Whenever I think of the 2022 Astros, other than the World Series title, I remember that team’s remarkable run prevention. Since 2010, excluding the shortened 2020 season, only the 2022 Dodgers allowed fewer earned runs (451) than Houston that same year (465) across a full season. While the Astros’ lineup was still among the top five in wRC+ (113) and top eight in runs scored (737), the pitching staff put that roster over the top. It was simply an incredible staff and possibly the best staff in club history, with the 2018 staff also in the conversation.
Fast forward three years, and parts of that 2022 pitching staff are still around, namely Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., and Bryan Abreu. Hunter Brown had a cup or two of coffee in 2022 (20 1⁄3 innings in the regular season, only 3 2⁄3 in the postseason). Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier remain on the team, but all are on the IL following Tommy John surgeries. In terms of active pitchers, there has been quite a bit of turnover. Even the general manager has changed, with Dana Brown replacing James Click. But like the roster, there are shades of that 2022 season with how this team is pitching in 2025.
Shades of 2022
2025: 3.56 R/G
2022: 3.20 R/G
2025: 0.99 HR9
2022: 0.83 HR9
2025: 9.87 SO/G
2022: 9.41 SO/G
*2025 pitching metrics as of June 16, 2025
Unlike the 2022 Astros, the 2025 staff lacks a top-five or even top-ten lineup to support their efforts. We’re now in the middle of June, and Houston ranks 14th in wRC+ (102) and 21st in runs scored (293). However, the lineup is poised to improve once Yordan Alvarez returns, hopefully healthy, and they have shown improvement at the plate since May 1 (110 wRC+, 176 runs scored). But even a healthy Alvarez can only fix so much, and the Astros need another left-handed bat with some power.
That said, this pitching staff will determine how far the team goes for the remainder of the season. Injuries have played a significant role for this year’s team, with Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and McCullers Jr. all on the IL. Only Arrighetti and McCullers Jr. are expected back this season. It helps that Garcia and Javier might return as well, but that is just a bonus when it happens. However, the internal depth has helped support this staff, with Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter, and Ryan Gusto pitching well enough considering the circumstances. It certainly helps to have Valdez and Brown atop the rotation, a dynamic one-two punch. But give the pitching lab and the pitchers credit, as the organization has continued to churn out players who contribute to a winning club.
Due to all the injuries, even with reinforcements coming later this summer, it will likely hinder this year’s staff from matching the production of the 2022 staff. By the metrics, the 2022 staff allowed fewer walks and runs per game, with less damage done via home runs. The 2025 staff, however, has a higher strikeout rate by 1.2%, which I found a little unexpected. One of the key differences lies within the ground ball rate, with the staff three years ago posting a higher rate (42.7%) compared to this season thus far (39.4%). Fly balls, in turn, have climbed, which could help explain the difference in runs per game allowed. There isn’t much difference between the two pitching staffs, though, as they have comparable numbers across multiple categories.
However, I have some concerns about how well the depth will hold up over the next month to six weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Adding another starter could prove wise, especially if Garcia and/or Javier experience a setback in their rehab process. The 2022 staff didn’t experience the same level of injuries, in terms of severity or duration. Only one Major League pitcher (Josh James) was lost for the season due to injury that year. The Astros in 2025 have already lost four starters to injuries, with two lost for the season. All things considered, this year’s pitching staff has been nothing short of tremendous thus far. You wouldn’t be wrong if you’re reminded about the 2022 season with this year’s assortment of pitchers. I hope they continue to elicit positive memories of that special season for the right reasons.