball that is among the best in baseball already by Run Value.
For comparison’s sake, Blanco’s four-seam fastball has the lowest Run Value on Houston’s staff (-4 runs) this season. In fact, none of his pitches are currently grading well in terms of Run Value or Stuff+, while Gusto’s are performing better at this point. If these trends continue, the Astros may need to decide to keep Gusto in the rotation while moving Blanco to the bullpen.
To be fair to either pitcher, I believe their stuff will shine as a reliever. We saw that come to fruition last season with Blanco, albeit in a small sample size. Gusto experienced some impressive moments as a reliever this season. This idea is nearly universal among pitchers, as relievers can exert maximum effort on all of their pitches. But Gusto may have the edge when looking under the hood.
Will Blanco eventually be moved to the bullpen? Possibly. There are many moving parts in this pitching staff at the moment, including McCullers Jr.’s return, the health of other pitchers, and how Gusto performs in the near future. I think there is an advantage to moving him to the bullpen while keeping Gusto in the rotation when we head into late May, based simply on how their pitches look at this moment—something to keep in mind for the next month.