BABIP? Velocity? Age? How about all of the above?
Reliever volatility strikes again, y’all—end of post.
Of course, I’m only half-kidding. While it is easy to point at a struggling reliever and make a quick claim about this kind of thing, and can sometimes be right, it is always fun to dig deeper into the why behind the volatility. Is fun the right word? In this case, is even volatility the right word? How about age-related regression, instead?
If you closely follow the Astros or the sport of baseball, then Ryan Pressly’s struggles this season aren’t exactly new. A 5.40 ERA in 25 innings is unsightly even for early June, especially for someone with Pressly’s reputation. But 25 innings still represents a fairly small sample. It is true that Pressly’s peripherals — 3.82 xERA, 2.63 FIP, and 2.77 xFIP — paint a better picture. There’s also his .417 BABIP, well above his .295 career average. Walks aren’t an obvious issue. The odds are that he won’t remain this bad. With that said, he is also 35 and time remains undefeated.
When also accounting for last season’s second-half struggles — a 5.19 ERA in 26 innings — it is becoming clear that Pressly hasn’t been the same pitcher for a while. Strikeouts are slightly higher than last season but remain depressed compared to 2021 and 2022. Those recent results no longer constitute a simple slump when viewed alongside his 2024 struggles. Perhaps a prolonged one, which is certainly possible. But it also begs the question of whether Pressly is entering a decline phase, or, worse, he’s already in a full-fledged one. There are a few indications that this is indeed the case. First, there’s lower four-seam fastball velocity.
In 2021, Pressly’s average four-seam velocity was around 95.4 mph, declining to 94.5 mph in 2022. However, in 2023, Pressly’s average four-seam velocity slightly improved, reaching 94.7 mph. On the one hand, we can interpret that reading as a good thing. I mean, the decline was reversed, even by a minimal amount. That’s typically a positive sign. At least the decline was held off for about a year. But when we examine the release speed data more closely, we’ll notice two points: Pressly’s average four-seam velocity in 2024 has taken another sharp decline, now around 94 mph, and the trend surrounding the distribution of this velocity. To help illustrate this point, let’s look at the rate of Pressly’s four-seam fastballs that were thrown with a velocity equal to or greater than 95 mph. Hint: It isn’t encouraging.
Rate of Four-Seam Fastballs Thrown Greater Than or Equal To 95 mph
2021: 26.5%
2022: 12.2%
2023: 9.7%
2024: 4.1%
Again, Pressly is 35 years old, so we should expect some decline to make its presence known. He is, after all, on the other side of the aging curve. But velocity isn’t the only factor. There are other considerations that we need to take into account. We also have to look at how his stuff and location are graded out. First, by Stuff+ across all his pitches thrown.
A key difference compared to past seasons according to Stuff+ was, to no surprise, Pressly’s four-seam fastball, declining from 126 in 2023 to 100 this season. In fact, all of Pressly’s pitches have deteriorated in this respect, even if all of his pitches are still considered above average. His curveball has seen a sharper decline than his fastball, possibly due to less vertical break than previously shown. To be clear, it only takes around 80 pitches for Stuff+ to become reliable, so these figures carry more authority than other metrics at this juncture of the season.
Now, by Location+.
FanGraphs
Unlike Stuff+, which again needs roughly 80 pitches, Location+ requires a much larger sample of around 400 pitches to become reliable. That’s something to keep in mind, but it is also worth pointing out that only his slider has experienced a decline by Location+. This indicator tracks how Pressly has had issues with his slider control this season compared to recent years. Incidentally, Pressly’s slider is arguably catching too much of the zone this season, with his in-zone rate currently sitting around 50%. For reference, it was 44.4% in 2021, 37.4% in 2022, and 47.6% in 2023. It is also now having issues putting away opposing hitters.
PutAway%:
41.8% in 2022
27% in 2023
21.1% in 2024
In other words, his slider is a bit out of sorts right now. The good news on this front is that his expected stats are more in line with past seasons than the elevated levels this season. But there is reason to hope on this front, especially if he refines his command. The true problem pitch is, again, Pressly’s four-seam fastball, especially as his barrel rate against the pitch has noticeably jumped up to 15.8%, which would be a career-high if the season finished today. For context, it was only 2.3% in 2023. That figure was well below his career average, but it highlights the stark difference from last year to this season. That tracks as opposing hitters are slugging .571 against it this season, compared to .308 last year. Line drives are also up, now 36.8% compared to 20% two seasons ago. Unlike his slider, however, Pressly’s four-seam expected stats still aren’t great, with an xSLG of .519.
Ultimately, there is a mixed bag here with Pressly. His peripherals suggest he has pitched better than his actual numbers. I keep thinking back to his elevated BABIP, which ought to regress sooner or later. On the other hand, the velocity decline on his four-seam appears real and will likely continue in the future. His four-seam is a lesser version of itself at the moment, with less velocity and changes to its movement profile. Pitch quality is down across the board. More line drives in addition to fewer groundballs and fewer strikeouts. Even when his BABIP does regress, I think there ought to be a real concern about the quality of contact he is now allowing. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think he’ll remain this bad, but his best days are likely behind him now barring a turnaround. We should recalibrate our expectations as such.