So much for easing back into the regular season. Massive divisional matchup in Seattle.
Mariners’ Season to Date: In some respects, 2025 is going like 2024. The Mariners figured that their powerful rotation and strong pitching would carry them to their first division title since 2001 in 2025, much like 2024. They hoped that some of their bats might provide just enough offense to provide some support for that pitching staff, just like 2024. However, injuries to key starters derailed some of those early plans. Stalwarts, like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, missed time due to injuries. What has been surprising is that Seattle is making headlines due to their offense. Led by a career season from C Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh, Seattle is making as much noise with their bats as their arms. The Mariners aren’t being done in by their injured arms yet. Like 2024, they’ve also experienced a yo-yo of a season. Coming into June, they held the lead in the AL West, but exit the All-Star Break down 5.0 games to the Astros.
Mariners Standings:
- 51-45 (2nd AL West) 5.0 GB, 1.5 GB lead for final AL Wild Card
- Home Record: 25-21 (Astros: 23-21 Road Record)
- Record vs. AL West: 17-11 (Astros: 15-11)
- Last 10: 6-4 (LWWWLLLWWW) (HOU: 4-6 (LWWWLLLLWL))
- 2025 Record vs. Houston (3-4: Won 2-1 series @ Seattle (April 7-9), Lost 1-3 series @ HOU (May 22-25))
- All-Time Record: 92-134
- Post-Season: 0-3 (2022 ALDS)
Mariners Leaders
Offense:
- HR: Cal Raleigh (38)
- RBI: Cal Raleigh (82)
- BA: JP Crawford (.290)
- OPS: Cal Raleigh (1.010)
Pitching:
- ERA: Brian Woo (2.75)
- Wins: Brian Woo (8)
- Saves: Andres Munoz (21)
- Strikeouts: Brian Woo (109)
Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)
- Friday, July 18 @9:10 p.m. CDT: Brandon Walter (1-2, 3.98 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (6-5, 3.41 ERA) [Regional Broadcasts (SCHN/ROOT Sports NW); Streaming via Fubo/DIRECTV STREAM/MLB.TV] [Radio: 790AM, FM 94.5, KLAT 1010 AM/Seattle Sports 710AM, SeattleSports.com]
- Saturday, July 19 @ 8:40 p.m. CDT: Lance McCullers (2-4, 6.48 ERA) vs. George Kirby (4-4, 4.50 ERA) [National Broadcast: MLB TV] [Regional Broadcasts (SCHN/ROOT Sports NW); Streaming via Fubo/DIRECTV STREAM/MLB.TV] [Radio: 790AM, FM 94.5, KLAT 1010 AM/Seattle Sports 710AM, SeattleSports.com]
- Sunday, July 20 @ 3:10 p.m. CDT: Framber Valdez (10-4, 2.75 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (2-3, 3.39 ERA) [Regional Broadcasts (SCHN/ROOT Sports NW); Streaming via Fubo/DIRECTV STREAM/MLB.TV] [Radio: 790AM, FM 94.5, KLAT 1010 AM/Seattle Sports 710AM, SeattleSports.com]
Mariners Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)
- C: Cal Raleigh
- 1B: Donovan Solano
- 2B: Cole Young
- 3B: Ben Williamson
- SS: J.P. Crawford
- LF: Randy Arozarena
- CF: Julio Rodriguez
- RF: Dominic Canzone
- DH: Jorge Polanco
Mariners Offense: For 2025, it begins and ends with Big Dumper. Raleigh is on a historic tear, currently on pace to set records for HRs by a catcher in a single season, Raleigh might hit the 60 HR mark, making him the 1st person to register that since Aaron Judge in 2022. Mostly on the power of the Big Dumper, Seattle is in the top 10 the league leaders in runs scored (8th), slugging percentage (7th), OPS (7th) and homers (6th). While their batting average is a bit below the power numbers (13th), the bats are at least popping at a better rate than last season. While all the headlines scream Big Dumper, there are some other guys who wield the lumber for the Mariners. JP Crawford is hitting for average. Julio Rodriguez seems primed for his patented second half surge and Randy Arozarena is also playing up to his reputation from Tampa Bay. The Mariners’ running game is solid, ranking 12th in the majors in stolen bases.
Mariners Pitching/Defense: Coming into the season, if you saw that Seattle was in the top 10 in most of the key offensive categories, you might think that the Mariners were running away with the AL West. Then you look at the 2025 pitching. It is not bad but being middle of the pack (ERA (16th), WHIP (16th), BAA (16th) is not where you would expect to see Seattle. Injuries have played their part. However, there has been some ineffectiveness from key arms/relying on replacement arms in the rotation. Luis Castillo is pitching ok, but not quite up to his previous ace billing. That to go along with injuries to some of the starters earlier this season. Yet, those three are coming back/getting back to their potential. At least Houston dodges Brian Woo (at least if the projections hold), who has been their best starter. The Mariners bullpen is not too shabby, checking in at 10th in ERA (3.64). They are led by All-Star closer Andres Munoz, he of 21 saves and a 1.50 ERA/.89 WHIP. Other bullpen arms include Carlos Vargas (3.43 ERA/1.46 WHIP) and Eduard Bazardo (2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP). The Mariners rank 6th in fielding, so even if the rotation isn’t as dominant as expected, they still play pretty good defense.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Most Dangerous Player: CF Julio Rodriguez. Why him? Mainly due to his historic Astros-killing abilities (and I can’t spend all preview talking about Big Dumper…I’ll leave that for the national press). An All-Star who opted out ‘cause he didn’t want to play, but carrying a sub-.700 OPS at one point, he doesn’t scream threat. However, Rodriguez is known for being a second-half danger. Career numbers against Houston: .243 BA, 6 HRs, 24 RBIs. His play against the Astros in 2023 (13 games: .268 BA, 15 Hits, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, including a 17-hits-in-4-games stretch against Houston) kept that team on edge, requiring the most extreme of efforts to hold him and the Mariners off from taking the AL West. Not that Big Dumper (nope, can’t escape it) couldn’t be a problem for Houston. He certainly can. However, it is Rodriguez’s time of year, so the Astros should be ready to work around him as much as possible.
Injuries: For Seattle, here’s who’s out:
- SP Bryce Miller (Elbow), 15 Day IL. Estimated return: Sometime in July
- RF Victor Robles (Shoulder), 60 Day IL. Estimated return: September 2025
- 2B Ryan Bliss (Bicep), 60 Day IL. Estimated return: 2026
- RP Collin Snider (Forearm), 15 Day IL. Estimated return: Mid/Late July
Maybe not as prominent as Houston, now that they got some of their key arms back, but they will be praying/sacrificing/dancing around the New Age fire to keep their top players off the IL for the stretch run.
Series Outlook: Seattle was a boom-or-bust team right before the break. They swept the Pirates, blanking them in all 3 games, only to fly out East and get swept by the Yankees in a 3-game set (to include blowing a 5-0 lead of a no-hitter in the 7th to lose in extra innings), then flying to league-leading Detroit, only to sweep all 3 games, included the tattooing of SPs Mize and Skubal. All of that, and the Mariners remain 5.0 games back to open the post-All-Star stretch. They can’t reclaim the division lead in this series, but a series win or sweep could be a massive spark for the 2nd half. Seattle hopes to put memories of their summer 2024 collapse behind them. Houston stumbled into the All-Star Break, and hopes that the break offered the chance for others to get back into the lineup. Given how they went into the All-Star Break, likely Houston will consider avoiding a sweep a strategic win.