We’re now in May and starting to get a better sense of the 2025 Astros, including their strengths and weaknesses.
The lineup has improved in recent weeks, thankfully inching closer to average territory. Once Yordan Alvarez hits, well, like Yordan Alvarez, the lineup should be in decent shape. Not great, mind you, but certainly better. You can certainly make an argument that they need at least one more above-average bat, though.
But realistically, the lineup won’t be the primary reason if this team succeeds in 2025. Instead, as the results have indicated so far, this team’s identity is increasingly tied to its run prevention abilities. The pitching staff, for example, has started the season as one of the best in baseball, with only three staffs exceeding it in wins slightly over a month into the season.
- Mets: 6.4 fWAR
- Padres: 5.0 fWAR
- Rangers: 4.7 fWAR
- Astros: 4.6 fWAR
One reason I chose FIP in the above graph was to eliminate factors that a pitcher doesn’t control. I wanted to emphasize that the pitching staff has performed well on its own merits. Additionally, I believe the team’s defense deserves attention on its own. And let me tell you, this defense looks much better than it has in recent years.
Defensive metrics remain somewhat fickle. There is considerable variance, particularly at this stage of the season, so it doesn’t make sense to place too much emphasis on these numbers. However, the statistics so far at least suggest that this defense has the potential to be one of the stronger units in baseball this season.
- OAA (Outs Above Average): 18 (2nd in baseball)
- DRS: 10 (8th in baseball)
- FRV (Fielding Run Value): 9 (2nd in baseball)
For context, the Astros had a -2 FRV in 2024 across all positions, along with a 1 DRS and -3 OAA. For a club that will need reliable run prevention, both on the mound and in the field, this development is certainly encouraging. Ever since the shift was limited before the 2023 season, Houston has had some defensive issues at various positions. First base was a wasteland with José Abreu and company. Christian Walker at least makes that position less of a problem. Jose Altuve’s decline as a second baseman defensively coincided with the shift restrictions. The Astros are simply a better defensive team with Brendan Rodgers or Mauricio Dubón at second base. For example, Houston, by OAA, had the fourth-worst second base defense in 2024 (minus 4). Small sample caveat applies here, but their second base defense by OAA (plus-7) now ranks as the best in baseball.
A key reason why the Astros won the World Series in 2022 was, in large part, due to their run prevention. The team defense that season, with the shift included, was crucial in that development. While the defense has regressed in the following two seasons, the first month of the 2025 season has seen a rebound. Let’s see if it continues.